On July 13, 2023, Thailand will hold its first Prime Minister's Vote, which is today!
But Thai politics has undergone a series of shocking changes in recent days
Just a few days ago, the predicted prime minister candidate has changed several times!
It feels like watching a thrilling political drama.
First, the current prime minister, Prayut Chan-o-cha, abruptly announced his retirement from politics on the eve of the ballot in the prime ministerial election
He no longer ran for prime minister and even withdrew from his LUTT party.
Immediately after, Kadima party's candidate for prime minister, Peeta
He was also accused by the Election Commission of holding shares in the media in violation of the law
The Constitutional Court was asked to suspend his candidacy for parliament and prime minister.
These two things happened in just two days
It has plunged Thai politics into chaos and uncertainty.
What kind of conspiracy and interest exchange are hidden behind these changes?
What opportunities and challenges does this mean, for those who have been eager to return to politics
This article will attempt to analyze the ins and outs and possible consequences of this earthquake in Thailand from multiple perspectives.
Why did Prayuth suddenly quit?
Prayuth is Thailand's current prime minister and the culprit behind a military coup that overthrew Yingluck's government in 2014.
He had promised democratic elections in 2019
But it has repeatedly delayed and amended the constitution to protect its own interests and those of the military.
In the House of Commons elections on May 14 this year
His party, UNTAI, did not win a majority
But it was supported by the House of Lords (appointed by the military) and other smaller parties.
Prayuth is also considered one of the strongest candidates for prime minister.
However, on 11 July, just two days before the vote in the Prime Minister election
Prayuth abruptly announced his retirement from politics, no longer participating in the prime ministerial race, and even quitting the LUTA.
He did not give specific reasons
Just say that you have completed your mission
It is hoped that he will be replaced by someone younger, more capable and more innovative.
He also said he would not interfere in the work of the next government and would not return to the military.
This news surprised and confused many people.
Why did Prayuth give up his power and position at a critical moment?
Does he really want to retire, or does he have other plans?
Who will be the next prime minister after he quits?
I am more likely to agree that Prayuth quit to make way for others.
This "other" may be his ally, or his opponent.
If it was his ally
Then it may be to make way for the LUTA or other pro-him
It makes it easier for them to form a government, and it also allows them to work better with other parties.
If it is his opponent
Then it may be to make way for the Pheu Thai Party or conservatives
It gives them easier access to the prime minister's throne and also allows them to work better with the military and the House of Lords.
Because if Prayuth does retire from politics
Then the biggest beneficiaries are Pheu Thai and conservatives.
And between the two, there is a secret collusion and deal.
This brings us to another shocking event:
Pita was accused of infraction of the violation.
Why was Pita accused of irregularities?
Pita is Kadima's candidate for prime minister
In this year's House of Commons elections, Kadima won the most seats (151), becoming the largest opposition party.
However, on 12 July, the day before the ballot in the Prime Minister election
The Election Commission abruptly announced that it asked the Constitutional Court to suspend Pita's candidacy for parliament and prime minister.
The Election Commission accused Pita of violating Article 98, paragraph 3, of the Thai Constitution
That is, parliamentarians are not allowed to hold shares in media companies.
The election commission said Pita held a stake in a media company called ITV.
The Election Commission found that this act constituted a violation
The Constitutional Court is therefore requested to make a decision as soon as possible
Suspend Pita's candidacy for parliament and prime minister until there is a final verdict.
The news left many people angry and puzzled.
Is Pita really violating the Constitution, or is it a witch hunt and conspiracy?
Pitta's alleged irregularities were the result of a political intrigue and deal
The conspiracy and deal may have involved multiple stakeholders such as the military, conservatives, Pheu Thai Party, and the United Nations Thai Founding Party.
Because if Pita is suspended
Kadima then lost a strong candidate for prime minister
It also loses its bargaining chips with other parties.
In this way, Pheu Thai has a chance to become the strongest contender for the next prime minister
There are also opportunities to reach compromises and cooperation with other parties.
These other parties may include conservatives and supporters of the military.
Because if Prayuth withdraws from politics
Conservatives and the military then lose a loyal agent and thus control of the government.
That would give them the possibility of trading for Pheu Thai and other opposition parties
In exchange for their own interests and security.
And these transactions may involve Thaksin and Yingluck's way home
This could be an important political exchange between the Pheu Thai Party and conservatives.
So I think the exit of Prayuth and Pitta
It is the result of covert collusion and trading between the Pheu Thai Party and conservatives.
They may have reached some kind of agreement
Let Pheu Thai be the next prime minister, while conservatives retain some power and influence.
In this way, they are able to avoid more conflict and turmoil, and also meet their respective interests and needs.