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In recent years, as the world situation has become more and more chaotic, former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, known as the "evergreen tree of the political arena" and "living fossil of the Cold War", has repeatedly called on the American political elite: now the United States is sliding step by step into the abyss of World War III with its allies.
Kissinger
If the United States wants to avoid such tragedies, it must end its senseless hostile relationship with Russia.
Moreover, both China and the United States should sit down and negotiate a new world order.
However, those elites of the US government are bent on believing that the old man's words are alarmist, and they are still immersed in the old dream of controlling the world, and refuse to wake up.
So, are Kissinger's words really alarmist? Is a third world war really possible?
The source of the world war
The author believes that a third world war is not possible, but inevitable.
Before the 20th century, the wars that appeared in the history of human civilization were basically regional wars.
A world war that can envelop global participation has never happened.
So why did the so-called world wars occur after the 20th century?
This is because in the past, the world was divided, and wars broke out between regional countries, which basically did not affect countries in other geographical plates.
But since the outbreak of the first industrial revolution, capital has united countries around the world in different ways under its own flag.
Some of them appeared as colonies, some as industrial countries.
But in essence it is not different, it is just a part of the capitalist system.
So when something goes wrong with this machine, all parts will inevitably have an accident.
Britain completed its industrial revolution in 1840, and over the next 30 years, capital began to expand globally.
In those thirty years, earth-shaking changes were taking place in all countries of the world, such as the Meiji Restoration in Japan, the Western Affairs Movement in China, the Taiping Rebellion, the abolition of serfdom in Russia, the dynastic war in Germany, the unification war in Italy and the American Civil War.
These wars were all related to the expansion of British capital after the Industrial Revolution.
For example, China's Taiping Heavenly Kingdom, the main force of the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was originally the Nanling area, serving the logistics personnel of the 13 lines in Guangzhou.
However, in 1840, in order to expand the colony and market, the British opened our country with strong ships and cannons, turning the situation of Guangzhou 13 lines being the only one family into five ports of commerce, and Guangzhou 13 lines declined.
And those logisticians who were attached to him all became unemployed and displaced.
This led to the Taiping Rebellion and a series of subsequent changes, which greatly impacted the ruling order of the Qing Empire.
Another example is the Civil War in the United States, which was also triggered by the rapid expansion of cotton raw materials after the British Industrial Revolution.
The change movement that covered all the major countries around the world was basically a preview of the world war.
The reason why there was no big war was because other countries except Britain had not completed the industrial revolution, and the world was in a situation of being a strong and could not be chaotic.
By 1914, however, the major European countries, as well as Japan and the United States, had completed the Industrial Revolution.
The original situation of Britain's monopoly has become a multipolar hegemony.
In order to plunder the raw materials and markets of the colonies and feed their own industrial machines, the contradictions became irreconcilable, and in the end they could only be solved by the so-called world war.
This is what everyone now calls the stock game, which is bound to trigger a world war.
Even if we know that the consequences of doing so will be a defeat for both sides, but the interests of large and small countries are waiting to be fed, no country can think rationally, and reason will be drowned out by fanaticism.
Therefore, even if Kissinger's words are correct, the interests of large and small in the United States cannot listen to them.
At present, there are few global dividends left, capital is hungry, as long as it can fill the current belly, no matter how much he floods.
But the war itself cannot solve the so-called stock game.
After the great changes of the 40s and 70s of the 19th century, it was possible to exchange for nearly half a century of peace because of the outbreak of the second industrial revolution.
The new increments created by the Industrial Revolution alleviated all contradictions.
The reason why peace lasted for nearly 70 years after World War II was also because of the increment created by the third scientific and technological revolution.
If the third technological revolution had not been born after World War II, the three wars would have been fought decades ago.
Now discerning people can already see that the world's increment has been exhausted, and now is the era of stock.
Once the world enters the stock era, if a world war does not break out, it will be really unreasonable.
Although war cannot solve the problem of stock games, it has two functions.
First, it can accelerate scientific and technological research and development in various countries.
Second, he was able to eliminate some interest groups that had hindered social development in the past and create new political dividends, which were one of the new increments.
After World War II, postwar politicians all took measures to curb capital and improve workers' wages.
When workers have money in their hands, the pool of the market grows.
The so-called innovation is essentially trial and error. Who makes trial and error? Of course, it is up to the market to try and make mistakes.
The larger the market, the more opportunities for trial and error, and the greater the chances of success. This is the post-war political dividend.
However, this political dividend has now been wiped out.
Which of the major consumer countries is not in debt?
And the biggest beneficiaries of this gap between the rich and the poor are undoubtedly the rulers of the world.
It is unrealistic to expect them to find out in good faith and take the initiative to give up power and benefits.
It takes bloody conflict to get them to recognize the facts, abandon their delusions and make concessions.
War is a hotbed of scientific and technological revolution, and when normal methods cannot trigger scientific and technological revolution, it can only be used.
The form of the three battles
But because of the existence of nuclear weapons, the way this world war will be different from the past.
After the foregoing, presumably we should all know that the initiators of world wars are mainly capital.
Remember, it is capital and not capitalists, and there is a fundamental difference between the two.
The so-called capitalists are just tool people after the alienation of capital.
Capital is a thing that is formless, phaseless, thoughtless. It exists in this world in the form of an invisible law.
And its only purpose is to add value to itself.
Therefore, it is not in its interest to fight a world war that will all die. In one way or another, it must influence its puppets, the capitalists, and prevent them from going to the abyss of destruction.
And these capitalists are basically the ruling group in today's world.
Therefore, there is no need to be too pessimistic, the future world war is most likely a war of cattle from across the mountain.
It is unlikely that the great powers will personally deal with each other. They should use third-party proxies to forge quagmires like Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine to deplete the strength of their opponents.
With the exception of China and the United States, all countries are in the category of so-called third parties, including Russia and India.
This kind of proxy war will inevitably have the consequence that the two lines of governors of some countries will be opened up in the war and achieve the rise of the country.
In other words, with the blessing of strong external forces, they will trigger internal changes.
These transformed countries are the political dividends of the new world.
Therefore, in the author's opinion, the so-called world war is nothing more than a system of capital, metabolic mechanisms used to repair itself, no big deal, not worth fussing about.
On the contrary, a world war must be able to break the power structure of the old world and reorganize a healthier relationship of interests.
Of course, a world war will inevitably lead to mountains of corpses and a sea of blood, and heads rolling.
But heaven and earth are not benevolent, and all things are used as dogs, and the development of history has never taken into account human feelings.
Whether you like it or hate it, what impact can it have on the progress of the wheel of history?
The fuse of war
So if a third world war breaks out, what will it look like?
More precisely, who will be the trigger for the Third World War?
As we said earlier, the future protracted competition between China and the United States will appear in the form of fighting cattle from across the mountain.
Then, those who can trigger this big competition will inevitably be those small countries in the middle.
So, which region is most likely to be the next Sarajevo?
First of all, the country that triggered the conflict must meet one condition, that is, the two sides of the conflict are objects that China and the United States cannot abandon, and there is no possibility of compromise and concessions.
Secondly, this place must have a very important geographical value, which is easy to trigger the ambitions of other countries.
More importantly, once the US hegemony declines, those regional countries that have been suppressed by him will inevitably raise their heads and covet these strategic points.
Third, since a conflict has broken out, there must be such a premise: that is, the country that initiated the conflict must have been unable to resolve its internal contradictions and turned to the outside world.
Places that meet the first condition are the 38th parallel, the Taiwan Strait, Kashmir, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The Taiwan Strait is relatively sensitive, and once a conflict breaks out in this place, it is absolutely impossible to fight a proxy war, but only a head-to-head confrontation between China and the United States.
Therefore, although the US side will provoke us in this place, it will never dare to take a step beyond the thunder pool.
Conversely, if conflict breaks out, the first shot will most likely be fired on the mainland.
So Taiwan, which seems to be the most likely hot spot, can basically be excluded.
In addition, the 38th line can also be excluded. Because the United States has a deep control over South Korea, it is basically impossible for South Korea to make small moves without the consent of the United States.
The Korean Peninsula is the home turf of China and Russia, and the United States' victory away from home is not high, and it is very likely to repeat the mistakes of 70 years ago, so even if the United States wants to do something, it will not do it in North Korea.
As for the Eastern European front, the United States still has a strong grip on Europe.
Even if some small Eastern European countries, such as Poland, want to stir up trouble and provoke Russia, the United States can hold it, and things will most likely not develop in an uncontrollable direction.
Then there are only two places where the United States cannot control and where conflict is very likely to break out: Israel and Kashmir.
Among the two protagonists of the Kashmir conflict, Pakistan is China's all-weather strategic partner, and it is impossible for China to give up this partner.
And India is the core of the US Indo-Pacific plan, it can be said that without India, the Indo-Pacific plan is a dead letter.
These two countries meet the first condition, they are both countries that China and the United States cannot abandon.
At the same time, they are also countries that China and the United States cannot absolutely control.
Both countries have strong independence, and once they start a conflict, China and the United States are not absolutely sure that they can hold on, especially India!
At that time, China and the United States will most likely have to pay for their conflict.
Another hot spot is Israel, which is now moving back from the Middle East to East Asia to contain China.
Middle Eastern countries are beginning to find other ways out, and even Saudi Arabia and Iran, two enemies, can achieve reconciliation.
Saudi Arabia, the boss of the Arab world, has its own military strength better than nothing, thanks to the protection of the United States.
The withdrawal of US power from the peninsula is unacceptable to Saudi Arabia, which is why Saudi Arabia's relations with the United States have been cold in recent years.
In the past, when Trump was in office, the relationship was good, because Trump was a businessman who gave money to do things, and directly, Saudi Arabia liked to deal with this kind of person.
But after Biden's Democratic Party came to power, this gang of establishment put the global interests of the United States first, and prioritized the Middle East and East Asia, which made Saudi Arabia extremely uncomfortable.
So the two countries are so hostile now, not because of the oil problem, nor the impact of the Khashoggi incident.
It's what the United States is doing now, breaking the promise of the past fifty years.
In order to protect itself, Saudi Arabia must find a way to divert the spearhead of other Arab countries and Iran, saying that nothing can let them hit their minds on themselves, so who is the target of this diverting contradiction?
If you want to talk about the transfer of contradictions, then who is more suitable than Israel? This is the public enemy of the Middle East world.
So in the past two years, everyone has seen that the Arab world has a trend of uniting to surround Israel, and Saudi Arabia is behind it.
And Israel's relationship with the United States is known to everyone, it is not a servant state of the United States, it has a lot of autonomy.
Faced with this environment, Israel must find ways to bring the United States back to the Middle East.
Therefore, its motivation to provoke war is sufficient.
Since the possibility of conflict between Kashmir and the Middle East is equal, the only suspense now is that in the environment of the global economic recession, India, Pakistan and Israel will be the first internal problems.
Then the probability of conflict in that place will be higher.
All in all, winter is approaching, and the world pattern is bound to be reshuffled.
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