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Text|The mountains have wood, and the wood has sincerity
Editor|Mountain has wood, Ximu has 摯
American power is unquestionable.
Russia's potential is also invincible, and the control of Russia by the United States has not only not put Russia in a desperate situation, but has allowed Russia to develop more.
First, the production capacity has exploded! 1 million drones mass production
A massive drone war is unfolding in Ukraine. The Ukrainian and Russian armies are extremely dependent on drones, which brings unprecedented combat capabilities to both sides.
The use of drones has brought great convenience to war. However, the large-scale use of drones has also exposed the weak links in logistics supply, especially the shortage of chips. This seemingly local war actually affects the lifeblood of the global chip supply chain.
UAVs were first applied on the battlefield by Ukraine, and Ukraine has obtained a large number of drones provided by Western countries, especially the "Phoenix Ghost" specially developed by the US military, which gives the Ukrainian army a clear advantage. Russia has also begun to introduce drones in response to the Ukrainian offensive, and the Russian army mainly relies on cheap drones "Shahid" imported from Iran.
But as the war situation evolved, the disadvantages of these drones were exposed - they flew slowly and were no longer sustainable in the face of the increasingly powerful air defense system of the Ukrainian army. Russia has accelerated the development of its own "Lancet" UAV, and announced that it has completed the production of 200,000 units, and even more amazingly, 1 million are in mass production!
This number makes American hairs stand on end. Russia clearly does not have enough chip production capacity to support such a large-scale production of UAVs. Where exactly do these chips come from? The United States launched an investigation and finally found the key - Kyrgyzstan.
It turned out that Kyrgyzstan imported a large number of civilian chips from a large country, and then transferred them to Russia through Kazakhstan railway transportation, completely bypassing all Western countries. This supply chain, which cannot be integrated into by foreign forces, has become an important way for the Russian army to obtain chips. With the supply of UAVs, Russia has more confidence in Ukraine.
Seeing that the restrictions they imposed on Russia are broken and out of their control. The United States was outraged by this and immediately sanctioned Kyrgyzstan. However, a certain major country did not agree with this and continued to conduct normal trade with Kyrgyzstan. The United States is well connected in Europe, and the transmission of information will pass through the United States, and the United States has as much say as possible.
But in Asia, the United States is not so well-informed, and access to information is very limited. The United States is also trying to have more engagement with Asia, break down this information barrier, and gain more leadership.
The cut-off of chip technology implemented by the United States has indeed had a series of impacts on China and Russia. However, compared with the reduction of orders and the lack of raw materials in the United States, it can only be said that the loss of the United States this time is even greater, and the gain is not worth the loss.
China also has its own chip research, and the research results have also received unanimous praise. It is also very popular in the market with its high quality and low price. However, with the continuous change of market demand, the technology of chips is also facing upgrades.
In fact, the market for 65nm to 90nm chips is already very saturated with razor-thin margins. Only high-end chips below 14nm can bring in significant revenue. Chinese chip companies are also facing the problem of obtaining funds from the low-end market and developing high-end technologies.
The development technology of Russian UAVs is very mature, and various processes are relatively perfect. The production of some parts depends on imports and is assembled domestically. There are also their own chip companies, but they are very restricted, not so perfect, and it is not as convenient as importing from abroad.
Through the encouragement of the United States, Russia also realized that the role of drones can not be underestimated, a certain number of drones is also a very headache, Russia has also mastered different models of different roles of drones in a short period of time.
The Russian military not only has explosive growth in UAV production, but also taken the lead in equipping the S70 "Hunter" stealth UAV, which is very similar to the Chinese Attack-11. It seems that Russian-Chinese cooperation in the field of chips is strengthening day by day.
The United States tried to completely block Russia from the supply chain, but the Central Asian corridor became the key to circumventing sanctions. The surge in the number of drones has put heavy pressure on Ukraine, and it has also involved a complex game for the development of the chip industry.
This not only affects the course of local wars, but is also closely related to the evolution of the world pattern. All parties are looking for breakthroughs in this contest, and the whereabouts of the chip supply chain will become the key to determining fate.
2. Frequent "color revolutions" in Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan, a small Central Asian country, has frequently experienced so-called "color revolutions", which have led to frequent changes of state power.
Recently, the Kyrgyz government arrested a group of people involved in the coup plot and traced the sponsors behind the US-based Soros-Kyrgyzstan Foundation.
This has once again raised concerns about the unrest in Kyrgyzstan. So why do "color revolutions" occur frequently in this small Central Asian country, and what role does the United States play in them?
Kyrgyzstan is a product of the founding of the Soviet Union. Central Asia was originally composed of nomadic tribes, which the Soviet Union divided into five republics, one of which was Kyrgyzstan. A country that has no history of independent statehood is like scattered sand, which can be easily exploited by outside forces.
After independence, Kyrgyzstan's political system has not stabilized, and frequent changes in the political system have led to frequent regime changes and created conditions for external forces to intervene.
The most important thing is that Kyrgyzstan has been infiltrated by external forces for a long time. A large number of Western NGOs entered Kyrgyzstan and played a role in each "color revolution". These organizations are called "non-governmental" but are actually controlled by Western countries.
So why is the West paying so much attention to this small Central Asian country? There are important geopolitical factors in this. Kyrgyzstan is strategically located in the heart of Central Asia. In Soviet times, it was the only way to get in and out of Central Asia.
After its disintegration, the United States sought to establish a base here to control Central Asia. During the war in Afghanistan, Putin persuaded the president of Kyrgyzstan to allow U.S. troops to be stationed there. This has accumulated influence for the United States.
Under the Belt and Road Initiative, China has strengthened cooperation with Central Asian countries, which poses a threat to US control of Central Asia. The frequent "color revolutions" have destabilized Kyrgyzstan, containing both China and Russia's influence there.
This time, Kyrgyzstan blocked and expelled all the new media industries related to European Radio Free in the United States, so that the country reduced some of the incentives for turmoil, and the United States can only warn the country, because the two sides have no entanglement of interests and some other connections.
The United States, which understands the mastermind behind this time, fears that leaving these people behind will bring more trouble to its rule. The decisive arrest of the conspirators by the Kyrgyz government shows the determination of the government and means that Western influence is waning.
The United States has used this method in many countries, constantly inciting riots through the convenience of the media and the speed of dissemination. Leads to social unrest and riots. Kyrgyzstan can resist such actions by the United States so decisively. It is also inseparable from the recent actions of the United States.
The actions of the United States have prompted closer cooperation and common goals between Russia and China. Let more countries that have been oppressed by the United States for a long time see hope and take the opportunity to get rid of the shackles of the United States.
This has a lot to do with the rise of China's economic strength and the deepening of the "Belt and Road" cooperation. China has a deep understanding of these countries, and China's ideas have been recognized by more countries. The opportunity offered by China gives Central Asian countries the ability to compete with the West.
But the United States is aware that these countries' resistance will take other measures to suppress it. The US approach is unknown, and there are doubts about whether Kyrgyzstan can cope with it. To avoid continued instability in Kyrgyzstan, the country itself needs to strengthen its ruling capacity.
While the current president wants to rule strongly, like Nazarbayev in neighboring Kazakhstan, he needs to build more prestige among the population. The most important thing is to have the ability to control Western power and prevent it from expanding its influence.
Third, will DJI follow Huawei's old path?
Recently, Japan's Asia Review magazine publicly questioned the core technology dependence of Chinese private enterprise DJI UAV. This question has touched sensitive nerves in the industry and raised concerns about DJI's prospects.
In fact, while drone technology is advancing by leaps and bounds, DJI has also been under the pressure of the United States. This is full of complex political games, and it also makes people worry about the future fate of DJI.
Founded in 2006, DJI Technology Co., Ltd. has become a global leader in civil drones after more than 10 years of development. Its low-price and high-quality products are well received by consumers, with a market share of up to 80%. It can be said that DJI is a well-deserved drone hegemon.
While DJI was widely praised, Japan's Nikkei Asian Review questioned its core technical prowess. The magazine asked a Japanese tech agency to disassemble DJI drones and found that 80 percent of the chips it used came from the United States.
Chips are the core components of drones, and if the chip supply is lost, DJI's production will be paralyzed. Some commentators worry that DJI may repeat the mistakes of Huawei and become the next target of US suppression.
This concern is not unfounded. In fact, the US crackdown on DJI began in 2016. At that time, the US Congress demanded that the sale of DJI products be restricted on the grounds of so-called "leakage of military secrets". Although DJI has never ventured into the military field.
This year, Textron also took DJI to court alleging infringement of intellectual property rights. Industry insiders have criticized such allegations as unfounded.
It seems that DJI's rapid growth has aroused the wariness of the United States. In the context of the increasingly fierce competition in the field of science and technology between China and the United States, DJI seems to be unable to escape the fate of being suppressed. The proposal of the external dependence of its core technology has provided the United States with a bargaining chip to exert pressure.
Compared with the blow to Huawei, DJI is currently in a slightly better position. After all, drones are not as sensitive as 5G and communication equipment. Although the existing signs cannot be ignored, from the current situation alone, the possibility of DJI following Huawei's old path is not very large.
However, whether this situation can be avoided depends on DJI's own response. DJI must reduce its dependence on external technologies as soon as possible to achieve independent control. At the same time, we should also pay close attention to international political trends so as not to become victims of the Sino-US game.
DJI, like Huawei, is a model for private technology companies. The outside world is looking forward to its rapid development and growth, becoming the pride of China's scientific and technological innovation.
Fourth, completely destroy China's chip production capacity, the United States and the Netherlands have gone crazy
For China's chip industry, the United States and the Netherlands are taking increasingly radical measures. This fully exposes the dangerous thinking of the United States and the Netherlands in the field of science and technology, but they are destined to be difficult to suppress China's scientific and technological strength. Because China has already made sufficient preparations, Sino-Russian cooperation has also provided strong support for coping with the blockade.
Recently, the Dutch government announced that from September 1 next year, it will implement strict control over China's export of high-end lithography machines. Not only do new exports need to be approved, but the provision of repairs and spare parts for equipment already sold to China must also be approved by the Dutch government.
This is undoubtedly a dead order to block the development of China's semiconductor industry. The Dutch prime minister said it was due to pressure from Washington. It can be seen that the United States is behind this policy of restricting China's scientific and technological development.
In the face of China's rise, the United States is making every effort to suppress. But we are not alone, and Russia will be a solid backbone in the response to the blockade. The cooperation between these two countries in terms of technology and resources will effectively defuse the blockade and suppression by the United States and the West.
China recently announced export controls on chip raw materials such as germanium, which is a powerful response to the United States and the West restricting the supply of key technologies. China has more than 90% of the world's gallium germanium reserves. Export controls are bound to disrupt the development plans of the chip industry in the United States and the West, making them feel pressure.
In response to China's export controls, Russian companies have begun to increase germanium production. China and Russia are expected to cooperate in germanium trade and jointly address challenges from the United States and the West.
There are layers of blockades in the field of science and technology, but China has long been prepared. We have achieved a major breakthrough in the core technology of lithography machine, and initially have independent manufacturing capabilities. China is on the road of scientific and technological independence with firm steps, and the suppression of the West will become the driving force for our further development. Just like in history, China started from scratch and mastered many key technologies such as missiles on its own.
At present, Sino-US relations are at a low ebb, and if we want to get back on track, the US must lift unreasonable sanctions against China. But the United States and the West have clearly not yet realized the seriousness of the problem. After China announced export controls, the United States and the West reacted fiercely, and even wanted to completely destroy China's chip production capacity.
Dutch lithography machine giant ASML has stated that it will stop providing maintenance services for Chinese customers. This will undoubtedly have an adverse impact on the development of China's chip industry.
However, China has been prepared for a long time and has been stepping up the layout of the chip industry for many years, especially in reducing its dependence on key equipment such as lithography machines. In terms of lithography machines, China has also continued to make breakthroughs.
summary
Sino-Russian cooperation will allow China to obtain a more stable supply of upstream chip materials. Russian companies have increased germanium production, helping the two countries to form control of the global germanium trade.
It can be said that the blockade of China by the United States and the Netherlands is a strategic miscalculation that is doomed to failure. They misjudged China's strength and determination and underestimated the depth of Sino-Russian cooperation.