In my opinion, the strongest fixed investment strategy is "fixed investment for a lifetime": with the goal of not selling, continue to buy high-quality assets, which is the road of lifetime investment. The asset with the most twists and turns and new highs in the long term is that avenue, just go up.
However, many people like to take shortcuts, abandon the flat road without knowing it, and investment is easier said than done.
From the current market point of view, where are the most advanced technology companies? NASDAQ 100 index, this is the "high growth" sector to watch!
First, the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
Nasdaq 100, selected 100 non-financial stocks listed on the NASDAQ exchange as constituent stocks, equity redistribution is dominated by large-cap stocks, and the component stock market value is more than $100 billion, representing leading companies in most industries, companies with a market value of hundreds of billions of dollars, and the index weight accounts for nearly 80%.
Similar to our Science and Technology Innovation 50, the NASDAQ 100 contains mostly American high-tech companies, such as Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Intel, etc. This index, the technology content is very high, 67% of the United States or even the world of high-tech enterprises,
From the perspective of sector growth and investment value, the NASDAQ 100 must be able to get out of the long bull. These high-tech enterprises are the most commercially competitive companies in the world, the barriers are high enough, the profitability is strong enough, and the profit will inevitably drive the long bull!
Especially this year, overseas ChatGPT applications continue to ferment, and under the wave of AI, the profit growth expectations of US technology leaders continue to increase. Benefiting from the development of artificial intelligence, the Nasdaq 100 ETF has risen significantly this year.
Second, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike are increasing.
Since March last year, in order to curb inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates a total of 7 times during the year, accumulating 425 basis points, reaching the highest level since the international financial crisis in 2008, and the global capital market is under pressure.
Under the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, liquidity tightened, and the U.S. stock market was also hit hard.
However, this year, after experiencing a series of tragic cases such as bankruptcy, acquisition, and plummeting stock prices led by Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed is more cautious about the introduction of interest rate hike policies, and the market generally believes that the monetary policy of beautiful countries has gradually shifted to an easing cycle and improved liquidity, which is a major benefit for U.S. stocks.
Looking at the data, in 2022, the US stock market fell more sharply than A shares, but since the beginning of this year, the Nasdaq 100 has risen by as much as 26%, basically repairing last year's decline!
Looking back, I have two observations:
On the one hand, at the end of the first period of interest rate hikes, it intervenes and holds the Nasdaq 100 dimension for more than a year, and the win rate is high. Whether from the perspective of the US stock market environment or the gradual industrialization of the ChatGPT concept, it is good for the sector.
On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 has risen very high this year, from the perspective of the P/E ratio of the past 5 years, the current NASDAQ P/E ratio is about 31 times, and the quantile of the past 5 years is 67%. Index valuations are not cheap anymore, and buying requires controlling the pace and positioning.