Preliminary data shows that on July 3, the global average temperature broke the highest record, which became the "hottest day" on record. However, this record lasted only 24 hours before it was broken by the global average temperature on July 4.
Climate scientists have analyzed that the combination of global warming and El Niño has caused the global average temperature to break the highest record, and with the development of El Niño, the new record may not last long, and the title of "hottest day" may change hands.
The record was only held for one day
According to the National Environmental Forecasting Center (NCEP), on July 3, the global average temperature was 17.01 °C, breaking the highest record since the agency began statistics in 1979. Previously, August 14, 2016 and July 24, 2022 together set a global record for the highest average temperature of 16.92°C.
According to CNN, the European Union's climate monitoring agency Copernicus Climate Change Service uses different methods to track global temperatures, and the agency released a global average temperature of 16.88°C on July 3, also setting a record since the agency began related statistics.
Just one day later, NCEP released data again, and on July 4, the global average temperature was 17.18 °C, setting a new record that had just been broken.
July 6, 2023, Beijing, citizens travel with umbrellas. Photo/Visual China
17.18 °C may not sound too hot, but given that this is the global average temperature, and this figure is a full 1°C higher than the global average temperature between 1979 and 2000, many experts are worried.
"Not all records are meant to be broken. In almost every corner of the planet, people are facing the brunt of unprecedented heat waves. UNEP Director Inger Anderson said.
"This is not a record to celebrate, and since the Northern Hemisphere has only recently entered summer and El Niño is still developing, new high temperature records are not expected to hold for long." Friedrich Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London.
The global average temperature released by NCEP is only preliminary data. Sarah Kapnick, chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told The Associated Press that the daily data do not represent official records of the U.S. government, but that the government refers to them when calculating official records. Kapnick also said that although the data only goes back to 1979, combined with other data, the world may have just experienced its hottest day in hundreds of years.
The University of Maine in the United States uses NCEP data to create a "climate reanalysis" model to track climate change. Sean Burkle, a climate scientist at the University of Maine and the model's creator, said the daily data, while not official data, was a useful "snapshot" of global warming, like taking a patient's temperature.
According to reports, NCEP is a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is an important source of information for weather forecasting in the United States and the world. Almost all weather forecasts in the United States are based on NCEP data and analysis.
Global warming superimposed on El Niño
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a July 4 announcement confirming that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years, which could lead to global temperature spikes and disruptive weather and weather patterns. The last El Niño event began in 2015 and ended in 2016, during which the previous high temperature record in 2016 was set.
The World Meteorological Organization predicts a 90% chance that El Niño will persist in the second half of 2023, with an El Niño of at least moderate intensity. The group said this increases the likelihood of record global temperatures and damaging weather over the next 12 months.
According to the British "Guardian" newspaper, Paul Seppi, Ph.D. in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment at Imperial College London, said: "El Niño has not yet peaked, the northern hemisphere is still summer, and it will not be surprising if the temperature breaks records in the coming days or weeks." ”
On June 23, 2023, local time, a worker transports ice in Uttar Pradesh, India. Photo/Visual China
Carsten Hausten, an atmospheric radiation researcher at the University of Leipzig in Germany, said: "In previous years, global temperature peaks usually occur at the end of July, and higher temperatures are likely in the coming days. ”
Housten said July is likely to be the hottest month "ever." "Historical" here refers to since the Eemian. The interglacial age dates from about 120,000 years ago and is a warmer period between glacial periods.
John Abraham, a climate scientist at the University of St. Thomas, said that the global temperature increase is not gradually increasing at a steady rate, but "like a step", "every few years, the temperature rises, then remains stable for a few years, and then rises again." ”
"This year is an El Niño event on top of decades of climate warming." Abraham said.
It's hot all over the world
When there was high temperature weather in many parts of China, many parts of the world also suffered from extreme heat.
According to CNN and the Associated Press, Mexico has suffered from multiple extreme heat since March, and by the end of June, extreme heat had killed at least 112 people in Mexico. In June, a heat wave struck the Indian state of Bihar, killing at least 44 people.
Since late June, the southern United States has been experiencing extreme heat and humidity, with temperatures above 37°C. Alan Harris, director of emergency management for Seminole County, Florida, said they have activated their extreme weather program more days so far than last year combined. Extreme weather plans are usually launched when temperatures reach temperatures above 42°C.
On July 5, 2023, local time, in Pennsylvania, USA, people swim in parks to cool off. Photo/Visual China
According to the National Weather Service, the UK ushered in its hottest June since records began in 1884. The average temperature for the month was 15.8°C, 0.9°C higher than the previous record.
CNN's chief climate correspondent Bill Weir said July 5 that local high temperature records are being broken around the world this week, with maximum temperatures exceeding 50°C in parts of North Africa. The temperature in the northernmost part of the Canadian province of Quebec is even higher than in Miami in the southern United States. In Antarctica, although it is winter, it also sets a record for the highest temperature in local history for the same period.
A research station in Antarctica recently recorded temperatures of 8.7°C, breaking the record for the warmest in July in Antarctica.
Frederick Otto said that the new global average temperature record has sounded the alarm once again for mankind. "It's just a number, but for many people and ecosystems, it means loss of lives and livelihoods."
High temperatures threaten human health. "People's bodies are not used to this." Erian Safiel, a climatologist and expert on extreme weather and climate events in Arizona, said, "People need to make sure they stay hydrated in time, stay cool, don't overwork outdoors, and take care of those around them who may be at risk." ”
Elan Kellman, professor of disaster and health at the Institute for Risk and Disaster Mitigation at University College London, said: "As temperatures rise, we expect the number of related deaths to increase substantially. There are still many people in the world who cannot afford indoor cooling or cooling, and some have to work outdoors, especially at night, where heat and humidity can be silent killers. ”
Beijing News reporter Chen Yikai
Edited by Zhang Lei Proofread by Wu Xingfa