On July 5, according to the market chart, today, the price of the main contract of corn 2309 "opened high and went high", rising sharply, as of the close, the price per ton of corn rose by 31 yuan, closing at 2780 yuan / ton.
Yesterday, the price of the main contract of corn 2309 also rose by 23 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of the main contract of corn 2309 has risen "strongly", what is the reason for this? At the same time, does this indicate that the price of the corn 2309 main contract will rise further?
Recently, the price of the main contract of corn 2309 has "risen strongly", Xiaobian believes that it is mainly caused by the "increase" in corn demand.
As we all know, last week, the central bank carried out a total of nearly 1 trillion yuan of buyback operations in the form of interest rate bidding. That is, last week, the central bank "injected" a lot of liquidity into the money market.
This week, although the central bank also carried out reverse repurchase operations in the form of interest rate bidding, the strength is very small, which indicates that a large amount of money will begin to "return" to the central bank this week.
However, last week, nearly 1 trillion yuan of liquidity entered the money market, and after the link of money creation, this week, even if a large amount of money began to "return" to the central bank, the liquidity in the money market is still very "abundant".
In addition, large state-owned commercial banks have also lowered the deposit "interest rate", that is, the recent "increase" of domestic currency will inevitably lead to future inflation climbs, which will eventually be reflected in the price of goods.
Therefore, in the short term, it will inevitably make manufacturing enterprises "rush to buy" the raw materials of bulk commodities, thus forcing the "demand" of bulk commodities to "explode" in a short period of time.
Recently, the price of commodities has been "rising", which is the most favorable evidence of the "increase" in commodity demand. According to the market trend chart, from July 4 to July 5, the price of starch 2309 main contract increased by 27 yuan / ton, the price of soybean meal 2309 main contract increased by 28 yuan / ton, and the price of ethylene glycol 2309 main contract increased by 39 yuan / ton.
So, in this context, does it indicate that the price of the main contract of corn 2309 will rise further? For this problem, Xiaobian believes that next, the price of the main contract of corn 2309 may still have room to rise, but its strength will not be too large, perhaps, it will "stop rising and turn down"!
As we all know, commodity prices "slow rise", "slow fall", or range sorting, is beneficial to manufacturing enterprises, once there is a "volatility" situation, it is very unfavorable to manufacturing enterprises, so in this case, speculators who continue to be bullish on corn prices must beware of external intervention.
According to the announcement issued by China Grain Reserve Network on holding a corn auction sales session of storage and transportation companies on July 7, starting from 10:00 on July 7, 2023, the storage and transportation company will sell corn with a production period of 2018, 2019 and 2021 by bidding, with a quantity of 32,427 tons, and the production areas are Jilin Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Liaoning Province and Heilongjiang Province.
That is to say, on July 7, China Grains Reserve will release 32,427 tons of corn to the market, which may prevent the price of the main corn 2309 contract from continuing to rise.
Therefore, Xiaobian believes that recently, the price of the main contract of corn 2309 has "risen strongly", mainly because of the "increase" in corn demand. However, next, the price of the main contract of corn 2309 may still have room to rise, but its strength will not be too large, perhaps, it will "stop rising and turn down". What do you think about this, and is it consistent with the editor's view?