Prayuth announces retirement from politics, and it is still unknown who Thailand's new prime minister will be

On July 13, Thailand's parliament will vote for a new prime minister. Just two days before the election, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha announced on July 11 that he would retire from politics, ending a nearly nine-year term as prime minister.

Prayuth's announcement of the end of his political career is not surprising. In May, Thailand held elections to the lower house of parliament, and Prayuth's Thai Unity Founding Party won only 36 of the 500 seats. In early June, Prayuth hinted in a speech that his term as prime minister was coming to an end.

Prayuth came to power in 2014 through a military coup and has been controversial ever since. After this year's election, the rise of new political parties embraced by young people, and Thailand is at a crossroads for change. However, despite Prayuth's withdrawal, the next prime minister is still difficult to produce, and it is still unknown whether Thailand's political situation can stabilize.

9 years of Prayuth

On the afternoon of July 11, local time, Prayuth announced his retirement from politics through the social account of the Thai Unity Founding Party: "From now on, I hope to retire from politics and resign as a member of the Thai United Founding Party." "Prayuth will continue to serve as caretaker prime minister until a new government comes to power.

The 69-year-old is a soldier by training. After a military coup in 2014, then-Army Commander Prayuth led the establishment of the National Council for Maintaining Peace and Order and became Prime Minister of Thailand in August of the same year. In 2019, Thailand held its first parliamentary election after the coup, and the People's National Power Party that supported Prayuth became the largest party, and Prayuth continued to serve as prime minister.

For the first 8 years as Prime Minister, Prayuth did not join any political party. In January this year, Prayuth and the People's National Power Party became discordant, and later joined the Thai United Founding Party, where he was nominated for re-election as the next prime minister.

Announcing his retirement from politics, Prayuth said he had strong support from party members and the public, "I can feel their understanding, sympathy and confidence in me." ”

Looking back on the past nine years as prime minister, Prayuth described himself as "defending the country, religion and monarchy with zeal and passion for the benefit of the people I admire." He said he had achieved a lot, highlighting his government's efforts to improve transportation, mitigate flooding, advance digital technologies, respond to the pandemic, and maintain fiscal order in Thailand, while expressing expectations for the new government.

According to Xu Liping, a researcher at the Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Prayuth's greatest achievement is probably to stabilize Thailand's political situation and society.

Xu Liping said in an interview with a reporter from the Beijing News that before Prayuth came to power, there were continuous street political movements in Thailand, which dealt a very big blow to Thailand's economy and society. Prayuth's rise to power through a military coup, followed by successful elections in 2019 and a gradual return to government are key to maintaining stability in Thai society.

In addition, Prayuth has proposed Thailand's Eastern Economic Corridor strategy economically, and although progress has been limited, it has proposed a medium- and long-term development plan for Thailand to some extent. "On the whole, Prayuth's most obvious shortcoming is still in the economy, because he has no experience in dealing with economic issues as a soldier, so he has no outstanding achievements in the economy, the problem of youth unemployment is serious, and the people's dissatisfaction is gradually increasing." Xu Liping said.

According to Reuters, Prayuth's prime minister has not had a smooth road over the past nine years, enduring multiple court challenges, a vote of confidence in the lower house and street protests. His own summing up of his term of office was, "I have worked to strengthen stability and peace in all areas of the country and to overcome many obstacles at home and abroad. ”

The timing of the exit is delicate

The timing of Prayuth's announcement of his retirement from politics is delicate. According to Thailand's "Bangkok Post", on July 13, local time, the Thai parliament will vote to elect a new prime minister, and whether the 42-year-old leader of the Far Forward Party and prime minister favorite Pita can be successfully elected is the biggest attraction.

Xu Liping told the Beijing News reporter that the Thai parliament is about to vote for a new prime minister, and at this critical moment, Prayuth's announcement of his withdrawal from politics is to some extent shifting the focus of contradictions, cooling down the soaring public opinion of Thailand's emerging forces, and thus creating opportunities for conservative forces and emerging forces to form a joint government.

In the lower house of parliament elections held on May 14 this year, the Far Forward Party, whose core goal is to promote reform and cut off from the military, became the largest party in the lower house with 151 seats, while the Pheu Thai Party, which also opposed the military, ranked second with 141 seats, while the main ruling party in the current government, the People's National Power Party, and Prayuth's Thai Unity and Founding Party, won 40 and 36 seats respectively.

The election changed Thailand's political party landscape, with a number of traditional parties and parties close to the military losing miserably, while parties that promoted reforms and opposed the military gained clear support, and Peeta, the leader of the popular Far Forward Party, became a favorite candidate for the next prime minister.

According to Thai media reports, after the election, Pita formed an eight-party coalition and won a total of 312 seats in the lower house, but this is still far from the 376 seats needed to be elected prime minister.

According to the constitution led by the Thai military in 2016, when the new parliament is established, a total of 750 members of the upper and lower houses will vote on the prime minister, and the candidate who receives more than half of the support will be elected as the new prime minister. However, the 250 members of the upper house, all backed by the military, and most of them staunch royal supporters, oppose the Far Progressive Party's proposal to reform Article 112 of Thailand's penal code.

Article 112 of the Thai Penal Code is Thailand's famous "Anti-Insult and Defamation of the Royal Family Law", which stipulates that defamation and insult to the Thai royal family is punishable by up to 15 years in prison. The Far Forward Party has made reforming the law one of its core campaign promises.

In addition to resistance from the House of Lords, Pita is currently facing a problem. Thailand's Election Commission is reportedly investigating whether Pita intentionally concealed his stake in a media outlet while running for office. Thai lawmakers are not allowed to own media shares. If the Electoral Commission takes the case before the Constitutional Court, Pita could be disqualified from parliament and may even be banned from politics or sent to prison.

But Pita did not retreat. Over the past period, he has organized several mass rallies across the country to win popular support. According to Channel News Asia (CAN), Pita held a rally in the center of Bangkok on July 9, saying that he would never "back down" and that "we are about to reach the end, and this end point belongs to the people... Together, the upper and lower houses will determine what Thailand will look like in the next decade or even a century. ”

"Thailand's formation of the government has reached the most critical moment, and at present, due to the opposition of the upper house, it is unlikely that Pita will be elected as the new prime minister." Xu Liping analyzed that Pita does not currently have enough support in the National Assembly to become prime minister, and many people believe that the conservative forces led by Prayuth are a stumbling block to Pitta's appointment as prime minister, in this context, Prayuth's announcement of his withdrawal from politics is to avoid external accusations against him, on the other hand, it is also to pave the way for the birth of the next prime minister.

Thailand's future

Prayuth's term as prime minister is coming to an end, but it is still unknown who will be the next prime minister, and there are concerns about whether Thailand's transition to power can be smooth after the election.

Xu Liping believes that conservative forces are still very strong in Thailand today, so any new coalition government must win the support of conservative forces if it is to govern successfully and effectively. "At present, the unity of conservative forces, coupled with the support of the House of Lords, is likely to succeed in forming a government. But this situation is not good, so conservatives may join forces with an emerging force such as the Pheu Thai Party to form a coalition. ”

For the upcoming vote, Xu Liping believes that there are two possible outcomes, one is that Pita is not elected, and no other candidates are elected; The other is the election of a candidate for the new prime minister jointly put forward by conservative forces, and this candidate may be Bawi of the People's National Power Party. "Ba Wei is an established politician who has the support of the royal family and conservative forces, and some members of the Pheu Thai Party are also more supportive, so there is a certain possibility that he will be elected."

According to The Straits Times, Pita posted a video on social media on July 11 again calling on MPs to vote for his coalition, saying that "voting for a majority government is actually giving Thailand a worthy chance to move forward." Some analysts believe that if the Pita-led coalition fails to form a cabinet, new unrest could erupt in Thailand.

Xu Liping also believes that in the future, there will still be small-scale fluctuations in the political situation in Thailand, and the possibility of a military coup cannot be ruled out in the long run. "In the absence of fundamental changes in Thailand's power structure and further amendments to the military-led constitution, a large-scale street movement in Thailand could trigger a military coup."

Therefore, whoever is elected as Thailand's new prime minister will face serious challenges. Xu Liping said that whether the new government can comply with public opinion to promote economic growth, whether it can increase employment and improve people's livelihood, and whether it can take action to win the trust of the people on anti-corruption and other issues will be directly related to the stability of the new government.

Beijing News reporter Xie Lian