The harsher the reality is than fantasy, the harder it is to accept.
⬆Shenzhen.
This year, many economic bloggers sang about the United States on platforms such as Bilibili and public accounts, and everyone woke up, the current US economy is very good, at least better than Southeast Asia, which has become a mess of porridge, better than the European Union, whose manufacturing industry is hollowing out, and better than South America, whose economy has been in a debt crisis for a long time.
Last night, the Wall Street Journal said that the Fed is likely to continue to raise interest rates in the coming period, and the continued interest rate hikes have not pushed the US economy into a real critical moment, but the US economy has signs of resurgence.
⬆New York.
If deep in the mountains, we can only hear the outside world through the loudspeaker at the top of the mountain, and the loudspeaker says that the outside world is in depression, we will consider it depressed.
⬆ Huangshan
They don't necessarily make false claims, but some people, especially those accustomed to the rules of the past world, have developed experience for a long time and use existing experience to explain things that may be unknown.
Is the global economy in today's stage the 70s, 50s, and 30s of the 20th century that many investors, financial bloggers and entrepreneurs think?
Li Bei, CEO of private equity fund Banxia Investment, said in early 2023 that China's bank interest rates this year are similar to the US 50s, and she believes that China's current economic stage is similar to the US 50s, but in the second half of the year, her judgment can be determined to be wrong.
The 50s in the United States was an era when everything was revived, money was particularly easy to earn, and most people's lives were sharply improving, and now?
Looking at the economic situation of the United States, the economic situation of China, the economic situation of Japan and South Korea, the economic situation of South America, the economic situation of Mexico, the economic situation of the European Union, and the economic situation of the Middle East, it seems that this global economy is not similar to any previous one, but a cycle that everyone has never experienced.
The Chinese economy now seems to be like the tail of a very long cycle, and the beginning of another new cycle, this stage may have rarely happened in the past, very special, and even if it did, it could be a lot younger, 800 years ago, or 2000 years ago?
The United States has not fallen into recession as investors, entrepreneurs, and economists predicted, but gradually emerged from a debt crisis, perhaps we should re-understand the laws of economics, maybe some important things have been ignored.
It is also possible that the social form accumulated by technological innovation and money has developed into a look that we are not familiar with, is there a possibility that "debt" will expand with the development of the economy, and it is normal to swell down?
In the past 40 years, both the East and the West have seen debt expand, but at the same time the economy has expanded, and countries that have failed very poorly, such as Myanmar and Laos, have not had much debt at all, but have been in a weak economy for a long time.
When we look at the Fed, we ridicule the difficulties of US imperialism with a mocking mentality, but it seems that we rarely seriously examine the US economy for 300 years, and rarely seriously examine the economic cycle of the United Kingdom in the past 800 years, if the observation node is placed in Italy, then it can be traced back to the mid-15th century Florence, Venice, Milan economic take-off years, the starting point of modern European economy from this.
Since last year, some investors, economists, and financial bloggers in our country have been making a mistake, that is, refusing to accept the reality, any policy issued by the United States, any slightest crack in the United States, and any interest rate hike in the United States, advocating that the US economy is in recession.
Everyone wake up, the US economy has passed the most dangerous period, the Fed and the US financial department have pulled the United States back from the cliff, do not rule out the possibility of entering a new economic cycle.
It is not excluded that some people know what economic trends are, but no one tells the facts, but blindly confuses the public's expectations for the future.
What is the real situation now?
Our domestic Evergrande Group went to New York to file for bankruptcy, hoping for debt restructuring, according to the Wall Street Journal, China's Evergrande plans to carry out $19 billion of non-US debt.
Evergrande plans to resume normal operations over the next three years, requiring $36.4 billion to $43.7 billion in additional financing.
Some economists only pay attention to theory and long-term expectations, do not look at facts, and do not care about the current actual situation of enterprises, industries, and funds.
Of course, the future will be better, which everyone can know, whether it will be better in 30 years or 50 years later, which will have a very big impact on enterprises and individuals.
The U.S. economy is reintroducing high-end manufacturing, including photovoltaics, wind energy, etc., commercial aerospace is also developing as the main high-end manufacturing industry, Elon Musk's Space X and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin are typical enterprises of commercial aerospace.
New industries are re-energizing the U.S. economy, and the free dollars sent by the United States to the middle and lower classes have also achieved the effect of stimulating consumption, which further proves the correctness of Keynesian economics, and the U.S. Treasury Department cooperates with other departments to issue policies to promote the development of new industries, which also shows that the market, economy, enterprises, and industries do need to be regulated by the public sector.
Through the harsh economic reality, we can see that the most terrible thing is not a recession or inflation-type economic crisis, but the wrong policy, good monetary and fiscal policy can save the economic crisis, push the economy to the beginning of a new cycle, reduce the pain of the cycle transition phase, the longer the tail stage of the debt cycle, the less good for the economy, serious as Mexico, and South America.
If you compare all countries and regions in the world, then the situation in China is not too serious, but this is not so serious does not mean that some individuals will not be affected by bankruptcy, a speck of dust of the times falls on a person, it is also a volcano, even if the assets are hundreds of millions of yuan, it is not ruled out to be negatively affected, after all, in the face of the debt crisis, hundreds of millions in front of trillions of dollars in a drop in the bucket, like a praying mantis blocking the arm.
Now is the time to accept reality, do not have the slightest illusion, but also need to have a clear understanding, other countries and regions are more serious, South Korea's real estate market has collapsed, the Korean stock market last year, although the Nikkei is on the rise this year, but inflation and continued economic weakness penetrate into the bone marrow of Japanese society.
The situation in Vietnam is equally bad, with foreign trade continuing to decline, factories closing down severely, and property and stock markets plummeting.
The EU is in a serious process of de-manufacturing, per capita income is gradually declining, and the debt crisis and industrial unsustainability are affecting the region.
Although life in China is very difficult, investment and entrepreneurship are difficult, but it is very good compared to most regions.
Why Myanmar, Cambodia, the Philippines, which used to be a tourist mecca, flocked to millions of tourists every year, now there are more and more fraud companies, and the methods are becoming more and more cruel, because the debt crisis is also sweeping through Southeast Asia, scammers are difficult to make money, and Singapore, the best economy, is only better than most countries, and the country may have a higher level of risk resistance.
Each of us is dealing with an unfamiliar world, and past experience cannot evaluate a new world.
What is the current situation of the Chinese economy?
The upstream and downstream of the three sunset industries of real estate, foreign trade and the Internet are inevitably coming to an end.
The end here doesn't mean that the market no longer needs houses, or that new products no longer need the code of the Internet.
Rather, from the perspective of capital and industry, these three industries continue to trend downward.
The new alternatives are the Internet of Things, industrial robots, home service robots, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, nuclear power, wind energy, new materials, energy storage, lithium battery, semiconductor, psychological counseling, psychological healing, big health industry, innovative medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, VR/AR, artificial intelligence, humanoid robots and other industries.
This year's Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing and other places continue to hold robots, new energy, semiconductors, energy storage and other exhibitions, how many exhibitions are Internet, foreign trade?
20 years ago, there would be Internet conferences, and there would be exhibitions in the foreign trade industry.
With the turn of time, Wuzhen, where the Internet conference is located, has faded its technical coat, the foreign trade industry has transformed into brand pricing and channels, small and micro foreign trade companies have gone into decline, and employees in the real estate industry have also gone to a new promised land.
If you use one word to describe this era, it is the demise of the Internet, and it is not technology that dies, but the exit of industry from the core position of the economy, and other new industries enter the spotlight and become the new core of the economy, and this process will continue for many years.
But people who are still in the Internet, foreign trade, real estate, refuse to enter the new industry, will eventually only slowly become part of the sunset with the sunset industry, when they sit on the lounge chair to watch the sunset of the city, what are they thinking, nostalgic for the era when the Internet changed the world, every day there are new capital stories to stimulate people to forge ahead, and now those have become nothing, drifting with the wind.
At a stage, it is difficult for people to accept the new reality, and it is difficult to accept the new changes, which has nothing to do with age, and there are many post-70s and post-80s who can quickly accept the new concepts emerging in the fields of industrial robots, AI, photovoltaics, psychological healing, the health industry, and traditional Chinese medicine.
Each of these new industries has nothing to do with Internet thinking, and the development direction of technological innovation, capital logic, business channels, monetization methods, etc. have nothing to do with the heyday of the Internet industry.
Cultural tourism, movies, animation are undergoing new changes, the content is evolving in a professional and profound direction, this year's film and television dramas are more classic than a classic, such as "Disappearing Her", "God Sealing List", "Desperate", etc., some respond to extreme psychology, some reflect social reality, and also reflect the spiritual core of Eastern culture, the film industry from the past brainless money, to a higher quality of spiritual enjoyment.
Although the consumption data of workers and society this year is very poor, capital is gradually entering AI, robotics, entertainment, cultural tourism, psychological counseling, psychological healing, health and other industries, and the initial atmosphere of entrepreneurship is gradually emerging.
Over time, these new industrial chains will gradually pull the economy, so that the weak recovery economy will gradually turn into a state of strong recovery, this process will be long, maybe 2 years, maybe 3 years, maybe 5 years.
So what if you are in the Internet, foreign trade, real estate industry?
Probably, it's time to enjoy the peace of life.
It's time to accept reality.
Recently, I have heard that many workers, investors and entrepreneurs in the Internet, foreign trade, and real estate industries have changed careers to enter AI, beauty, psychological healing, medicine, new energy, energy storage and other industries.
Share the screenshot of the data of the AI risk control platform CreditGPT risk radar to professional risk control personnel, and the results of the AI risk rating and random forest display of Evergrande.