According to the agency's forecast, in July, by the pig market purchase and sales double low, the market trend is short, pig prices or will maintain the bottom pulling trend, pig prices fell below the "bottom line", the market has the risk of further bottoming, and into August, as the consumption season approaches, the market bullish expectations strengthen, but because the pressure of slaughter still exists, the scale of frozen products is high, pig prices or mainly strong shocks, therefore, this month pig prices or will usher in a cyclical reversal node, then, what is the pig price floor line? Today we will analyze it in detail!
According to institutional analysis, at present, domestic pig prices have lost more than half a year, and the pig price decline cycle is more than 8 months, in late October last year, pig prices briefly rushed to the stage high, pig slaughter price reached 28.34 yuan / kg, and with the increase of supply pressure, pigs out of the slaughter gradually cashed in, however, after the end of the mask problem, consumption performance was less than expected, pig prices shifted down, it is understood that on July 12, the national foreign three-yuan pig out of the slaughter quotation of 13.91 yuan / kg, Compared with the previous day's decline of 0.03 yuan, the market continued the downward trend of volatility, the pig price high fell to 14.43 yuan / kg, and the pig price fell by more than 51%!
At present, the low pig price pull, the domestic pig food ratio fell below 5:1, it is understood that at present, the average price of domestic corn is 2877 yuan / ton, the pig food ratio is 4.84:1, the excessive decline in pig prices is still in the stage of first-level warning, recently, pig fattening losses are large, some institutions predict that self-breeding pig fattening loss or will be 290 ~ 330 yuan / head!
From the domestic sub-market understanding, on July 12, the market continued a stable and weak trend, of which, northeast, northwest, southwest, east China, most of central China, pig prices fluctuated downward, and in South China and Jiangxi, Fujian few areas, pig prices rose, of which, pig prices fell by 0.05 ~ 0.2 yuan / kg, pig prices rose 0.05 ~ 0.4 yuan / kg! Among them, in Xinjiang, the price of slaughtering enterprises is 12.9 yuan / kg, the lowest price in the country, while in Guangdong, the pig price is 15.1 yuan / kg, the highest price in the country! In the mainstream high and low markets, Heijiliao and Inner Mongolia markets, the pig price is 13.3~13.75 yuan / kg, while in East China, the pig price hovers at 14.05~14.9 yuan / kg!
According to institutional analysis, at present, the pig market, the purchase and sales game is relatively intensified, and the market sentiment is intertwined, but the market is still weak! After all, at present, the lack of favorable domestic pork consumption, the arrival of three volt days, the high temperature and high humidity environment in the north and south regions is not conducive to the pork market, rural markets and urban wholesale markets, white stripe pigs have more leftovers, downstream orders in slaughterhouses have decreased significantly, and the phenomenon of pig collection reduction is prominent!
In terms of pig slaughter, although the market has a price sentiment, but the high temperature and high humidity environment is not conducive to the pig farm pen weight increase, but also easy to induce the phenomenon of heat stress in the pig herd, increasing the risk of farm biosecurity, therefore, retail investors and group pig enterprises are relatively positive, slaughterhouse pig source to the factory is relatively loose, many slaughtering enterprises continue to significantly reduce the trend of pig collection, the phenomenon of stopping plans is more obvious, however, in the South China market, due to the student holiday, consumer demand has improved, catering and tourism industry has gradually recovered. Pig prices have a narrow increase!
Now, July into the middle of the year, pig prices are still at a low level of volatility trend, this month pig prices or will usher in a seasonal inflection point, after mid-to-late July, with the recovery of consumer demand, the tourism industry gradually improved, superimposed, the market for gold nine silver October pig price bullish sentiment consistent, secondary fattening enthusiasm or will become thicker, mainstream pig fattening enterprises in the low standard pig slaughter or will be further cautious, pig prices or will "bottom rebound", pig prices will also gradually escape the price "depression", I personally believe that because of the mid-to-late July before Pig prices lack of actual benefits, pig prices may choose the opportunity to find the bottom, some institutions predict that the floor line of pig prices or will hover around 13.5~13.8 yuan / kg! The high point of pig prices in the third quarter may appear in September, and the agency predicts that the price will rise by 16.5~17 yuan / kg!
Pig prices fell below the "bottom line", the high point fell more than 51%, what is the floor line? July 12th Pig Price! What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the picture comes from the Internet, the content is for reference only!