Scouting report|How did a white boy who didn't have outstanding abilities become a Finals surpriser?
After digging deep into the media after yesterday's game, everyone has learned more about the Nuggets' biggest surprise in the Finals G3 - rookie Christian Braun, knowing that he comes from a sports family, has a strict tiger mother, has an NCAA championship bloodline, and so on.
But in today's scouting report, I'll take another look at why the young white winger became an important rotation for the Finals team as a rookie and changed the course of the game in a crucial game.
And all this starts with the draft a year ago...
Imperfect rookie
In the 2022 NBA Draft, Christian Braun was selected by the Nuggets with the 21st pick in the first round. Before him, there are 20 other young players who have been prioritized by various teams, including Paul Banqueiro, Jabari Smith, Keegan Murray, who have already begun to make their mark, as well as names that are not familiar to ordinary fans such as Johnny Davis, Usman Dieng, Davin Terry, etc.
As a white winger who has completed his junior year, Braun is clearly not the kind of super talent that is sought after by all teams, but deep into June, he was the only player in his class who could still play on the field on a regular rotation.
Still, it doesn't mean that the 20 teams in front of the Nuggets are "blind," because Braun is indeed a player with obvious flaws and is not suitable for all teams.
Before entering the NBA draft, the professional draft website NBADRAFT had a detailed description of Braun's weaknesses:
Can contribute in many ways, but not outstanding in any one skill;
A reasonably decent jumper, Braun has had an inconsistent career at Kansas, and while he rarely needs to take difficult shots (mostly spot-and-shoot after space appears) and has shot 44% three-point shooting in his freshman season, he's experienced one or two distinct slumps each year for the past two seasons... It can only be said that the free throw numbers are okay (74% shooting percentage throughout his college career), indicating that his shooting feel is not good;
Not always confident in projection, often choosing to pass the ball when there is an open opportunity, this "selflessness" sometimes leads to mistakes... He rarely takes mid-range shots, and if he can develop the throwing ability, it will be very helpful for him... The pace changes are lackluster, and once the cut route is blocked, it will be deadlocked... Ordinary ball control, dribbling is not particularly smooth and fast...
As an outsider, he has enough height and athleticism, but not enough reach (2.01m tall, but only 2m reach) to translate the versatility and blocking ability shown last season well into the professional arena...
Has some passing ability, but mostly "goes with the flow", not as an initiator or real second playmaker. In NBA-level games, it is impossible to attack around him.
To sum up, in the eyes of professional scouts, Braun's career prospects, before he started, were basically positioned as role players, and he was also a role player who was not outstanding in all aspects.
Of course, Braun can be a first-round pick, naturally has its shining point. NBADRAFT summed up his strengths this way:
As a 2.01m tall and 98kg swingman, he has excellent figure, strength and athletic ability;
A capable space builder with consistent shooting skills and footwork (37% three-point shooting in college), smart choices in offensive tempo;
In college, he excelled in conversion offense. The purpose of the running position is clear, and the projection when doing trailer follow-up is also very efficient. Demonstrated ability to hold the ball in the open field, finish above the basket, have enough strength and jumping skills, and be able to hit the ball after confrontation (54% two-point shooting rate in junior season);
The game feels good, being able to cut in time to score easily without the ball, and finding open shots on the wing when the opposing defensive formation collapses... Have strong assault ability, good at killing baskets and attacking baskets;
As a passer, there is no flashy performance, but he can effectively feed the big man and can also find open teammates on the outside by breaking through the ball... Decisive decision-making and never sticking to the ball;
Full of fighting spirit, full of energy... Rebounding at both ends of the offensive and defensive ends can contribute... Fight actively, and can quickly return to position after losing position;
This kind of player who can contribute in many ways, some of the role may not necessarily be reflected in the data... In Kansas (especially last season) it is often called upon to misplace defensive outside or frontcourt players, face challenges and never back down... As a defender off the ball has a good sense of knowing how to find his place between the ball and the person to disrupt the passing route... Tied for second on the team with 33 blocks, that's a pretty good number for a winger... The scoring data has improved exponentially year by year (5.3 to 9.7 to 14.1), and there is a significant improvement every season;
Have winning experience and championship pedigree (NCAA champion); There will definitely be coaches and teams who love his skills and intangible assets.
Finally, the template NBADRAFT provided Braun was: Zeiss Bardinger, a player who has only played 7 seasons in the NBA, averaged 7.9 points and 3 rebounds per game, and has never played in a playoff game.
Perfect match
Basically, Braun in scouting reports is the Braun we see in front of our eyes. In just one year, it's hard to expect any substantial "evolution" from a player who has just completed the transition from school to the professional arena.
The data also proves this: this season, Braun has averaged 15.5 minutes per game, 4.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, only 0.8 assists, shooting 49.5% from the field, 35.4% from three-point range and 62.5% from the free-throw line;
Catches accounted for 29.4% of all shots, while dry shots accounted for only 11.4%; 27.7% of three-point shots, 58.8% of near-basket shots within 10 feet, and only 13.5% of mid-range shots between the two; Shots that do not dribble at all after receiving the ball account for 47.4%;
Among all touching opportunities, 56.4% of the rounds held the ball for less than 2 seconds; Rounds of 2 to 6 seconds accounted for 39.1%, and only 4.5% of the balls were held for more than 6 seconds.
With an individual defensive efficiency of 111.3 (points conceded per 100 turns), it ranks second among all Nuggets regular rotation players, behind Aaron Gordon. When he was the primary defender, opposing players shot just 28.8 percent from three-point range.
Simply put, Braun's role with the Nuggets is simple and clear. The team doesn't need him to take on the task of carrying the ball, he doesn't have to be a full-fledged scorer, what he has to do is defend hard, fight hard, provide energy after coming on the bench, cut to the basket, look for open three-point opportunities, and provide threats in the conversion offense. As long as he does this well, he can become a valuable part of the team's rotation.
This, of course, has a direct relationship with the Nuggets' roster structure — a team that has the most talented playmaker in NBA history, and the vast majority of the team's offensive tactics will revolve around him, plus a star No. 1 like Jamal Murray, which has limited demand for a third point of possession.
At the same time, because none of the three top-paid players on the team are good at defense, the Nuggets value the defensive ability of their role players. And that's where Braun excels.
On June 16 last year, a full week before the draft, Denverstiffs published an article about Braun and analyzed his prospects for the Nuggets. It includes the following:
"Once in the league, he will immediately make an impact on receiving jump shots. Averaging just 3.3 three-point shots per game, he can seem hesitant at times, but both the process and the shooting percentage suggest he'll be an above-average shooter. He is also very capable of cutting off the ball, has excellent athleticism, and is a good aerial threat when he slips back and cuts into the basket. Playing around an attacking core like Jokic, he gets easy scoring opportunities to make the offense smoother. ”
"A player with an attitude like Brian will be useful in the Nuggets. He can make opponents uncomfortable, and there aren't many players like that on the Nuggets. His athleticism is underestimated, and his ability to fly, combined with his air awareness, is completely tailored for Jokic... Defensively, he can also make a lot of contributions. ”
It is worth mentioning that about two weeks ago, ESPN reporter Tim MacMahon reported that because the Nuggets super sixth man Bruce Brown's contract is about to expire this summer, and the team can only use "non-Byrd rights" to provide him with a $7.8 million starting salary contract, management is ready to leave as a free agent.
According to MacMahon: Once Brown leaves the Nuggets as a free agent, the Nuggets want rookie Christian Braun to be the sixth. If that's the case, next season is when Braun really breaks out.
What is right is the best
In this year's NBA Finals, both the Eastern and Western teams have only one All-Star of the season, in stark contrast to the superstar basketball we have been accustomed to for the past decade.
Having stars is certainly better than not having them, but too many stars can also be a problem. Basketball is ultimately a collective sport, and how to let the five people on the court perform their respective roles and squeeze them into a whole is the way to win. Otherwise, even if you have five Michael Jordans, you won't be able to win a championship.
The Lakers in the past two seasons are the best example, the Big Three are all well-known characters, but Wei Shao and Zhan Mei's natural mismatch has long become the biggest shackle of this team. It wasn't until February this year, when the Lakers sent Wei Shao away, that they began to turn things around. And in this deal, the biggest gain for the Lakers is not Russell, nor Beasley or Vanderbilt, but the liberation of Austin Reeves.
Is Reeves a better player than Wilson? Even without considering their past achievements, it's hard to draw such conclusions. But for the Lakers, Reeves is clearly more suitable than West, and the right one is the best.
The Nuggets' own roster also has positive and negative examples that can prove this. If you take a closer look at the Nuggets' current rotation, you'll see that with the exception of Jokic and Murray, all the other players are not known for their ability to handle the ball and do not possess the ball.
Aaron Gordon was one of the core players in the Magic, playing a much more role on the offensive end than he does now, holding the ball and singles, shooting three-pointers, almost everything, but with his ability, it is actually not enough to do all these things, and the result of catching ducks to the shelf is poor offensive efficiency and weakening his investment on the defensive end.
After switching to the Nuggets, Gordon's task was simplified, but he showed his strengths, becoming the most important player on the team except for Jokic and Murray, and was considered the Nuggets' version of Andrew Wiggins.
Gordon isn't the only example of success because of the fit, last summer, the Nuggets traded more ball-carrying Will Barton and Monte Morris for 3D specialized Pope, signed defensive and open Bruce Brown in free agency, including the draft draft with the 21st pick in the first round of Braun. It is all of these functional players who have become the most important addition to the Nuggets' dual-core side, helping the team achieve a historic breakthrough and reach the NBA Finals.
Conversely, the talented "Bones" Hyland who needed more offensive freedom and disobedience to discipline was sent away by the Nuggets halfway through the season. Maybe one day, he'll be able to make a name for himself elsewhere, but clearly, he's not a good fit for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets can be as successful as they are today, thanks to Jokic, Murray, and head coach Michael Malone, but they also have General Manager Kelvin Booth to thank them.
It is precisely because of him that this team that is not luxurious, but reasonably matched and has amazing combined forces. It is precisely because of him that Braun has today's shining performance.