PVC futures analysis
July 11 V2309 contract opening price: 5880, high price: 5930, low price: 5857, position volume: 901349, settlement price: 5895, yesterday settlement: 5859, up: 36, daily trading volume: 826645 lot, precipitated funds: 3.72 billion, capital inflow: 1.22 million.
List of prices combined by region
Yuan/ton
PVC spot market
The mainstream transaction price of the domestic PVC market continues to rise at a high level, and the market rarely has a continuous upward trend. Price comparison: North China rose 20 yuan / ton, East China rose 30-40 yuan / ton, South China rose 50-60 yuan / ton, Northeast China rose 50 yuan / ton, Central China rose 20 yuan / ton, Southwest China rose 50 yuan / ton. The ex-factory quotation of upstream PVC production enterprises is generally increased by 20-50 yuan / ton, and the price of individual radical enterprises is increased by 100 yuan / ton. Futures have a trend of high breakout, spot market traders offer a good mentality, a price offer is more than yesterday's most, and spot negotiation space narrowed, with the rise of futures prices, spot market point price source advantage disappeared, although some still report the basis, but the transaction is more biased towards a price. The ethylene method also rose slightly intraday, merchants offered positively, and the overall center of gravity moved upward. However, downstream product enterprises have not yet had a clear intention to chase up, resist the high price of spot, and are not highly motivated to inquire and purchase. However, the improvement of the two futures and cash markets still led to some transactions, and the activity of the spot market increased.
Futures perspective
The PVC2309 contract continued to fluctuate in a narrow range overnight, and the rise and fall were not obvious. However, the price began to rebound upward in the early session, breaking through the previous high to touch 5930, and the afternoon was still dominated by relatively high volatility. The 2309 contract fluctuated in the range of 5857-5930 throughout the day, with a spread of 73,09 contracts reduced its position by 3696 lots, and the position has been 901349 so far. The 2401 contract closed at 5946 with 151650 lots.
PVC post-market forecast
Futures: PVC09 contract intraday trend once showed a clear long trend, intraday futures price increase upward opening is relatively obvious once increased by 17,000 lots, but the end of the day also began to increase correspondingly, some tend to close at a high level. The overall performance of commodities was strong, and most of the main contracts of domestic futures rose at midday close, with soda ash and methanol rising by more than 4%, coke rising by more than 3%, and coking coal and cotton rising by more than 2%. PVC main contract also has a high trend of continued rise, on the one hand, affected by the overall macro atmosphere, on the other hand, the drive of commodities is also more connected, the technical level shows that the futures price running high broke through the upper band (13, 13, 2) and further upward, in the short term the futures price still consider the high, or can expect the 6 head, but the continuous high continues to rise or there is a repair demand at the technical level, observe the performance around 5900.
Spot: futures divergence or is still the focus of recent attention, our view on the current situation is that the continuous high of futures narrow small step of the breakthrough, although the spot market is slightly insufficient follow-up, on the one hand, it is still in the balance of hedging basis, some merchants still have new hedging to ease the early low basis of the source, on the other hand, a small breakthrough its magnitude can not trigger a better downstream follow-up, which is also the main reason why most merchants feel that shipments are not smooth. However, we believe that the breakthrough of the futures price will eventually lead to the follow-up of the spot, which is only a matter of time and amplitude, so we need to be vigilant based on the balance point between futures and cash. In addition, part of the reason for the better sentiment of real estate commodities today is that the two departments have extended the period of financial support for real estate policies, extending the use period of some of the "16 financial policies" issued last year to December 31, 2024. As a result, real estate commodities are doing well today. Overall, the spot market may still operate in a high and narrow range in the short term.
PVC spread arbitrage analysis
Domestic PVC Index
According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic calcium carbide PVC spot index was 5687.01 on July 11, up 32.95, or 0.583%. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6045.87, up 55.64, or 0.929%, the calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene method-calcium carbide index spread was 358.86.
PVC warehouse receipt daily
PVC long and short positions are on the Dragon Tiger List
The information provided in this report is for informational purposes only