After more than a day of thinking and weighing the pros and cons, Pita, who lost the first round of elections for Thailand's new prime minister, finally stopped being opinionated and showed flexibility. Pita has publicly stated that if he loses the second round, he will withdraw from the competition for the prime minister's election and support his coalition partners to form a cabinet for the Pheu Thai Party.
In Thailand's 30th prime minister election on July 13, Pitta, the leader of the Forward Party promoted by the Eight-Party Alliance, became the only candidate in the first round. Even so, he was not elected by 51 votes. However, Pita then said: "I accept this result, but I will not give up, I will not surrender and will use this time to win more support." ”
It can be seen from Pita's statement on the evening of the 13th that he has no intention of giving up, and seems to have the determination to "confront" the conservative forces to the end. However, after only one day, Pita's attitude was noticeably relaxed, or he had the mentality to be prepared for both.
According to Agence France-Presse, Pitta, the leader of the Kadima Party, who lost the first round of Thailand's prime ministerial election, posted a video on social media on the 15th, talking about the first round of the election, hoping that supporters would continue to help him participate in the second round of the election. He also said that if he loses again in the second round, he will turn to support the formation of a cabinet led by the Pheu Thai Party.
In the video, Pita said: "I want to thank people for every support and encouragement, but I want to apologize for not succeeding. ”
For the second round of Thailand's prime minister election, which will be held on the 19th, Pita appealed to supporters in a video: "I alone cannot change the mind of the upper parliamentarian. I therefore ask for your help in this task. ”
On how to help him, Pita called on supporters in the video to "get the message out to the upper MPs in every way possible, in every way you can think of." ”
And on the question that people are most concerned about at the moment, that is, what will happen to Kadima if he loses again in the second round, Pitta finally gave a clear attitude. "I'm ready to give Thailand a chance to get the party with the second most votes (Pheu Thai is the second largest party in the lower house)... Become a party that forms a coalition government. ”
For Pita's latest statement on the 15th, some analysts believe that three signals have been released. First, Kadima and Pita were unwilling and hoped to "turn over" in the second round. The second is to "retreat to the second" and let the "alliance partners" top the Pheu Thai Party. The third is to hint at the possibility of a "street protest" in Thai politics and society.
Although in the first round of elections, Pitta received only 13 votes out of 250 votes in the House of Lords, it was also a breakthrough in the eyes of Kadima and Pitta. After all, there were many predictions before the election that the House of Lords, with a military background, would be a bulwark that Pitta would not be able to break through. Moreover, after all, Kadima is the largest party in parliament, and Pita himself is young and vigorous, so it is expected that he will not give up the second round.
Objectively speaking, in the current Thai political ecology, in addition to the "eight-party alliance", other political forces have tacitly formed a camp to "jointly prevent" Pitta from becoming the 30th prime minister of Thailand. There are even analysts who believe that no matter how Kadima and Pita work, Pita will still be difficult to win in the second round. Naturally, Kadima and Pita are well aware of this. Therefore, there is a backhand, that is, to turn to support the formation of a cabinet for the Pheu Thai Party.
For Kadima, supporting the formation of a cabinet for Pheu Thai can at least retain its status as the ruling party, which is always better than becoming an opposition party. Moreover, if the conservative coalition eventually "picks up" the formation of a "minority government", the "little shoes" of the Kadima Party will also have to wear. Therefore, although supporting the formation of a cabinet for the Pheu Thai Party is unwilling, it should be the "least bad" result for the Kadima Party.
Also note: Pita's phrase "I'm ready to give Thailand a chance" in the video and his call on supporters to "deliver a message to lawmakers in every way possible, in every way you can think of." Some analysts believe that this is a hint that if he loses the second round of elections and the Pheu Thai Party he supports cannot pass the pass, Thailand is very likely to fall into a new political and social turmoil.
So, what will be the outcome of the second round of Thailand's prime minister's election? If the Pheu Thai Party comes forward to form a cabinet, will it go well?
Some analysts believe that if Pita does not "relax" the issue of the Pheu Thai Party forming a cabinet at this time, he still has a fight in the second round of elections. But in this case, his chances will be even slimmer. The reason is simple, because those members of the House of Lords who were still on the sidelines (199 members abstained in the first round of elections) will continue to wait. From this point of view, Pita's political experience is still very lacking.
To put it bluntly, Pita's "loose mouth" will inevitably have two consequences. One is to greatly reduce his chances of success in the second round. Second, it has greatly improved the possibility of successfully "picking up leaks" for the Pheu Thai Party.
In fact, as early as after the voting in the Thai general election on May 14, especially after the formation of the "coalition" between Kadima and Pheu Thai, some analysts pointed out that Thaksin and Yingluck's Pheu Thai Party have become invincible, and it is very likely that they will eventually succeed in "picking up the leaks". Because Thaksin and Pheu Thai have seized the "initiative" in the confrontation between the two forces.
Thaksin's party has been the largest party in the lower house in every general election since 2001, but this year's election was unexpectedly overtaken by the newly founded Kadima party. However, as the saying goes, "If you lose your horse, you will not know it", and the Pheu Thai Party, which has taken a back seat, instead "let the wind and waves rise and sit firmly on the fishing boat". The reason lies in Thaksin's clever layout and "current affairs".
Due to the personal friendship between Pita's father and Thaksin and the close idea of the party, as early as the election campaign stage in Thailand, Thaksin's Pheu Thai party secretly formed an "offensive and defensive alliance" with Peeta's forward party. Therefore, as soon as the election was over, Kadima formed an "eight-party alliance" with seven parties, including Pheu Thai. In fact, several other small parties are almost equivalent to "branches" of Pheu Thai. In doing so, the Pheu Thai Party is tantamount to "tying up" Kadima, the current mainstream in Thailand's political ecology.
As the saying goes, "one eats one and one wise", the pain of the two overthrows of the democratically elected governments of Thaksin and Yingluck brothers and sisters by military coups has undoubtedly made Thaksin realize that in Thailand's political ecology, votes alone cannot ensure smooth formation and stable governance. Because the royal family and the military have the ability and power to "rebalance". Therefore, as soon as the voting in the general election ended, Thaksin made a meaningful "statement".
On May 15, the day after voting in the general election, Thaksin, who was in exile, said: "We respect and love the monarchy. This is the position of the Pheu Thai Party and the Shinawatra family. Obviously, this statement has made the royal family, the military and conservative forces very useful, at least no longer to see the Pheu Thai party as a "dead and alive" opponent.
The clever layout makes the Pheu Thai party "bind" to the Kadima Party, the current "mainstream" in Thai politics and society, and the "support for the royal family" statement leaves room and "foreshadowing" for cooperation with conservative forces. That is to say, when it is necessary to step forward and fight, there is a forward party. If Kadima fails, Pheu Thai can also work with conservatives.
And even better if there is an impasse between Kadima and the conservative forces. Because, for the Pheu Thai Party, then it will be able to form a cabinet "justifiably". And at present, such a situation is taking shape. Because if Forward Party's Pita loses again in the second round of the election on the 19th and has to be launched as the Pheu Thai Party, Thai conservative forces also have to accept it. Otherwise, Thailand is very likely to have "chaos". And the current Thai economy can no longer withstand such a "toss".
For a long time in Thailand's election campaign, Thaksin's daughter, Pheu Thai prime minister candidate Bedong Tan, had been ahead of other candidates in popular support, only to be overtaken by Kadima Pitta after Bedong Dan returned home to give birth. Therefore, for the sake of security, the Pheu Thai Party will most likely put forward Bedong Dan to replace Pita as the candidate for Thailand's prime minister.
In fact, the launch of Bedongdan has another advantage, that is, Bedongdan's husband Petor has a deep relationship with the Thai royal family, which is naturally conducive to winning votes from the "royalist" members of the House of Lords. With Thaksin's personal relationship with Pride leader Anutin, if the Pheu Thai Party launches Bedongdan, it cannot be ruled out that 70 votes of the Pride Party will also vote for Bedongdan.
To sum up, if Pita loses again in the second round of the election and launches the Bedong Dan campaign for the Pheu Thai Party, it will be a high probability event that Bedong Dan becomes the 30th prime minister of Thailand in the third round of voting on the 20th.
Since 2001, the Shinawatra family in Chiang Mai has successively seen the three prime ministers of Thailand, Thaksin and Somchai (one of Thaksin's sisters-in-law) Yingluck, and if Bedong Dan is successfully elected, there is no doubt that the Shinawatra family's "one family, three prime ministers" will become history.