Since the second half of last year, new energy has not been the protagonist of the A-share market, and even marginalized for a while, shareholders mention new energy stocks with disdain, the basic people mention new energy funds are also disgusted, artificial intelligence, AI is the "little sweet" of A-shares this year.
However, feng shui is always in turn, after artificial intelligence has been popular for more than half a year, many stock prices have risen 5-6 times, and the valuation has hit the high level of recent years, and then continue to copy the bubble degree is estimated to be no less than the previous new energy.
At this time, switching between high and low is a common action in the market, and funds sell high-level artificial intelligence and buy low-level new energy.
New energy is rare to rebound
From the perspective of portfolio asset allocation, new energy is obviously a high-risk asset with high volatility and high yield, and a complete round of "roller coaster" market has basically been completed from 2020 to this year; From the perspective of industry and valuation, new energy is a high-growth emerging industry, and the valuation level has been on the high side, but the current level has been much less bubble than the level of the previous two years.
The whole process can be felt through the trend of new energy funds in recent years.
(Screenshot of NEV ETF trend)
This fund is currently a representative on-the-counter ETF fund for new energy, and its current size is about 5.4 billion. It can be seen from the trend of the new energy vehicle ETF that it has basically continued to decline since August 2021, and although there was a sharp rebound from April to August 2022, it did not reach a new high, and the fund's high has fallen by nearly half so far.
Of course, this is only a general situation of the new energy sector as a whole, and specific to the relevant new energy concept stocks, the decline may be much larger than the whole. In any case, the overall decline of the new energy sector is close to the waist, which is a good return to the original bubble valuation level!
Therefore, recently, we can always see new energy stocks rebounding from time to time.
Today is another day of new energy rebound, as of the close, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, batteries, wind power and other new energy related industries rose first, PVDF concept, fluorine chemical, HJT battery, TOPCon battery, silicon, sodium-ion battery, blade battery and other new energy-related concepts rose first. Among them, the photovoltaic equipment industry rose 2.68%, the PVDF concept highly related to lithium batteries rose by more than 3%, and the fluorine chemical concept rose 2.57%.
(Top 5 industry gainers)
(Top 5 concept gainers)
It can be seen that today's new energy vehicle ETF also rose by more than 1.5%, and new energy concept leaders such as Jinlang Technology (300763.sz) and Tibet Mining (000762.sz) all led the industry sectors to which they belonged.
Lithium manganese phosphate activates the market?
Judging from the trend of the new energy vehicle ETF above, the entire new energy sector seems to have signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing recently, but it is not as fierce as last year's sudden reversal, but is in a low-level shock glue state, and it seems that it still cannot find direction.
The signs of the overall decline and stabilization of new energy are actually a certain catalyst, that is, Tesla's decision to use lithium manganese phosphate batteries!
On June 29, it was reported that Tesla's domestic Model 3 facelift model will continue to upgrade the battery pack, especially the power of the basic rear-wheel drive version will be increased from 60 degrees to 66 degrees, using the new M3P lithium iron phosphate battery of the Ningde era.
(Source Network)
According to the data, the M3P lithium iron phosphate battery mainly comes from the "formula" that Musk has made public, adding manganese material to the lithium iron phosphate cathode material, while the lithium manganese phosphate lithium battery of the Ningde era has added more cathode materials. Compared with lithium iron phosphate and ternary material batteries, lithium manganese phosphate batteries have higher energy density and are one of the upgrade directions of lithium battery cathode materials.
Based on the upgrading of lithium iron phosphate battery technology, the stock price performance of A-share lithium battery cathode manufacturers has also been good recently.
Just after Tesla announced the upgrade of the battery, on June 30, the A-share cathode leader Hunan Yuneng (301358.sz) rose nearly 7% on the same day, and once rose more than 9% intraday, and German Nano (300769.sz) strongly closed the 20% limit board that day, and rose more than 3% today, and has recently rebounded nearly 40%.
(Screenshot of German Nano stock price trend)
It can be seen that although the stock price of German Nano has rebounded by nearly 40% since June 29, it is still far from its high decline, and its highest market value was once close to 73 billion, and now it is less than half of the previous one!
In fact, domestic cathode manufacturers, including Hunan Yuneng and German nano, began to deploy lithium manganese phosphate as early as the second half of 2021. For example, German Nano announced in September 2021 the construction of a new phosphate series cathode material project with an annual output of 110,000 tons.
(Source: Screenshot of GF Securities Research Report)
However, from the reaction of the capital market, lithium manganese phosphate batteries, as the cathode upgrade direction of lithium batteries, seem to be less concerned than the previous lithium iron phosphate, and even have no sodium-ion batteries and flow batteries.
The "green" photovoltaic has finally stabilized
After talking about lithium batteries, let's talk about photovoltaics.
From the perspective of the stock price performance of the photovoltaic sector, the renaming of LONGi (601012.sh), as a global photovoltaic module giant, to "LONGi Green Energy" is a turning point, and LONGi feels that it has been "glowing green" after changing its name.
(Screenshot of LONGi Green Energy stock price trend)
LONGi shares were renamed "LONGi Green Energy" on May 16, 2022, and the stock price fell by less than 30% from the historical high at the time of the name change, and fell all the way after a short small rebound, and the high level has fallen by more than 60% so far.
What makes investors unbearable is that after changing the name of "LONGi Green Energy", the stock price has become particularly "green", and almost no rebound has fallen all the way to now, and today's rare rebound exceeds 8%!
Another renamed "XX Green Energy" is the super bull stock on the computer numerical control (603185.sh) in 2020, which was renamed "Hongyuan Green Energy" at the end of April this year, and has fallen by nearly 30% so far.
(Screenshot of Hongyuan Green Energy stock price trend)
Of course, the name change to "XX Green Energy" is not the real reason for the continuous decline of photovoltaic stocks, the main reason is the concentrated release of production capacity under the wave of industry expansion in previous years, resulting in a "price war" in all aspects of the industry, especially the price of upstream silicon wafers has fallen again and again this year.
In recent months, LONGi wafer prices have decreased by about 30% with each change!
(Screenshot of LONGi's official website)
The good news is that wafer prices seem to be showing signs of stabilization in the first week of July, and N-type polysilicon has even ushered in a weekly increase, indicating that the supply and demand relationship in the industry is gradually improving.
In addition, it can be seen that today's inverter leader Jinlang Technology (300763.sz) is leading the photovoltaic industry, the reason is also related to the bottom of upstream polysilicon prices last week, as of the close Jinlang Technology rose more than 12%.
(Screenshot of Jinlang Technology's stock price trend)
Jinlang Technology's stock price trend is more extreme, from mid-February to mid-June this year, the direct weekly line 18 consecutive negative, the stock price directly slashed, the higher level plummeted nearly 70%!
In short, in the past few years, the sharp rise and fall of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic stock prices are mainly affected by the fluctuation of the industry cycle, not the special performance of a single company, the main reason is actually the industry supply and demand changes under the capacity inventory cycle, although the overall new energy has bottomed out and rebounded, but to appear a real reversal of the market still need to wait for the obvious recovery of industry demand and the obvious decline of industry inventory.