This year is an election year in Thailand, where a new prime minister will be elected. However, the course of the general election has been full of twists and turns.
The election of the prime minister was deadlocked
The Thai Parliament consists of the upper and lower houses. The members of the House of Lords are appointed by the Thai army and number 250; The members of the House of Commons are elected by universal suffrage, a total of 500 members. The majority leader elected in the House of Commons election will be nominated as the candidate for prime minister, at which time the upper and lower houses will vote and the candidate will become the new prime minister with the consent of more than half of the members.
Pitta, leader of Thailand's Far Forward Party
In May this year, Thailand's Far Forward Party won a resounding victory in the election, and Far East Progressive Party leader Pita became the prime minister's candidate. Given the extremely high approval rating of the Far Forward Party, many members of the House of Lords at the time expressed their support for Pita as prime minister. However, in the parliamentary vote on July 13, a large number of members of the upper and lower houses changed their faces and voted against or abstained, resulting in the difficult birth of the prime minister's election, which caused an uproar for a while.
Analysis of various forces in Thai politics
To understand the current situation of the Thai parliamentary struggle, we must first understand the power structure of Thai politics.
Thailand's current ruling party is a political alliance between the king and the military. Thailand is a pseudo-constitutional monarchy, and although maintaining a complete framework of parliamentarism and electoral system, the king still controls military power behind the scenes, and a large amount of Thailand's assets are also private property of the royal family. In order to ensure economic development, the Thai king and the army have maintained friendly relations with China for a long time.
King of Thailand
The main supporters of the Thai Far Forward Party, which won the House of Commons elections, came from the urban bourgeoisie. The main political proposition of the Far Forward Party was to limit the power of the royal family and end the rule of the military government. This angered the ruling army and the Thai royal family behind the scenes. In addition, the Far Forward Party is supported by the West.
Between the King and the Far Forward Party, there is also a third-party force, the former king of Thailand, the Thaksin family, which controls the Pheu Thai Party. The main supporters of Pheu Thai are Thai farmers, who make up the majority of the population. Historically, the Pheu Thai Party was in power for a long time, but later clashed with the king and then Western countries, and was eventually overthrown.
is Pheu Thai leader and Thaksin's daughter Bedong Dan
What are the main factors contributing to Thailand's election gridlock?
Since the 90s, Thailand's economy has been in a long-term downturn. The so-called tourist attractions cannot support the employment of 70 million people, not to mention, many of the lower Thai people play the role of prostitutes, shemales, and boxers in the tourism industry. Thai tourism business owners and kings may be cash cows, but not much good for the people at the bottom.
The Thai royal family has a lot of wealth and great power, but it has not fulfilled its obligations as a ruler and has no intention of improving the lives of the people. At this time, Pita of the Far Forward Party took advantage of the dissatisfaction and anger of the ordinary people to propose a program to limit the power of the royal family and end the rule of the army, thus winning a resounding victory in the general election. From this point of view, the victory of the Far Forward Party is actually the will of the Thai people.
But the Thai king and army did not give up power easily. After its election victory, the Far Progressive Party was less likely to be the enemy, believing that under the pressure of public opinion, the army-controlled House of Lords would become a rubber stamp to acknowledge its victory. However, the military only gently flexed his muscles, only made a few small movements behind his back, prevented Pita from being elected in parliament, and even spread Pita's black material, threatening to send him to prison, and after these combination punches, the military did not even use the barrel of his gun.
Pitta struck a surprise blow: supporting the Pheu Thai candidate
Pita's main program was to end military rule and limit royal power. But as things stand, it seems impossible for Pita to bring down the military within the framework of the electoral system. If they use the support of public opinion to launch protest marches, they may be able to fight, but then the country will once again fall into severe internal friction. In the end, Pitta played a surprising but plausible card: nominated as Pheu Thai leader and Thaksin's daughter, Bedong Dan as the prime minister's candidate.
The return of the king of the Thaksin family
After the fall of the Thaksin family, it was silent in politics for many years. However, in the current situation, the Thaksin family received a godsend overnight, and the time and place were favorable and complete. Only the Thaksin family can resolve Thailand's impasse.
The Thaksin family, like the Far Progressive Party, advocated limiting the power of the king and opposed the military rule. But on the other hand, the Thaksin family is not as radical as the Far Progressive Party, shouting at the king and the army, so it does not cause them to panic.
More importantly, behind the Thaksin family, there is China's support. The Thaksin family is a pro-Chinese force in Thailand and has strengthened economic cooperation between the two countries during his administration. Yingluck, the former Thai prime minister and sister of Thaksin, was ousted because of the introduction of China's high-speed rail. China and Thailand are very closely linked economically, and if they are at odds with China, the Thai ruling government will be very passive.
Thaksin and his sister Yingluck
If the Thai military ignores public opinion and resolutely suppresses elected political parties, it is likely to trigger a new round of protests and marches, and it will be difficult for the military to quell public anger even if it has guns; Conversely, if the Far Forward Party Pita is tough to the end, then the military may also break the net and use force to suppress it. In this deadlock, the advantages of the Thaksin family are very obvious: on the one hand, his overall position is the same as that of the Far Progressive Party, and there is also a certain vote base, and Pita can accept someone from the Thaksin family as prime minister; On the other hand, the king and military are more accepting of the milder Thaksin family than Pita, or they are more afraid of the China behind Thaksin.
A crossroads in Thailand
This week, Thailand's parliament will hold a second round of voting. Pitta said that if he still cannot turn over in the second round, he will switch to supporting someone from the Thaksin family as prime minister. The author believes that Pita also has little chance of winning in the second round, and the throne of Thailand's prime minister is afraid that sooner or later it will fall into the hands of the Thaksin family. Therefore, readers interested in the situation in Thailand need no longer care about the news of the king, the military and the Far Progressive Party, but only pay attention to when Thaksin and Yingluck, who were overthrown and exiled abroad, will return home. When Thaksin or Yingluck returns home, it is the day when the Thaksin family makes a comeback.