Ren'ai Jiao is perhaps the "most humiliated" of all the islands and reefs in China.
In 1999, the landing ship Sierra Madre of the Philippines washed up on Ren'ai Reef and has been steadily "holding" here ever since.
Ren'ai Jiao is China's territory, but the Philippines always wants to control it, and even mainland fishermen are often harassed by the Philippine coast guard when fishing nearby.
Ren'ai Jiao and Philippine landing ships
Many people thought that the Sierra Madre would disintegrate on its own, after all, the landing ship had been in the sun and the wind for 24 years, and the hull was already rusty and dilapidated.
The reality, however, is that the Sierra Madre disintegrates or sinks on its own is unlikely.
First of all, the Sierra Madre, as a landing ship, landed in the form of a "wash-and-beach" that year. The so-called "beach" refers to the ship directly rushing onto the "land", causing the bottom of the ship to directly reach the bottom.
Today, the Sierra Madre is supported by the reef of Ren'ai Reef, so it will not sink on its own.
Secondly, the Sierra Madre was reinforced. In 2015, the Philippines sent people to bypass the blockade of the China Maritime Safety Administration and reinforced the bottom of the ship with cement and steel bars.
So the current Sierra Madre is actually equivalent to a house on Ren'ai Reef, this "house" is not difficult to collapse, but it will still leave a fairly complete structure after the collapse.
It is not enough to expect the Sierra Madre to disintegrate or sink on its own, but waiting for it to disintegrate or sink on its own, the possibility of the mainland recovering Ren'ai Jiao is slim.
Therefore, in order to recover Ren'ai Jiao, the mainland can only use strong means to drag it away, and it needs to drive out the Philippine personnel above.
However, as far as the current international situation is concerned, China will not use tough measures against it for the time being.
We first need to define the notion that China's goal is to become an "international" country, a country that aspires to have a huge global influence, rather than just huddling into Southeast Asia and the periphery of Asia.
Then when China looks at the world, the issue of Ren'ai Jiao is more complicated. The Filipino personnel currently stationed on the Sierra Madre are all serious military personnel. The Philippines recognized that China would not use force, so it dared to send military personnel to garrison it.
If China sends a tug to forcibly tow the Sierra Madre, there is a high probability that China and the Philippines will exchange fire.
Then things will develop with a standard template: China and the Philippines are at odds, and the Philippines is bringing in U.S. military power to counter China. Then the situation in Southeast Asia is tense, and there may be a war.
For the United States, the Philippines is a very suitable fulcrum for intervention in Southeast Asia.
The 2016 Sino-US confrontation in the South China Sea was caused by the Philippines' desire to touch China's sovereignty. If China takes a tough approach to the Sierra Madre on Ren'ai Reef, it is giving the United States an opportunity to intervene in Southeast Asia.
So China's best response to the Sierra Madre is actually to take it slowly. After all, this island and reef is there, and it can't run.
The Sierra Madre was on Ren'ai Reef and docked illegally for 24 years, not less than this hour and a half.
China has taken a tough approach to resolving the Ren'ai Jiao issue
Then in view of the current situation in Southeast Asia, the Sierra Madre is most likely to have two outcomes.
First, China and the Philippines turned their faces and forcibly tow the Sierra Madre from Ren'ai Reef.
But this will involve the United States behind the Philippines, because the contradiction between China and the Philippines is not only the contradiction between the two countries, but also the contradiction between the United States wanting to intervene in Southeast Asian affairs and China wanting to squeeze out the United States.
So the Sierra Madre is a card for China. China and the Philippines have good relations, then everyone will talk slowly and always solve the problem through negotiation.
If Sino-Philippine relations are not good, then don't blame China for turning its face, when the time comes, the Navy exercises around Ren'ai Reef, the coast guard escorts the tugboat, and the tugboat goes directly up to tow away the Sierra Madre, and does not even care about the Philippine personnel above.
With the current situation in Southeast Asia, the possibility of China turning its face is not small. Because the Philippines is very dishonest, it has always wanted to introduce the United States into Southeast Asia to balance China.
In the 2016 Sino-US confrontation in the South China Sea, the United States ran, and the Philippines was honest for several years after Duterte came to power. Now that the Philippines has a new president, it is thinking carefully.
At present, the Philippines has provided military bases for the United States, which greatly increases the chances of China turning its back.
If the Philippines makes further moves later, the Sierra Madre will be dangerous, and not only the Sierra Madre, China really wants to turn its face, and the move is all-round.
For example, if China turns its face with the Philippines, in addition to using tough measures against the Sierra Madre, it may also make a fuss on Scarborough Shoal.
Scarborough Shoal is very close to the Philippines, and if China deploys military forces on it, warplanes, warships, and missiles can quickly reach the Philippines.
Previously, considering its relationship with the Philippines, China has not deployed military forces on Scarborough Shoal. But if China and the Philippines turn their faces, then China will not care about the face of the Philippines.
The Philippines itself tow away the landing ships
The second outcome is for the Philippines to dispose of the Sierra Madre itself, allowing the ship that ran aground on Ren'ai Jiao to quietly disappear.
China has always liked to solve problems by peaceful means, so the Philippines itself towing the Sierra Madre is the best policy and will not affect China-Philippines relations.
To achieve this goal, China will have to put pressure on the Philippines. If China intends to follow this path, in the next period of time, we will find that there will be many conflicts between China and the Philippines in the people.
For example, the Chinese coast guard patrols Ren'ai Jiao every day, blocking the channel for Filipino personnel aboard the Sierra Madre to receive supplies from the Philippines.
Another example is that Chinese fishermen suddenly went to fish around Ren'ai Jiao on a large scale and clashed with the Philippine coast guard.
Then the China coast guard went to the town yard on the grounds of protecting Chinese citizens and so on.
If China wants to, there are actually many ways to deal with the Philippines, but it just depends on whether China wants it or not.
So on the issue of Ren'ai Jiao, China does not need to be in a hurry, anyway, the island is there, and the Philippines cannot move home.
China is such a big country, and the coast guard is now very strong, and it can play slowly with the Philippines.