China's birth rate has fallen sharply and is already lower than that of Japan and South Korea. It took us less than 10 years to get to a point where it took people more than 30 years to achieve, which is indeed a "compelling" achievement.
However, we need to note that both Japan and South Korea are already developed countries with well-established welfare systems. In contrast, China is neither a developed country nor a welfare society. Therefore, we are facing the challenge of accelerating aging, and the labor and pension problems will become difficult to solve in the future.
At present, there is no perfect solution to the problem of declining newborn population on a global scale. However, our total fertility rate is falling so fast that it is rare in the world.
While many are optimistic that a reduction in the newborn population will reduce stress, this reduction in demand will be immediately apparent for every 10 million fewer babies, and changes in labor supply will take two decades. It may even be due to the reduction in the number of babies, causing the labor supply to exceed the industrial demand.
As a result, we may face a situation in which incomes continue to decline due to labor surplus and increased employment pressures during the throes of a declining neonatal population.
After the labor pain period, due to the decrease in the number of young people, the pressure of old-age will become heavy and people will not be able to breathe.
As for the final outcome, no one can predict with certainty. This requires us to work together to address this challenge through policy and social reforms to ensure the sustainable development of societies and the well-being of people.
China's declining birth rate could raise some of the following questions:
Reduced labor supply: As the new population decreases, the supply of labor may decrease in the future. This could lead to increased competition in the labor market and increased employment pressures.
Second, the burden of old-age care increases: With the intensification of the aging trend of the population, the burden of old-age care may increase. Fewer young people will need to support a larger elderly population, which can put pressure on social old-age security systems and families.
Slower economic growth: Reduced labor supply could have a negative impact on economic growth. Productivity may decline and innovation and technological progress may be limited.
Changes in social structure: Changes in demographic structure may lead to changes in family structure and social relations. Families may become more miniaturized, sibling relationships will decrease, and solitary living and social isolation may increase among older people. Some other possible problems include:
Increased pressure on social security: As the population ages, social security systems may face greater financial pressure. Spending on pensions, health insurance and social welfare is likely to increase, and sustainable solutions need to be found.
Reduced opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship: A smaller young population may reduce opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship. Innovation and entrepreneurship often rely on the dynamism and creativity of young people, who may face fewer opportunities to advance the economy and society.
Education system pressure: A decline in the birth rate may lead to less pressure on the education system, but it may also bring some challenges. Schools may face difficulties in recruiting students and insufficient teachers, and need to adapt to demographic changes and provide high-quality educational resources.
Demographic imbalance: If the birth rate continues to decline, it may lead to demographic imbalance. Issues such as imbalances in the ratio of men and women, labour shortages and changes in family structure may arise, with implications for social stability and family well-being.
These issues require comprehensive policy and social reforms to address. Governments can encourage childbearing, improve education and employment opportunities, and strengthen social security and pension systems to ensure that the negative social and economic impacts of demographic change are minimized.