The Russian National Space Group released news on the 20th that preliminary analysis results showed that due to the deviation between the actual parameters and the predetermined parameters, the Russian "Luna-25" probe deviated from the intended orbit and lost contact after colliding with the lunar surface. Currently, an interdepartmental committee is investigating the cause of the accident.
Although the final investigation results have not yet been released, Russian media quoted Russian aerospace scientists as saying, put forward several possibilities for the cause of the accident, and talked about the impact of the accident on the Russian moon landing.
Missing contact with the moon
According to the Russian National Space Group, according to the flight plan, the control center should send a pulse signal to send the probe into the landing orbit on the 19th, and then the probe will descend to the moon in a perilunar elliptical orbit.
However, on the afternoon of the 19th Moscow time, communication between the ground and the probe was interrupted. On the 19th and 20th, the relevant departments searched for the detector and tried unsuccessfully to contact it.
Preliminary analysis showed that the actual pulse parameters deviated from the calculation, causing the probe to enter an uncertain orbit and eventually lose contact with the moon. The Russian side has set up an interdepartmental commission to investigate the cause of the accident.
The outside world noticed that before the accident, the detector had technical problems for a while. The Russian National Space Group announced on the 19th that the probe was abnormal when performing orbit change control and entering the landing preparation orbit on the same day, and could not operate according to the predetermined parameters.
The "Luna-25" probe was launched on the "Soyuz-2.1B" carrier rocket from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Oblast in the Russian Far East, and successfully entered lunar orbit on the 16th.
According to previous plans, the "Luna-25" probe is expected to make a soft landing near Boguslavsky Crater at the south pole of the moon on the 21st. If successful, Luna-25 would be the first probe in human history to land at the south pole of the moon.
Reason conjecture
Although the final findings have not yet been released, Russian space scientists believe that the mission's failure may be related to the following factors.
First, parameter deviation.
Space technologist Andrei Yemeryanov said that atmospheric parameters, gravitational field parameters are never ideal, there are always fluctuations of one kind or another. The task of modern astronauts and engineers is to set acceptable deviation parameters as close as possible to the preset orbit.
Nastein Esmont, chief researcher of the Institute of Space and Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that for experts, not everything went according to plan. When changing orbit, some preset parameters are obtained, but whether the landing of the final critical stage is carried out according to the parameters is still risky.
The second is engine failure.
Spacecraft expert Ilya Ovchinnikov said the Luna-25 appeared to have failed when it landed. The probe was supposed to descend to the moon in an elliptical orbit 18 kilometers from perilous, but it felt like it plunged headlong. This means that the engine may be working longer than necessary. "It's a possibility. I can only guess. ”
Ovchinnikov said this could happen automatically — turning off the power train at the wrong time, or it could be the result of a calculation error, which remains to be fully analyzed.
Nastan Esmont also pointed out that the probe's engine did not operate as designed to adjust the course. "The last launch was to send the probe to the landing preparation orbit, but it did not go as planned, maybe there was a problem with the thrust, or the direction was wrong."
The third is the issue of scheduling.
Nastan Esmont said the decision-makers who issued the instructions to dispatch the probe's landing should have evaluated more carefully whether the expected parameters were met and whether the error value was acceptable.
"The detector was a worrying sign that was noticed even before it tried to enter orbit... Managers may have made the mistake of letting the probe land prematurely. The expert said the probe could have made "a few more turns" in orbit, eliminating anomalies before landing carefully.
Fourth, personnel adjustment.
Andrei Yemeryanov said, "In retrospect, our previous moon landing took place almost 50 years ago. Now there are new employees, new electronics, new hardware and software. All this needs to be relearned... You have to realize that we have different people at work. In any case, the human factor has an impact. ”
Alexander Baulin, editor-in-chief of the Russian space media Pro Universe, said that over the past 47 years, designers, engineers, maintenance personnel have changed from generation to generation, and young engineers have been able to complete most tasks - from orbit to the interstellar space station - but not always successfully. "For example, the failed Phobos Soil Mars rover in 2011, when it was left in low Earth orbit."
Influence geometry?
Russian analysts believe that the incident may first affect Russia's plan to land on the south pole of the moon, or launch new rockets in a few years.
Nastan Esmont's estimate is "one to two years from now." He also noted that the race to land on the moon is fierce at the moment, and "there are many countries lining up to go to the moon." ”
Russian TV "Tsargrad" pointed out that "Luna-25" is not only a very important project, it is also a plan for Russia to return to the lunar race in a sense.
The TV station said that although Western media and Ukraine "gloated" about Russia's failure to land on the moon, remember three things: First, there are few countries in the world that can go to the moon, and Russia is one of them. Second, there is a Russian proverb: the first bread is burnt (everything is difficult at the beginning), we have not been to the moon for more than 40 years. Thirdly, despite the war and Western sanctions, Russia's space program has been very successful.
"So we can easily figure out what caused this failure and then launch the next lunar spacecraft." The station said.
Russian space historians recall that Luna-9 achieved a soft landing on the moon in 1966, the Soviet Union did not succeed until its 12th attempt, and the United States also tasted the bitter fruit of three failures before landing safely. Look at the Israeli and Indian astronauts, who have also had trouble trying to land on the moon. In the past five years alone, half of the 18 missions to the moon have been considered partial or complete failures... These are all natural and the conditions that any astronaut will experience.
Alexander Bahurin said Russia believes it can still build its own rockets, interstellar space stations and lunar exploration equipment in the event of sanctions. "It's important because sanctions go on for a long time. And the next similar lunar mission is expected to be even more difficult. ”
"It is important now that the space program must move forward with greater intensity and learn from its failures." Alexander Baulin said.
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Column editor-in-chief: Yang Liqun Text editor: Yang Liqun Title image source: Visual China Photo editor: Zhu Jun
Source: Author: Zhang Quan