At the Summer Davos Forum (the 14th Annual Meeting of the New Champions of the World Economic Forum), the Top 10 Emerging Technologies Report 2023 was officially announced.
Jeremy Jurgens, Executive Director of the World Economic Forum, said that the "Top 10 Frontier Technologies Report 2023" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") aims to help professionals in various industries predict the potential for exponential development, interpret their impact, and drive applications that shape industries and serve society.
The report outlines technologies that are expected to have a positive impact on society in the next 3-5 years. The scope of the report goes beyond describing technologies and their associated risks and opportunities, but also includes a qualitative assessment of how each technology impacts people, the planet, prosperity, industry and equity.
These top ten emerging technologies include the following.
1. Flexible battery
From rollable computer screens to "smart" clothing, electronics will become increasingly "flexible" in the future. The rapid development of wearables, flexible electronics, and bendable displays urgently requires power supplies that can match the flexibility of these systems. Standard rigid batteries may soon be a thing of the past, as thin, flexible batteries (made of lightweight materials that can be easily twisted, bent, or stretched) have entered the market.
There are currently several types of flexible batteries to choose from. These batteries are rechargeable and include lithium-ion or carbon-zinc systems placed on conductive polymer current collectors. In some cases, additives can enhance electrical conductivity and flexibility. The electrodes of flexible batteries can be coated or even printed on flexible substrates, including carbon-based materials such as graphene, carbon fiber, or fabric.
The flexible battery market is expected to expand rapidly in the coming years. A study predicts that the global flexible battery market will grow by $240 million between 2022 and 2027, with a CAGR of 22.79% during this period. The major drivers for the growth are expected to be the increasing demand for wearable devices and the trend towards miniaturization and flexibility in electronics.
Several companies, including LG Chem, Samsung SDI, Apple, Nokia, Frontier Technology, STMicroelectronics, Bluespark Technology, and Fuli Battery New Technologies, are actively developing and commercializing flexible battery technologies.
2. Generative AI
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a powerful type of AI that can create new and original content by learning patterns in data, using complex algorithms, and learning methods inspired by the human brain. While generative AI currently focuses primarily on areas such as generating text, computer programming, images, and sound, the technology can be applied for a variety of purposes, including drug design, architecture, and engineering.
AI-based language models like the recently popular ChatGPT can increase productivity and improve output quality, transforming human tasks from draft writing to idea generation and editing. Generative AI technologies are particularly beneficial for less capable workers, improving job satisfaction and self-efficacy. Given the productivity gains that can result from the adoption of these new technologies, we must be aware of the possible job substitution. Therefore, it is critical to develop policies and programs that support workers to upgrade their skills to ensure that the benefits of technological innovation are widely shared and that workers are equipped with the skills they need to thrive in an ever-changing job market.
The latest developments involve autonomous AI systems that can make important decisions or take significant actions. For example, AutoGPT is an autonomous AI application that uses GPT-4 language models. AutoGPT can automate user-determined goals by breaking them down into smaller tasks and leveraging tools such as internet search or text-to-speech technology.
Generative AI technologies, especially autonomous AI technologies, are increasingly integrated into multiple aspects of people's daily lives, generating public excitement and concern. To build public trust in generating AI, it should be ensured that applications meet agreed professional and ethical standards.
3. Sustainable aviation fuel
The aviation industry accounts for 2-3% of global CO2 emissions each year, and it is projected that it will reach 39 gigatons between 2022 and 2050. The use of electric vehicles in land transportation is increasing rapidly, but the aviation industry faces difficulties in reducing carbon emissions because long-haul flights require higher energy density fuels. In addition, the high cost of replacing aircraft means that existing fleets will continue to operate for decades, and electric or hydrogen-fueled aircraft may not be available for long-haul flights under any circumstances.
A solution has emerged that does not require large-scale changes to existing aviation infrastructure and equipment: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which is produced from living (e.g. biomass) and abiotic (e.g. CO2) resources. Combined with other decarbonization strategies, including system-wide operational efficiency, new technologies and carbon offsets, SAF should enable the aviation industry to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in the coming decades. Currently, SAF accounts for less than 1% of global jet fuel demand, but by 2040 this proportion must increase to 13-15% to enable aviation to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Currently, the capacity to produce SAF from bio-feedstock using renewable energy is steadily increasing. According to the International Air Transport Association, SAF production reached at least 300 million liters in 2022 (optimistic estimate of 450 million liters), almost three times that of 2021. More airlines are committing to SAF, a trend that will be accelerated through global efforts such as the World Economic Forum's Clean Tomorrow Blue Sky Initiative and the First Mover Alliance.
The American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) has approved nine sustainable aviation fuels that can be blended in proportion to conventional petroleum-based jet fuels at up to 50 percent. In 2023, a consortium in the UK will deliver the first all-net-zero sustainable aviation fuel transatlantic flight, demonstrating the potential of this rapidly evolving technology and pushing the world closer to net-zero aviation.
4. Engineered bacteriophages
Bacteriophages are viruses that selectively infect specific types of bacteria. With the help of increasingly sophisticated genetic engineering tools, scientists can now reprogram bacteriophages to infect designated bacteria, allowing them to specifically target one of the many coexisting bacterial types in the plant, animal, and human microbiome. For example, because bacteriophages typically infect only one type of bacteria, targeted therapies can be targeted against individual bacterial species in the complex microbiome.
Engineered bacteriophages show potential to treat diseases associated with the microbiome, such as hemolytic uremic (HUS), a rare but severe condition that affects kidney and blood clotting function and is caused by specific E. coli. The scientists engineered the genetic material of bacteriophages infected with E. coli to encode genetic "scissors" capable of cutting the E. coli gene that causes HUS. Animal studies have shown that giving these engineered phages significantly reduces the presence of E. coli strains in the microbiome that cause HUS and alleviates symptoms of HUS.
Of the 44 engineered phage-related clinical trials with therapeutic purposes, 29 have been published since early 2020. Phage-based therapeutics, whether natural or engineered, will continue to be a powerful approach to engineering the microbiome to enhance human, animal, and plant health.
5. The metaverse that improves mental health
In response to the worsening mental health crisis, product developers are beginning to build shared virtual spaces to improve mental health.
Excessive use of screens and social media may reduce mental health, but with responsible use, they can also boost well-being. Making connections in shared virtual spaces may help combat the growing mental health crisis. Virtual shared spaces are digital environments where people can interact professionally and socially. The future of these spaces is often referred to as the "metaverse" and may include augmented reality (AR) or virtual reality (VR)-enhanced virtual shared spaces. Just as multiple shared virtual platforms currently exist, there may be multiple metaverses with different purposes and levels of immersion.
Some gaming platforms are already being used for mental health treatment. These platforms not only increase patient engagement but also help remove the social stigma of mental health issues. For example, DeepWell Therapeutics created video games for treating depression and anxiety; UK-based Xbox studio Ninja Theory has incorporated mental health awareness into mass-market games and plans to expand into therapy with their Insight project; TRIPP created Mindful Metaverse to enhance well-being by enabling virtual reality to guide mindfulness and meditation.
The sustainability of using the metaverse to meet mental health care needs could be a win-win situation. Not only will patients benefit, but combining the metaverse with practical, necessary applications could drive the emergence of this ever-advancing virtual space.
6. Plant sensors
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations says global food production needs to increase by 70 percent to feed the world's population by 2050. Technological innovation in agriculture will be a key step towards achieving this tremendous growth and improving world food security.
Traditionally, monitoring large farms has relied on artificial soil testing and visual observation, and drones and satellites have revolutionized this. Today, we have a new generation of plant sensors. These wearable plant sensors can improve plant health and increase agricultural productivity. These small, non-invasive devices can be installed on crops and continuously monitor temperature, humidity, humidity, and nutrient levels. Data from plant sensors can optimize yields, reduce the use of water, fertilizers and pesticides, and detect early signs of disease.
Growvera and Phytech, each of which have developed miniature needle-like sensors that can be inserted into the leaves or stems of plants to measure changes in electrical resistance. The data is transmitted wirelessly to a computer or mobile device for analysis to obtain recommendations about plant health.
Wearable plant sensors promise to revolutionize crop production and management. By providing real-time data on plant health and environmental conditions, these devices can help farmers optimize agricultural productivity, reduce waste, and minimize the environmental impact of agriculture while helping to feed a growing global population.
7. Spatial omics
The human body is made up of about 372 trillion cells. How do they work together to keep us alive and healthy? Spaceomics may provide answers for researchers.
By combining advanced imaging techniques with the specificity and resolution of DNA sequencing, this emerging approach enables nuanced mapping of the "what, where, and when" of biological processes at the molecular level. The scientists first selected an organ of interest, such as a mouse brain, and sliced the tissue into sections just one cell thick. Innovative techniques were then used to visualize the location of specific biomolecules in each slice. Spaceomics enables the observation of cellular structures and biological events that were previously unobservable in unprecedented detail.
Thanks to spatomics, a new generation of molecular-level "cellular atlases" has been created, detailing the numerous biological processes that occur in humans and other species. According to 2021 statistics, the total value of the relevant market is $230 million, and revenue is expected to reach $580 million by 2030, and more and more public and private companies are looking to provide spatomics solutions.
While academic and translational research centers accounted for 89% of the market in 2020, the market is expanding rapidly to include the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries.
8. Flexible neuroelectronics
In recent years, Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMIs) have gained traction, inspiring imagination about the power and potential of controlling machines through thought. Brain-computer interfaces allow the capture of electrical signals generated by the brain and the algorithmic decoding of these electrical signals into instructions that computers can understand and execute.
BMI-like systems are already being used to treat epilepsy patients and are being used in the field of neuroprosthetics, which use electrodes to interface with the nervous system. Despite their initial successes, these technologies face challenges. Implants currently used by doctors are made of hard materials, similar to chips inside laptops or mobile phones, and they can trigger long-term scarring and cause significant discomfort. They can't bend or adapt to brain movements, so they "drift" in position over time, reducing the accuracy of capturing signals. Non-invasive methods, such as electrodes placed on the outside of the skull, do not require surgical implantation, but provide signals that can only hear vague and hard-to-decode sounds, like listening to someone through a thick mask.
Researchers have recently developed flexible, flexible brain-computer interface circuits on biocompatible materials. Flexible circuits can adapt to the brain, reducing scarring and sensor drift, and they can be loaded with enough sensors to stimulate millions of brain cells at the same time, far exceeding the size and time of hard probes. When flexible brain-computer interfaces are used in neuroscience research, understanding of neurological disorders such as dementia and autism can be deepened. Clinically, flexible brain-computer interfaces can provide better neuroprosthetic control without the need for frequent calibration.
The application of flexible brain-computer interfaces has been carried out in clinical trials approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), quickly making this technology a reality. In the future, other implantable devices, such as pacemakers, could also use similar materials.
9. Sustainable computing
Data centers consume about 1% of global electricity production. Enabling net-zero energy data centers by combining and integrating emerging technologies in innovative ways. Sustainable computing refers to the synthesis of these technologies.
First, to solve thermal management problems, develop liquid cooling systems that use water or insulating coolants to dissipate heat, and reuse excess heat for applications such as space heating, hot water supply, and industrial processes. Second, AI is being used to analyze and optimize energy use in real time, maximizing efficiency without compromising performance. DeepMind, for example, has successfully demonstrated the potential of AI-driven energy management, reducing energy consumption by up to 40% in Google's data centers. Third, the technology infrastructure supporting net-zero energy data centers is becoming more modular and demand-driven. For example, cloud computing and edge computing systems can distribute data processing and storage across multiple devices, systems, and even locations.
Achieving net-zero energy data centers will involve innovative approaches that combine these approaches with new generation, energy storage, and management technologies.
10. AI-assisted healthcare
In the early days of the pandemic, many hospitals quickly exceeded capacity with sustainable workloads. In response, government and academic teams are applying artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to healthcare, both to anticipate upcoming pandemics and to respond to them effectively.
The technology is still in its infancy, but will scale rapidly as more high-quality data is incorporated into AI and ML models. AI-based healthcare could have a more profound impact in developing countries, which often lack the infrastructure and personnel to provide health care to large segments of the population. India, for example, has a population of 1.4 billion and a widely dispersed population and has adopted AI-based approaches to enhance health services. The Indian government has enabled doctors to interact remotely with remote communities through assistance technology and ensured that privacy protections are in place.
summary
Mariette DiChristina, co-chair of the report's steering committee and dean of the School of Journalism at Boston University's School of Communication, said that the 2023 Top 10 Frontier Technologies Report is designed to help improve the global situation and help humanity itself. As can be seen from the report, the drivers of innovation are the acceleration of global connectivity, the rise of artificial intelligence, and the convergence of the physical, digital and biological worlds.
Co-chair Bernard Meyerson, IBM's former chief innovation officer, believes it's important to recognize the social issues that these "super" capabilities pose. Ultimately, human happiness also requires a healthy planet. To meet this demand, the "Big Ten" list includes wearable plant sensors that increase food production by improving plant health. As the impacts of climate change become more severe, progress has been made on two of these innovations: sustainable aviation fuel, which can be made from biological or non-biological sources; Sustainable computing, paving the way to a net-zero carbon data center. However, more innovation is needed to address this existential threat.