#财经新势力#
The pace of the times is flying, and there is a sense of impermanence.
At this time last year, Ren Zeping was still shouting that China's economy would lead the world in the second half of the year, and China's A-share market would also lead the global securities market. The previous slogan, I chose to believe, because the 100,000 people telephone work conference in May last year was too hard, and all the policies that could be exhausted were exhausted. The latter slogan must have reversed the direction.
What about this year?
The overall feeling is more pessimistic, but the mainstream media is still very calm, predicting a small explosion of China's economy in August. The question is, by what? In addition to the GDP growth rate, all kinds of data are still very weak, why is the mainstream media so confident?
Could it be that a big release of water is already on the way?
Why there is such speculation, this is a very simple logic, since the economy is deflationary, CPI and PPI have a deflationary trend, then, will continue to issue money, so that finance, enterprises, individuals have money.
People will say that the bank's personal money is the world's first, which means that it is not too little money, but that the money is not flowing. The question is here, a large amount of money lying in the bank, whose money is it?
Although there is a lack of solid data support, based on various information, it is mainly the money of the middle and upper income class. Especially the high-net-worth group, according to Hurun statistics, there are 2.07 million in the country, with net assets as high as 96 trillion yuan, close to the total annual national GDP, if this huge asset can not be guided to investment, nor can it be guided to real estate such as large consumption, it has become Lu Qiyuan said "sunk capital".
In this way, inflation has an "intention".
Li Daokui of Tsinghua has an interesting saying, he believes that the investment money should be turned to the government to stimulate consumption; Consumption will be in the form of taxes, part of it, and even in repeated flows, most of it, back into the hands of finance, the people have money, enterprises are alive, supply and demand are balanced, demand is there, and endogenous force is there.
How perfect a idea?
In fact, there is really no need to be so troublesome, what is really to do is how to force out the silent deposits of high net worth in the bank, once the speed of inflation accelerates, the value preservation function of the property market will return, the rich must choose in large consumption, investment and depreciation, and an economic war without gunsmoke begins. As Meng Xiaosu said, not too much, as long as five trillion yuan is forced out, real estate will pick up, and bring up a long production chain, and the overall economy will also recover.
Will inflation harm ordinary people?
Then continue to print money, tilt towards the middle and low consumer groups, increase the second distribution income of large sharing, thoroughly improve social security mechanisms such as medical care, education, pension, and employment, so that the people will have no worries and become the beneficiaries of inflation, and the liabilities of local and state-owned enterprises will also be diluted. Real estate is the lifeblood of local finances, real estate is up, the income of local finances is also preserved, and everything is in order.
Believe it or not, I don't know, I believe: inflation is already on the way.