At present, when it comes to the domestic liquor market, "price inversion" is a topic that cannot be avoided.
What is the real situation in the market? Recently, the reporter visited a number of large supermarkets and liquor specialty stores in Jinan and found that in addition to Feitian Moutai, many products of well-known brands such as Wuliangye and Xijiu have price inversions, that is, the actual selling price is far lower than the recommended retail price.
"The inversion of liquor prices is common, and the fundamental reason is that the market launch exceeds the market consumption capacity." Relevant industry insiders believe that liquor destocking is the main task of major wine companies in 2023, and wine companies will adopt methods such as price control and stoppage, subsidies and concessions to make the market return to normal levels as soon as possible.
High-end liquor "price inversion"
Only Moutai "survived"
"Now is the off-season promotion, and the discounts for Xijiu and Lai Mao are quite large, and they can save two or three hundred yuan." At noon on July 10, at the liquor counter of a large supermarket in Lixia District, the staff was promoting several sauce wines to two customers.
After some introduction, the reporter found that the actual transaction price of most products on the counter, except for Feitian Moutai, was much lower than the recommended retail price. Among them, a liquor with a list price of 1299 yuan / bottle has a minimum price of 960 yuan / bottle.
"Except for Feitian Moutai, the price of other high-end wines has decreased." Ms. Liu, manager of a large tobacco and alcohol distribution store in Jinan City's central district, said frankly that in the current Jinan wine market, the "price inversion" of high-end wine is a common phenomenon.
Taking the 52-degree Wuliangye Pu Wu 8th generation (500 ml) sold by the store as an example, its official recommended retail price is 1499 yuan / bottle, but the general price of the store is between 1000-1100 yuan; The same is true for the 1498 yuan / bottle of Xijiu Junpin, whose price is also about 1000 yuan.
Manager Liu also revealed that the price of many brand wines seems to be "firm", but there is a "dark drop" phenomenon. For example, the price of Fenjiu 53 degree blue and white 20 (500 ml) sold in the store has been maintained between 380 yuan and 400 yuan, but it has recently launched a discount campaign - if customers who buy wine return bottles and boxes, they can also discount 35 yuan per bottle.
A similar phenomenon exists in the Zhenjiu series of products. "Basically, you can win the lottery by scanning the code - especially Zhen 15, and you can win 50 yuan per bottle." Manager Liu said that in addition to Zhen 15, Zhen 5 and Zhen 8 can win 20 yuan, and Laozhen wine is 15 yuan. Calculate it, a bottle of Zhenfifteen is about 450 yuan, and its official price is 700 yuan / bottle.
Not only offline physical stores, online platform sales are more obvious.
The reporter compared prices on a number of e-commerce platforms and found that in addition to Feitian Moutai, many well-known high-end liquor products generally have a "price inversion" phenomenon where the actual selling price is far lower than their recommended price.
Taking Xijiu series products as an example, the recommended retail price of Xijiu Junpin is 1498 yuan / bottle, but in the online platform price, the price of a single bottle of Xijiu Junpin is about 1000 yuan, and some even drop to 960 yuan / bottle; The recommended retail price of Xijiu 1988 is 898 yuan per bottle, and the price on the online platform is around 500 yuan.
Some products of Gujing Gongjiu also have price inversions. Taking the 52-degree vintage Gu 20 (500 ml) as an example, the original price of Gujing Gongjiu official mall was 1299 yuan, while on Tmall, Jingdong and other platforms, the price of a single bottle of Gu 20 was about 700 yuan, and it dropped to about 600 yuan during the "618" period.
Oversupply is the root cause
The inventory of some wine companies has increased by 80% in one year
"Due to the overall inventory pressure in the liquor industry, the price inversion of liquor has become relatively common." Mr. Lv, marketing manager of a well-known wine company in Jiangsu, said that the reason for the inversion of the price of many high-end and sub-high-end liquor in the market is not complicated, the fundamental reason is that the market launch volume of wine enterprise products far exceeds the market consumption capacity.
According to public reports, the reporter found that the inventory of finished wine and semi-finished wine of domestic A-share liquor listed companies increased as a whole in 2022, and in 2022 alone, the total inventory of domestic finished wine increased by 35%.
For example, the inventory of finished wine in Kweichow Moutai at the end of 2022 was 12,495 tons, and at the end of 2021 it was 10,282 tons; Yanghe shares were 46,496 tons at the end of 2022 and 44,228 tons at the end of 2021; Wuliangye was 23,328 tons at the end of 2022 and 21,161 tons at the end of 2021.
Compared with the gradual growth of the finished wine inventory of the above-mentioned wine companies, some wine companies have shown "leapfrogging" growth.
For example, Shunxin Agriculture was 138,298.07 kiloliters at the end of 2022 and 46,238 kiloliters at the end of 2021; Gujing Gongjiu was 38,311 tons at the end of 2022 and 19,619 tons at the end of 2021; Jinhui wine increased from 2,398 kiloliters at the end of 2021 to 4,424,000 liters at the end of 2022, an increase of 84%.
"The core products of high-end liquor distilleries have been launched for many years, and they have a good reputation and market consumers recognize their prices, and the price is not easy to be inverted." Manager Lv said that in addition to the strong price of Feitian Moutai, the price of high-end liquor such as Wuliangye is actually relatively stable, "In recent years, although Wuliangye has not experienced a sharp increase in price like Moutai, the price has also remained around 1,000 yuan all year round."
In fact, Wuliangye Group is also conveying "confidence" to the outside world. In May this year, Liu Yang, deputy general manager of Wuliangye, said at the shareholders' meeting: Affected by many factors, the price of "Pu Wu" this year has indeed been inverted, but this year it is confident to achieve a smooth price.
In Manager Lu's view, compared with high-end liquor, sub-high-end and low-end liquor are more likely to have price inversion, "there are many sub-high-end and low-end liquor brands, especially products between 800 yuan and 400 yuan, consumers' brand loyalty is low, consumers are more sensitive to their prices, and the market competition is quite fierce."
"The increase in the inventory of finished wine is on the one hand the large-scale release of goods by manufacturers to market distributors, and on the other hand, consumer recognition and demand are not high, and they can only promote at low prices." Manager Lu said.
"The official guide price is only a benchmark price, except for Moutai, almost no other wine has been sold at the official guide price." Manager Lu reminded that the wine industry has a multi-level distribution system, as long as the product price is within a reasonable range, the impact is not great.
Regular reaction to the off-season in market sales
It is also closely related to the cooling of "sauce aroma fever"
"It's the off-season." Manager Liu said that after the Spring Festival, as the weather changed from cold to warm to hot, the liquor market gradually turned into the off-season.
Based on the sales situation in previous years, Manager Liu said that the sales price list of liquor in the off-season is usually more favorable than in the peak season, "On the one hand, the market demand in the off-season is less, and manufacturers need to attract customers by reducing prices; On the other hand, the cost of purchasing goods in the off-season is relatively low. Some high-end brands may have a discount of about 10% in the off-season, while ordinary brands of liquor often have a 20-30% discount, and the price is between 50 yuan and 200 yuan."
It is worth noting that the price of some liquor is inverted, which has a lot to do with the cooling of the "sauce aroma fever" on the market.
"The price of sauce wine is the most obvious inversion, and the official price is basically higher than the channel price." Talking about the phenomenon of "price inversion" of liquor, Zhang Ming (pseudonym), a wine merchant in Lixia District, said frankly that at present, except for a few head sauce brands, the vast majority of soy wine products have price inversion.
In his store, the reporter saw that there were 6 sub-cabinets in a row of display cabinets on the east wall of the store, of which 1 displayed Wuliangye and other products, 1 displayed red wine and other products, 1 displayed Xijiu, Fenjiu and other series of products, 2 displayed Diaoyutai series products, and 1 displayed Maotai and other series of products. From the category point of view, sauce-fragrant liquor accounted for 3 showcases, fragrant and fragrant liquor accounted for 2 showcases, and red wine accounted for 1 showcase.
"In the past, this row of 5 display cases put sauce wine." Zhang Ming said that compared with three years ago, the "sauce wine fever" in the Jinan market has cooled down significantly, "before, customers came to buy wine, eighty percent would choose sauce wine, but now it has dropped to four or five percent."
"At that time, the sauce wine was too hot, and various wine merchants wanted to sell the sauce wine, and many merchants also went directly to Moutai Town to fill the sauce wine and make their own brands, but this year's momentum dropped at once." During Jinan's "sauce fever", Zhang Ming also made 2,000 boxes of sauce wine products, and when it was hot, a bottle was sold for 300 yuan, and now the price has dropped to about 150 yuan, "there are still 1,000 boxes left."
"Now it's time to buy the flavors you like to drink, and no longer pursue popular heat." Mr. Li, a citizen, said that three years ago, there was "no sauce and no joy" at the wine table, but as the sauce fever cooled down, he returned to the fragrant wine, "after all, the right one is the best".
Wine companies have made "big moves"
Destocking becomes a top priority
In the face of such a phenomenon, how can wine companies reverse it?
"Controlling goods and raising prices is an important means." Manager Lu said, "Maintaining a reasonable and healthy inventory level can not only avoid price inversion but also ensure the interests of dealers; It can also maintain the company's product price system and prepare for subsequent benign sales. ”
Not only Manager Lu, Manager Liu and other industry insiders have also said: every time the liquor sales off-season, consumption is weak, manufacturers control goods is a normal phenomenon, on the one hand, to stabilize prices, on the other hand, it is also to stabilize market confidence.
"During the peak season of the market, manufacturers are in charge of sales and rush sales; In the off-season of the market, manufacturers focus on controlling goods and adjusting prices. Manager Lu said that "controlling goods" is mainly to help distributors go to inventory, "After the epidemic, the backlog of inventory in various channels is serious, and major wine companies will especially need this method to stabilize prices and de-inventory in 2023."
In fact, in order to stabilize market prices and achieve goals such as destocking, as of July 2023, many liquor companies have begun to control goods.
Recently, Guizhou Zhenjiu Sales Co., Ltd. issued a notice that after the company's research and decision, it will suspend the receipt of payment and orders for Zhen 30 standard products from July 1.
This is the second time that Guizhou Zhenjiu will control goods in 2023. In March this year, Guizhou Zhenjiu implemented a price adjustment policy: from March 1, the price of Zhenba Dozen was increased by 20 yuan per bottle; The price of Zhen Wu dozen models was increased by 20 yuan per bottle; The price of Laozhen wine was increased by 10 yuan per bottle;
Not only Zhenjiu, but also many wine companies such as Langjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yanghe Co., Ltd. have also issued notices of controlling goods or raising prices.
Taking Langjiu as an example, in May 2023, Langjiu fully controlled the shipment of Qinghualang, Hongyunlang, Qingyunlang and other products. Among them, all merchants in Sichuan, Chongqing, Henan, Guangdong and other regions suspended shipments.
In this regard, Qinghualang said that for the price fluctuations reported by merchants in the early stage, the company will take the initiative to regulate the market supply, and continue to increase the number of going out and inviting in to expand demand; Pay attention to the order of online and offline markets, improve the internal management assessment mechanism, and promote the return of the value of Qinghualang without wavering.
Song Shuyu, chairman of the China Liquor Industry Association, previously pointed out that in the three years of the epidemic, the liquor channel has expanded rapidly, the consumption capacity of new channels is not strong, channel competition has suddenly heated up, and digesting inventory is the top priority this year.