2021 is the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of a new journey of comprehensively building a modern socialist country, and China's economic development has attracted much attention.
In the face of complex and severe domestic and foreign environments, China's economy has generally maintained a recovery trend, the main macro indicators are in a reasonable range, and on the basis of overall "stability", it continues to "advance" towards high-quality development, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual economic and social development goals.
But at the same time, economic growth has fallen, commodity prices have risen, and power curtailment in many parts of the country... The global epidemic trend and economic trend tend to be complex, some new situations and old problems are intertwined and superimposed, and the risks and challenges remain unabated.
To observe China's economy, we must look at it with a comprehensive dialectical and long-term perspective, so as to recognize the general trend in short-term fluctuations, explore deep momentum in pressure challenges, boost confidence in bright resilience, and gather strength for unswervingly promoting high-quality development.
Xinhua News Agency reporters recently sorted out ten major social concerns and hot issues of concern at home and abroad, and interviewed authoritative departments and authoritative figures to respond.
Source: Xinhua News Agency
1 How to view the current economic trend,
What is china's economic staying power?
Compared with the first three quarters of this year, China's economy increased by 9.8% year-on-year, an average growth rate of 5.2% in two years, and the year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter fell back to 4.9%.
The growth rate of 9.8% in the first three quarters is much higher than the annual growth target of "more than 6%" set at the beginning of the year, and it is also higher than the global average growth rate and the growth rate of major economies, which can be described as hard-won and rare. It should be said that China's economy still maintains a sustained recovery trend since the second half of last year.
However, compared with the economic growth rate of 18.3% in the first quarter and 7.9% in the second quarter of this year, the growth rate of "breaking 5" in the third quarter has attracted considerable attention, and even caused some worried voices.
What are the reasons for the slowdown in quarterly growth?
The cardinality effect is a big factor. -6.8%, 3.2%, 4.9%, 6.5%, the upward line drawn by The Chinese economy in the four quarters of last year indicates that the trend of China's economy this year will inevitably be "high and low", and the slope is relatively steep.
Short-term factors also have a certain impact. Since the second half of the year, the domestic epidemic situation has been partially distributed, Henan and Shanxi have suffered heavy rains and floods, coupled with multiple factors such as the slowdown in global economic growth and the high price of bulk raw materials, the road to economic recovery has encountered difficulties.
In the case of abundant regulatory tools, the economic growth rate must be a little faster - in the face of economic downward challenges, the central government maintains its strategic determination, resolutely does not engage in "flood irrigation", and takes measures such as continuously promoting green and low-carbon development and reducing dependence on real estate and debt, releasing policy signals such as not taking the old road of extensive growth and firmly moving towards high-quality development.
"The slowdown in the third quarter is good for the Chinese economy in the long run." Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung commented that if China does not undergo these structural adjustments, economic growth will be faster, but China's economy may not be on the right track.
To observe the economic situation, we must look at the short term, but also look at the long term and the overall situation, so that we can see the general trend from the clouds to the day.
Under the challenge of multiple risks, the characteristics of China's economic "stability" are still distinct, and the highlights are prominent.
A graduate (left) talks with staff of a recruitment company at the main venue of Nanchang University at the main venue of the "100 School Recruitment" event held in Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province, on October 23. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Peng Zhaozhi
1. The four major macroeconomic indicators of "economic growth, employment, prices, and balance of payments" show that the "basic market" of China's economy is still stable
In the first three quarters, the economy was still operating in a reasonable range; 10.45 million new jobs were created in cities and towns across the country, completing the annual target of 95%; the national consumer prices rose by 0.6% year-on-year, and the overall price level was low and stable; imports, exports and the use of foreign capital still maintained a high level of growth, and foreign exchange reserves have remained above 3.2 trillion US dollars for five consecutive months.
On June 8, the harvester harvested wheat in a wheat field in Pingyi County, Linyi City, Shandong Province. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Wu Jiquan)
2. The production situation is stable and improving, and the momentum of innovation is constantly increasing
The increase in autumn grain production has become a foregone conclusion, and the annual grain output is expected to hit a record high again; in the first three quarters, the average growth rate of production and investment in high-tech manufacturing industry in both years was double digits; the output of new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits increased by 172.5%, 57.8%, and 43.1% respectively year-on-year...
On July 1, industrial robots were tested in the industrial robot production workshop of Nanjing Eston Automation Co., Ltd. in Jiangning District, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Bo
3. The profit of the enterprise has increased steadily, and the economic benefits have been continuously improved
In the first 8 months, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 49.5% year-on-year, an increase of 42.9% over the same period in 2019; in the first three quarters, the recovery growth trend of fiscal revenue was generally stable, and the national general public budget revenue increased by 16.3% year-on-year; after deducting the impact of price factors, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide increased by 9.7%, which was basically synchronized with GDP growth...
Under multiple tests, we must strengthen our confidence in development, and we must remain sober in the steady recovery.
On the one hand, we must see that under the more complex domestic and foreign situation, economic growth in the fourth quarter and early next year still faces many risks and challenges. Among the four major macroeconomic indicators, the structural contradictions of employment are highlighted, and the "scissor difference" between CPI and PPI is expanding; in the "troika", there are still many factors restricting investment and consumer demand...
On the other hand, we must firmly believe that although China's economy is facing more complex phased, structural and cyclical problems, we have the means and ability to stabilize the sustained recovery trend, maintain strategic determination, and continuously enhance the endogenous driving force of the economy.
In the face of pressure, confidence is more precious than gold.
China is a very large economy with strong resilience, which comes from the competitiveness of nearly 150 million market players, from the integrity of the economic system, from the super-large domestic market and the unremitting pursuit of hundreds of millions of people to achieve a better life through hard work.
At present, international institutions generally predict that China's economy will still achieve economic growth of about 8% this year.
Looking at the general trend, we are fully capable and have the conditions to achieve this year's economic and social development goals, the general trend of China's long-term economic improvement will not change, and China's economy will certainly move steadily and far on the track of high-quality development.
2 What is the staying power of consumer investment,
How to play the game of expanding domestic demand?
Consumption and investment are the "twin engines" for expanding domestic demand. In the first half of this year, the contribution rate of domestic demand to China's economy exceeded 80%.
Consumption is picking up. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods 318057 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4% year-on-year, maintaining double-digit rapid growth. In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.4% year-on-year, 1.9 percentage points faster than the previous month, and market sales further accelerated.
Under the spread of the global epidemic, the resilience of China's consumer market has become more prominent, and the main role of consumer demand in economic growth has further emerged. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 64.8%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points over the first half of the year. At the same time, upgraded consumption has grown rapidly, and online consumption continues to be hot.
Consumption also shows ups and downs. In August, affected by the outbreak of the epidemic at many points, consumption increased by only 2.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 6 percentage points from the previous month, a new low in the past year; in September, the epidemic was effectively controlled, and the consumption promotion policy and the Mid-Autumn Festival consumption were pulled, and consumption further picked up.
On October 2, people played in Shanghai's Yu Garden. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Xiang
There is no shortage of bright spots in investment. In the first three quarters, the country's fixed asset investment increased by 7.3% year-on-year, achieving stable growth. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 7.5 percentage points higher than that of all investments; the investment in high-tech industries increased by 18.7% year-on-year.
However, it should also be noted that in the first three quarters, the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods and fixed asset investment slowed down compared with the first half of the year. The epidemic has repeatedly caused a sustained negative impact on service consumption and contact consumption, and the growth rate of investment has slowed down due to the large increase in raw material costs and the impact of the epidemic and flood conditions.
Considering the current volatile external environment and the possible decline in export growth in the coming period, it is more critical to stabilize and expand domestic demand.
What is the future of consumption? In view of last year's base factors, this year's consumption growth rate will generally show a pattern of "high before and low after", and consumption in October and even the entire fourth quarter will continue to recover steadily, and it is expected that the total retail sales of social consumer goods throughout the year are expected to reach 44 trillion yuan.
Overall, China's consumer market has great potential, the momentum of upgrading is obvious, and the foundation for consumption recovery is still stable.
On October 7, two young people watch a poster for the movie "Chosin Lake" at a theater in Beijing. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Xin
What is the consumption potential of the Chinese people? Through this set of data, it can be seen that since the release of the National Day movie "Changjin Lake", the box office has exceeded 5.2 billion yuan, and more than 100 million people have watched the movie, which foreign media praised as "an amazing number that Hollywood movies cannot match since the outbreak of the epidemic".
On the day Universal Beijing Resort opens, tickets sell out quickly. The Wall Street Journal believes that the "ticket space" reflects the huge consumption enthusiasm of Chinese tourists.
In the future, a series of policies to promote consumption will continue to land: further stabilize and boost bulk consumption, accelerate the cultivation and construction of international consumption centers, increase the development of rural markets, promote faster and better recovery of the catering market, and promote the accelerated development of new consumption... Consumption potential is expected to be further unleashed.
There is also a supporting basis for the steady growth of investment. In recent days, major projects in Zhejiang, Tianjin, Hunan and other places have started construction one after another. In the outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the "road map" for expanding effective investment has been drawn up, and 102 major engineering projects have been steadily advanced.
In the coming months, the introduction of more measures to expand domestic demand is expected to accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, further smooth the domestic economic cycle, and more effectively stimulate China's super-large-scale market potential.
3 whether the "highlight moment" of foreign trade can be sustained,
How to stabilize the main body and stabilize the order?
Foreign trade, in the latest three quarterly reports of China's economy, can be described as a very bright performance in many data -
In the first three quarters, the total import and export value of trade in goods was 28.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.7% over the same period last year, especially in September, exports were exceptionally strong, with an increase of 28.1% year-on-year, far exceeding market expectations, and the pulling effect on the national economy continued to increase.
Since the beginning of this year, some foreign institutions and foreign media have repeatedly noted the strong growth of China's foreign trade. Reuters said China's supply chain resilience is difficult to underestimate. Barclays analysts said this reflected "continued global demand for Chinese goods."
On September 28, the "Shanghai" China-Europe train started from Shanghai and sailed to Hamburg, Germany. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Ding Ting
Under the impact of the epidemic, global trade has shrunk, but China's foreign trade has maintained positive growth for 16 consecutive months, especially since this year, it has maintained double-digit growth:
In terms of land transport, the China-Europe express train, known as the "steel camel", has accumulated more than 40,000 trains, becoming the "destiny link" of all countries to fight the epidemic hand in hand; in the first three quarters of the sea, the national port completed cargo throughput of 11.548 billion tons, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year; completed container throughput of 211 million TEUs, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year.
A steamship berths at the container terminal in the Jingtang Port Area of Tangshan Port on October 23 (drone photo). Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhu Xudong
The "highlight moment" of foreign trade stems from the "dividend effect" of China's effective prevention and control of the epidemic, and is also the embodiment of the long-term fundamentals of China's economy and the highlighting of the resilience and strength of foreign trade.
The biggest uncertainty in global merchandise trade comes from the pandemic. China has taken the lead in controlling the epidemic and resuming work and production in an orderly manner, providing a good environment for production and export.
Behind the eye-catching data, there are not no hidden worries. Looking at the foreign trade data since the beginning of this year, from a quarterly point of view, the year-on-year growth rate of China's imports and exports in the first, second and third quarters has shown a gradual downward trend. From a monthly point of view, the growth rate of imports and exports in September fell by 3.5 percentage points compared with August.
This is the scene of the 130th Canton Fair filmed in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, on October 15. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Dawei
Considering the factors such as the high foreign trade base in the second half of last year, the decline in the growth rate of foreign trade this year and the overall situation of "high before and low after" are high probability events. In particular, the recent flood conditions, epidemic situations and tight power supply in some areas have also formed a customized contract for exports.
Behind the high orders, insufficient transportation capacity, high freight rates, rising prices of commodities and raw materials, and the pressure of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate... Some goods can not go out, there are no profits, which has become a concern for many foreign trade enterprises at present.
How long can the "highlight moment" of foreign trade last?
On the one hand, as the global epidemic is gradually controlled, the resumption of work and production accelerates, and external demand increases, it will have a further pulling effect on China's exports; but on the other hand, "one-time factors" such as the sharp increase in the export volume of epidemic prevention materials will gradually fade. Positive and negative factors affect each other, and the challenges facing foreign trade are still not small.
Looking forward to the future, although the growth rate of imports and exports in the fourth quarter may decline slightly, we still have reason to be full of confidence: the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, the development trend of stable and qualitative rise in foreign trade volume has been well supported, the domestic and international dual cycles have promoted each other, the level of China's foreign trade added value and export products has been continuously improved, and a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade have landed one after another, helping to alleviate the concerns of foreign trade enterprises.
According to the monitoring of relevant departments, by the first quarter or even the first half of next year, the orders of key foreign trade enterprises will still be sufficient. It is foreseeable that the import and export throughout the year is still expected to maintain steady growth, and foreign trade will continue to play an important role in the pulling effect on China's economy.
4 How to view supply-side structural reform,
How to go well on the road of high-quality development?
Under the current complex and changeable situation of China's economy, how to do a good job in deepening the main line of supply-side structural reform?
On the evening of October 21, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a news that it will implement and orderly promote energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries step by step, focusing on key industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, and calcium carbide in the first batch.
Workers inspect the quality of their products at Hebei Xintiehu Petroleum Machinery Co., Ltd., located in Renqiu City, Hebei Province, on October 15. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Mou Yu
The more we are under pressure on economic development, the more we see the essence behind the problem, and the more we can highlight the determination and determination of high-quality development.
Since the beginning of this year, the characteristics of China's high-quality economic development have become more distinct, the economic structure has been adjusted and optimized, the quality and efficiency of development have been continuously improved, and the momentum has been continuously enhanced. In particular, the utilization rate of industrial capacity is at a good level, the asset-liability ratio of enterprises has declined, the growth rate of investment in education, health and other short-boards is faster than the growth of all investment, and the results of supply-side structural reform have continued to consolidate.
However, at the same time, affected by the accelerated recovery of the domestic economy and the rise in international commodity prices, some resource-based industries have once again shown an expansion trend, and the "two highs" project has risen, and the energy consumption intensity of 9 provinces and regions in the first half of the year has not decreased year-on-year.
Relevant analysts warn that as the epidemic situation abroad is gradually under control, the production capacity of major economies has begun to recover, and it is necessary to be vigilant that the problem of overcapacity may rise after the export correction.
These phenomena highlight that the supply side is still the main contradiction in economic work at present and in the coming period, and supply-side structural reform must and must remain the main direction of economic work.
At the end of July, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee clearly and resolutely curbed the blind development of the "two highs" projects; from the central ecological and environmental protection inspectors to special inspections, many places were named and exposed; and the electricity consumption of high-energy-consuming industries was strictly controlled. Adhere to the positioning that the house is used to live, not to speculate, do not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, and accelerate the development of affordable rental housing...
With a series of pragmatic measures have landed: in September, crude steel, steel, electrolytic aluminum and other production in the first half of the year respectively hit a new monthly high in recent years after continuing to fall, steel exports have also fallen from the high in the first half of the year to less than 5 million tons.
"China's slowing economic growth is not enough to stop it from introducing a series of policies that prioritize long-term structural reforms rather than short-term growth." According to the analysis of the Financial Times website, the growth rate of 9.8% in the first three quarters is much higher than the annual economic growth target of more than 6%. This provides a "window of opportunity" for China to move away from the traditional growth model.
In fact, as early as the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed that it is necessary to make good use of the precious time window, concentrate on promoting reform and innovation, and make a good start to the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" with high-quality development. To take the first step in building a new development pattern and seeing a new atmosphere, we must adhere to the main line of deepening supply-side structural reform.
Deepening supply-side structural reform fundamentally depends on reform and innovation.
Since the beginning of this year, from consolidating the results of "three to one reduction and one supplement" to promoting the construction of a high-standard market system; from comprehensively promoting the reform of mixed ownership of state-owned enterprises and supporting the reform and development of private enterprises, to focusing on creating a market-oriented, law-based and international business environment; from supporting the high-level reform and opening up of Pudong New Area to build a leading area for socialist modernization construction to accelerating the construction of Hainan Free Trade Port... Reform and innovation continue to lay out the landing, and strive to open up the blockages that restrict the adaptation of supply and demand and the flow of factors.
The one who walks a hundred miles is half ninety. Deepening supply-side structural reform is a protracted battle. Grasp the general tone of the work of seeking progress in a stable manner, firmly grasp this main line, and work firmly, boldly, in a down-to-earth manner, with precision, and without looking back, China's economy will surely usher in a beautiful prospect of high-quality development.
5 How to effectively deal with the problem of power curtailment,
How to ensure a safe and stable supply of energy this winter and next spring?
Since mid-September, the country's electricity supply and demand has been tight, some areas have adopted orderly electricity consumption measures, from September 23 to 26, some areas appeared to pull the gate and cut the power, causing widespread concern in society.
Coal miners in Qianyingzi, Suzhou City, Anhui Province, sift through thermal coal on October 20. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Han Xu
China's power generation capacity coal power accounted for a relatively high proportion. Power curtailment reflects the tight supply and demand for energy, especially coal.
From a global perspective, since the beginning of this year, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the economy is gradually recovering, and global energy demand is increasing significantly; many countries have encountered energy problems, and energy prices have risen sharply.
From a domestic perspective, the rapid growth of energy demand has led to tight supply and demand of coal, and prices have risen sharply. Large-scale losses by power generation enterprises have affected the ability and willingness to generate electricity.
On October 21, at Wanneng Hefei Power Generation Co., Ltd., located in Hefei, Anhui Province, staff monitored all aspects of power generation operation through a large screen. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Junxi
At the same time, the economic recovery of some provinces is strong, and the demand for electricity is growing rapidly. From January to September, the national electricity consumption growth rate reached 12.9%, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in many provinces reached 16% to 20%. Such a high growth in electricity consumption has brought great difficulties to the supply of electricity. In particular, in some places, the dependence on high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries is still relatively strong, and a large number of "two high" projects have been launched, which has aggravated the tension between energy supply and demand.
In addition, the lack of hydropower and the unstable output of new energy also affect the power supply capacity.
At present, the northern region has gradually entered the heating season. It is predicted that the temperature in the north and other areas this winter will be lower than the same period of the year, and there may even be extreme weather.
This winter, can China ensure a safe and stable supply of energy?
On the evening of October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission issued three consecutive documents, saying that it would adopt a series of necessary measures, including intervening in coal prices according to law, to promote the return of the coal market to rationality and ensure the safe and stable supply of energy. On the evening of the 19th, the main contract of thermal coal futures "locked" the fall stop board in a short period of time. In the spot market, the price of coal, which has been soaring all the way, has been lowered.
Accelerate the release of coal capacity under safe conditions. Since the end of September, a batch of production coal mines have been added, and the average daily output has increased by more than 1.2 million tons compared with September, and the daily output on October 18 has exceeded 11.6 million tons, a new high this year.
This is a scene taken at night at the Coal Terminal of Tianjin Port taken on October 11. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Ran
The National Energy Administration recently notified that it will actively promote the ability of new energy power generation projects to be combined and fully issued, and further improve the power supply capacity。
The market-oriented reform of feed-in tariffs for coal-fired power generation has been further deepened。 The floating range of the transaction price of the coal-fired power generation market has been expanded from the current upward fluctuation of no more than 10% and the downward floating of no more than 15% in principle, to the upward and downward fluctuation of no more than 20% in principle, and the market transaction price of high-energy-consuming enterprises is not subject to the restriction of 20% increase。
This reform not only alleviates the operational difficulties of coal-fired power generation enterprises to a certain extent, encourages enterprises to increase power supply, but also more fully transmits the upward pressure on power generation costs, curbs unreasonable electricity consumption, and promotes the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure.
This winter and next spring, how to ensure that the masses are safe and warm through the winter?
The relevant departments of the state have recently made many statements to fully guarantee the electricity and gas consumption of people's livelihood this winter and next spring.
According to statistics, China's residents' electricity consumption accounts for about 15% of the total electricity consumption, and the proportion of people's livelihood gas accounts for less than 50% of the total gas consumption. In order to ensure the stable supply and price of heat and electricity for people's livelihood, the National Development and Reform Commission has promoted the full coverage of medium- and long-term contracts for coal for power generation and heating and gas for people's livelihood. At present, the contract signing rate in most provinces has reached or is close to 100%, and the coal gap in medium- and long-term contracts in some provinces has been implemented as a coal source, and the signing of contracts is being stepped up.
At the same time, the relevant departments guide local governments and enterprises to adhere to the priority of people's livelihood, scientifically formulate orderly energy use plans, and ensure that people's livelihood energy is not affected.
6 A new round of restructuring of global supply chains,
How does China take the initiative?
Some countries are moving against globalization and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the world has brought unprecedented challenges to the stability of the global industrial chain and the smooth flow of the supply chain. From the shortage of epidemic prevention materials and the suspension of production, to the shortage of vaccine supply and the "lack of core" in the manufacturing industry, the problem of supply chain risk is becoming more and more prominent worldwide.
The current "chip shortage" is typical of it. From mobile phones, televisions, computers, automobiles and other industries, to 5G, artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and autonomous driving, many are plagued by the shortage of "industrial food" chips. This has also made more and more countries realize that the supply chain layout cannot "put eggs in the same basket".
Under external shocks, the longer the supply chain, the greater the risk of breakage. When it comes to supply chain, the industry buzzword has shifted from "low cost" in previous years to "resilience" today. More and more countries are beginning to consider balancing production efficiency and industrial security, and the adjustment of global supply chains has accelerated.
The trend of localization, regionalization and decentralization of supply chains has become more prominent: economies such as the United States and Europe have accelerated the introduction of manufacturing relocation plans to accelerate the localization of global supply chains. While shrinking global supply chains, multinational companies are further promoting the regionalization of supply chains to neighbors, and diversifying and decentralizing global procurement in order to reduce the risk of centralized procurement, including increasing the source of procurement outside China.
In this situation, will the adjustment of the global supply chain bring challenges to the security of China's industrial chain?
As far as the Chinese market is concerned, there are indeed some foreign-funded enterprises in China that have accelerated their layout adjustment. Especially after the outbreak of the epidemic, the news that foreign companies announced the closure of Chinese factories from time to time caused concern.
However, it should be noted that the layout of multinational companies in China has been dynamically adjusting, and with the upgrading of China's industries and the changes in the comparative advantages of production factors, some multinational enterprises will leave and some new enterprises will also enter. However, on the whole, foreign-funded enterprises have entered more and left less, and increased more and decreased less. For the relocation of some low-end industries, it is due to the law of economic development and also conforms to the trend of high-quality development in China.
This time, China has controlled the epidemic in a timely manner, providing stability and security for the normal operation of the industrial chain and supply chain, and increasing the stickiness of the layout of multinational companies. Foreign media have reported that a group of multinational companies that once wanted to leave China are planning to move their factories in Southeast Asia back to China as soon as possible. Because since the outbreak of the epidemic, China has become more and more a "reliable production location".
China's "magnetic attraction" to foreign investment is increasing day by day. According to the survey, more than 90% of foreign companies in China are mainly facing the Chinese market. With a population of 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income groups, China's consumer market size and growth potential are unmatched. Coupled with the outstanding comprehensive advantages such as complete industrial facilities, perfect infrastructure and abundant human resources, they have become a magnet for attracting foreign investment.
The data released by the Ministry of Commerce recently also confirmed this trend: from January to September, China's actual use of foreign capital was 859.51 billion yuan, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year, continuing to maintain double-digit high growth, highlighting that China is still one of the best investment destinations in the world.
As the world's second-largest economy, how can China take the initiative in the accelerated adjustment of global supply chains?
Under the impact of the epidemic, China's supply chain has shown strong resilience, but it has also exposed a series of problems. In the future, it is important and urgent to focus on the breakpoints of the industrial chain supply chain and enhance stability and competitiveness.
Strengthen scientific and technological innovation and the resilience of the industrial chain supply chain, strengthen basic research, promote applied research, carry out special actions to supplement the chain and strengthen the chain, implement the industrial base reconstruction project, accelerate the solution of the "card neck" problem, accelerate the digital transformation of the manufacturing industry, and develop "specialized and new" small and medium-sized enterprises... China is constantly making efforts in the action of replenishing the chain and strengthening the chain.
It is worth noting that enhancing the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain supply chain does not mean moving towards closure and internal consideration, but promoting a higher level of opening up and forging stronger comprehensive competitiveness in open cooperation.
Deepen the reform of factor marketization, fully mobilize the vitality and dividends of production factors; increase the decentralized layout of regions and the world, form a multi-dimensional industrial chain and supply chain system; launch more measures to expand opening up, and create a better business environment, so that China can occupy a more favorable position in the restructuring of the global supply chain.
7 How to look at "making the cake bigger" and
"Divide the cake" and achieve common prosperity?
Zhejiang's high-quality development and construction of common prosperity demonstration zone "debuted", the tenth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission studied the issue of solid promotion of common prosperity...
This is a drone photo taken on July 12 in Henggang Village, Yaozhuang Town, Jiashan City, Zhejiang Province. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Yu
Since the beginning of this year, with the gradual deployment of promoting common prosperity, social concern has continued to heat up. At the same time, there are also individual biased voices, misinterpreting the promotion of common prosperity as "eating a big pot of rice", engaging in egalitarianism, and even "robbing the rich to help the poor".
Under the current background of the times and under historical conditions, why should we put the gradual realization of common prosperity for all the people in a more important position? And how to promote common prosperity?
Common prosperity is the essential requirement of socialism and the common expectation of the masses of the people.
On September 22, at the Rice Field Fun Games held in Datong Town, Jiande City, Zhejiang Province, farmers participated in the "Rice Picking Relay" fun competition. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Yu
Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Party Central Committee has grasped the new changes in the stage of development, placed the gradual realization of common prosperity for all the people in a more important position, won the battle against poverty, and built a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, thus creating good conditions for promoting common prosperity. At present, it has reached the historical stage of solidly promoting common prosperity.
We are moving toward the second centenary goal, adapting to the changes in the main contradictions in our society, and better meeting the people's growing needs for a better life.
Promoting common prosperity is also a practical need for China's development. At present, the problem of unbalanced and insufficient development in China is still prominent, and the gap between urban and rural areas and income distribution is relatively large. The new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation has a profound impact on employment and income distribution, including some negative effects, which need to be effectively addressed and solved.
Just as a moderately prosperous society is built in an all-round way, the common prosperity of all people is a general concept.
From a comprehensive point of view, common prosperity is the prosperity of 1.4 billion people, not the prosperity of a small number of people; it is the prosperity of the people's material and spiritual lives, the realization of all-round human development and social progress, and the sharing of the fruits of reform and development and a happy and beautiful life.
From the perspective of differences, the resource endowments of different regions and urban and rural areas in China are different, and there are also differences in the ability and quality of each individual. Common prosperity does not mean that all regions and all people are rich at the same time, nor can different regions and different groups of people achieve uniform income and living standards.
From a stage perspective, achieving common prosperity is a long-term and arduous process. We must maintain historical patience and not go beyond the actual stage of development; we must also do our best, do what we can, and build the guarantee and improvement of people's livelihood on the basis of economic development and financial sustainability.
To achieve common prosperity and "make the cake bigger" in high-quality development, it is the premise and necessary condition.
Common prosperity is not to raise slackers, we must encourage hard work and innovation to get rich, create more inclusive and fair conditions for the people to improve their education level and enhance their development ability, prevent the solidification of social classes, smooth upward mobility channels, create opportunities for more people to get rich, form a development environment in which everyone participates, and avoid "inner volume" and "lying flat".
Common prosperity is not to "eat a big pot of rice", we must adhere to the public ownership system as the mainstay, the common development of the economy under various ownership systems, vigorously give play to the important role of the public ownership economy in promoting common prosperity, and at the same time promote the healthy development of the non-public ownership economy and the healthy growth of non-public economic figures. At the same time, it is necessary to emphasize that the first to get rich brings the rich after the rich, and to help the latter get rich, and focus on encouraging the leaders who work hard, operate legally, and dare to start a business.
One of the effective ways to achieve common prosperity is to "divide the cake" through income distribution reform.
Correctly handle the relationship between efficiency and fairness, build a basic institutional arrangement for the coordination of primary distribution, redistribution, and tertiary distribution, and increase the adjustment of taxation, social security, transfer payments, etc. and improve accuracy.
Among them, the third distribution of charity is on a voluntary basis, playing a supplementary role in improving the distribution structure, not mandatory, and the national tax policy should give appropriate incentives, which cannot be misinterpreted as "robbing the rich and helping the poor".
In the process of "dividing the cake well", we should expand the proportion of middle-income groups, increase the income of low-income groups, rationally adjust high incomes, ban illegal incomes, and promote the formation of an olive-shaped distribution structure with large middle and small ends in China, laying a solid foundation for high-quality economic and social development.
Realizing common prosperity will be an arduous and long-term task that accompanies the process of china's modernization, and we must be down-to-earth and make achievements for a long time; the realization of common prosperity is also the goal that our generation "can see and touch," which encourages us to strive for it more actively and promisingly.
8 How to view the development of some industries,
Strengthen anti-monopoly and prevent capital
What will disorderly expansion bring?
Recently, the relevant departments have issued a series of regulatory measures against illegal acts such as disorderly capital expansion and monopoly.
Rectifying market order according to law and promoting fair competition is a manifestation of a mature market economy. A series of regulatory measures aim at "disorder" and emphasize "norms".
In recent years, in some areas, the negative effects caused by the disorderly expansion of capital have begun to appear: forcing operators to "choose one of the two" and "pinching mergers and acquisitions" and other behaviors to squeeze the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, harming the market environment of fair competition; big data killing, privacy data leakage and other infringement of consumer rights and interests, causing public questions and concerns.
In the face of market chaos and the highly concentrated development trend of some industries, a series of regulatory measures are pragmatic actions and necessary actions to promote the healthy development of related industries and promote social fairness and justice.
With the strengthening of regulations by regulatory authorities on some industries, there have been a small number of distortions and noises of "suppressing the private economy", which is groundless. Fair competition is the essential requirement of the market economy, and strengthening anti-monopoly and deepening the implementation of the fair competition policy are the inherent requirements for improving the socialist market economic system.
According to the Annual Report on China's Anti-Monopoly Law Enforcement (2020) released by the State Administration for Market Regulation, from the perspective of monopolistic behavior, the number of cases involving "abuse of administrative power to eliminate and restrict competition" is relatively large. From the perspective of fields, there are more anti-monopoly law enforcement involving public utilities, medicine and other fields.
This fully proves that anti-monopoly is aimed at violations of laws and regulations, not at enterprises with specific ownership, let alone specific enterprises with specific ownership.
Capital is an important force in promoting the development of productive forces. After decades of sustained development, China's economy has accumulated huge capital energy. To prevent the disorderly expansion of capital, it is necessary to let capital serve the overall situation of economic and social development through guidance and standardization, and play an active role in promoting scientific and technological progress, prospering the market economy, facilitating people's lives, and participating in international competition, rather than competing with community vendors for the last "copper plate".
It should be noted that through strict law enforcement and the improvement of rules, monopoly and competitive disorder in some areas with strong social reactions have been corrected, and the initial results of preventing the disorderly expansion of capital have also been widely recognized by the public and the industry.
The data shows that under the guidance of a series of policies, the flow of capital is quietly changing, and scientific and technological innovation, new energy fields, high-end manufacturing, and industrial Internet have become the new orientation of capital layout.
Standardizing in development and developing in norms will surely effectively promote innovation and promote co-governance. China is recognized as one of the leading countries in the development of the global digital economy, and it is more necessary to promote the healthy development of the industry through standardized governance. Proceeding from the strategic height of building a new advantage in national competition, we should adhere to the principle of attaching equal importance to development and standardization, and better promote the platform economy to serve high-quality development and high-quality life.
In the face of the new situation and new problems, we must pay close attention to making up for shortcomings, especially around the platform economy, scientific and technological innovation, information security, people's livelihood security and other key areas to strengthen research, clarify the rules, draw a bottom line, set up a "traffic light", and provide a fair, transparent and predictable good competitive environment for all kinds of market entities to invest in and develop industries and regulate healthy development.
9 Consolidate and expand the achievements in poverty alleviation
How to effectively connect rural revitalization,
How to make a good start in comprehensively promoting rural revitalization?
In 2021, the focus of China's "three rural" work has undergone a historic shift - after the victory in poverty alleviation, we must comprehensively promote rural revitalization. How to keep the bottom line of not returning to poverty on a large scale, and how to lay out the rural revitalization, domestic and foreign countries are very concerned about this.
The Party Central Committee decided that after the completion of the goal of poverty alleviation, a 5-year transition period will be set up from the date of poverty alleviation for counties that have escaped poverty. During the transition period, it is necessary to maintain the overall stability of the main support policies.
Focusing on the effective connection between promoting the consolidation and expansion of the results of poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, China has established a dynamic monitoring and support mechanism to prevent returning to poverty, and accurately assist and dynamically clear the identified population that is easy to return to poverty and cause poverty.
Do a good job of linking policies, teams, and funds. Maintain the continuity and stability of the policy, "help the horse, send a ride", and continue to do a good job in the follow-up support work of poverty alleviation and relocation.
At present, the adjustment of rural revitalization institutions and teams is basically in place, more than 30 convergence policies are steadily advancing, 160 national rural revitalization key counties have been identified, a number of inclined support policies have been introduced, and actions such as "ten thousand enterprises and ten thousand villages" have been implemented.
During the transition period, we will continue to insist on the five-level secretaries to work together to consolidate and expand the achievements in poverty alleviation, link up and promote all aspects of rural revitalization, and continue to strengthen support in villages. By the end of August, there were 172,000 village-based task forces nationwide, with 563,000 village-based cadres, including 186,000 first secretaries stationed in villages; 52,000 village-based cadres who had completed their term of office across the country took the initiative to ask for help and continue to be stationed in villages.
By the end of September this year, about 5 million people had been included in the monitoring of the prevention of returning to poverty. Judging from the monitoring situation, it should be said that the bottom line of not returning to poverty on a large scale can be maintained.
If the nation wants to be rejuvenated, the countryside must be revitalized.
The depth, breadth and difficulty of the comprehensive implementation of the rural revitalization strategy are no less than those of poverty alleviation, and it is necessary to strengthen the top-level design and promote it with more powerful measures and more powerful forces.
Farmers in Qianbumen Village, Cuijiamiao Town, Fucheng County, Hengshui City, Hebei Province, harvest wheat in a wheat field on June 13. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhu Xudong
The key to the layout of the plot is to focus on the "two guarantees," "two key points," and "two good starts" -- to ensure that grain production remains above 1.3 trillion kilograms and to ensure that there is no large-scale return to poverty; to solve the two key problems of seeds and cultivated land; and to comprehensively promote rural revitalization and accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas to make a good start.
In the first three quarters, the "three rural areas" work showed the momentum of "two stability" and "two advances":
In terms of "two stability", we have overcome difficulties such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and flood natural disasters, the production of summer grain, early rice and autumn grain has increased in an all-round way, and the supply of "vegetable basket" products has been sufficient; the results of poverty alleviation have been continuously consolidated, and the top-level design of rural revitalization has been continuously improved, providing a guarantee for better and comprehensive promotion next year.
A high-speed train passes through Woyejian in Gongzhuling City, Jilin Province, on Sept. 19 (drone photo). Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Nan
In terms of "two advances", agricultural modernization has grasped the "two key points" of seeds and cultivated land, and the "Action Plan for the Revitalization of the Seed Industry" has adopted and launched a census of germplasm resources to accelerate the construction of high-standard farmland; rural modernization has actively deployed around the five-year action of improving the rural living environment and the action of rural construction, and has made a series of progress.
On October 7, tourists took a sightseeing train to enjoy the autumn scenery of rice fields in the villages of Shanli village in Tuanyaozhuang Township, Zunhua City, Tangshan, Hebei Province. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Liu Mancang)
The transcript at the beginning shows a heavy weight:
-- The annual grain output will hit a record high again, maintaining more than 1.3 trillion catties for seven consecutive years. Pig production has fully recovered.
-- Rural enrichment industry development, rural leisure tourism basically recovered to the same period in 2019, and online retail sales of agricultural products maintained double-digit growth. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of rural residents reached 13,726 yuan, and the actual growth rate after deducting price factors was 11.2%.
——The penetration rate of rural sanitary toilets has exceeded 68%, the security system such as medical and old-age education has been accelerated and improved, and the efficiency of rural governance has been continuously improved.
Embarking on a new journey to solve the problem of unbalanced and inadequate development, the key and difficult points are still in the "three rural areas," and it is necessary to comprehensively promote rural revitalization as a major historical task for comprehensively building a modern socialist country and promoting the common prosperity of all the people.
10 How to guard the bottom line of financial risk prevention,
How to deal with the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention?
Since the second half of the year, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, the risk challenges at home and abroad have increased, and the debt risks of individual enterprises have appeared, and it is very important to accurately judge the current financial risk situation.
Under the strong leadership of the Cpc Central Committee, after several years of continuous efforts, the battle to prevent and resolve major financial risks has achieved important stage results, and the bottom line of no systemic financial risks has been maintained, but financial risks still exist and show new situations and new characteristics.
On the one hand, the disposal of non-performing assets in the banking industry has been greatly promoted, risk institutions such as Baoshang Bank have been properly disposed of according to law, and all P2P online lending institutions have ceased to operate...
The rising momentum of China's systemic financial risks has been effectively curbed, and the total assets of high-risk banks currently account for only 1.4% of the total assets of the banking industry, and the financial derealization to virtual and blind expansion have been fundamentally reversed.
On the other hand, the current hidden dangers of local government debt risks have not been eliminated, some industries are at the bottom of the cycle, the risk of debt default of individual enterprises has increased, the risks of small and medium-sized financial institutions are mainly concentrated in several provinces, and the uncertainty of the international financial market has increased.
In the face of the intertwining of old problems and new situations, how to firmly adhere to the bottom line of not having systemic financial risks?
First of all, we must properly handle the risk problems of individual enterprises. At present, the debt default problem of individual real estate enterprises is due to poor management of enterprises, failure to operate prudently according to changes in the market situation, but blind diversification and expansion, resulting in serious deterioration of operating and financial indicators.
It should be noted that the debt default of individual real estate enterprises is a case risk, and the spillover of the financial industry is generally controllable. At present, relevant departments and local governments are carrying out risk disposal and mitigation work in accordance with laws and regulations.
At the same time, we will actively and steadily promote real estate tax legislation and reform, and do a good job in pilot work. As far as the current real estate market is concerned, reasonable capital needs are being met, risks are generally controllable, and the overall trend of healthy development of the real estate market will not change.
To guard the bottom line of safety, we must properly handle the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention.
Entering the second half of the year, the signs of insufficient effective domestic demand have gradually emerged, and the international community is facing the impact of the possible turn in the monetary policy of central banks in developed economies such as the Federal Reserve. In this context, striking a balance between steady growth and risk prevention is a test for the financial sector.
From the data point of view, at the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of 8.3% of the broad money (M2) and the year-on-year growth rate of 10% of the scale of social financing basically matched the nominal economic growth rate; the total amount of credit in the first three quarters grew steadily, and RMB loans increased by 16.72 trillion yuan; in the first half of the year, China's macro leverage ratio was 274.9%, maintaining basic stability, providing financial assistance for consolidating the economic recovery to a good momentum.
This is due to China's adherence to the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, paying attention to flexibility, precision, reasonable and moderate, both to support the real economy, but also not to engage in "flood irrigation".
At present, financial management departments are strengthening international macroeconomic policy coordination to prevent external shocks, while doing a good job in cross-cycle policy design, coordinating financial support for the real economy and preventing risks, enhancing the stability of total credit growth, and ensuring that the economy operates within a reasonable range.
To guard the bottom line of safety, it is necessary to consolidate the responsibilities of all parties and form a joint force.
Preventing financial risks not only requires financial management departments to firmly anchor the cage of the system, but also requires local governments to assume corresponding responsibilities. The tenth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission stressed: It is necessary to implement the same responsibility of the local party and government and consolidate the responsibilities of all parties.
At present, some regional financial risks still exist. The handling and resolution of these risks especially requires local governments to consolidate their responsibilities, prevent local fiscal risks, industry risks, and regional economic risks from shifting to financial risks, focus on improving the local credit environment and financial ecology, and help small and medium-sized financial institutions deepen reform and enhance endogenous power.
Economic prosperity, financial prosperity; financial activity, economic vitality. At present, China's economy has continued to recover steadily, and the financial industry has developed steadily and healthily. China has the ability to keep the bottom line of no systemic financial risks, resolve financial risks with high-quality economic development, and help China's economy move forward steadily with financial vitality.
Ride the wind and waves, sail thousands of miles.
2021 is a year of special importance in the process of China's modernization. In the overall situation of the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation and the major changes in the world that have not occurred in a hundred years, and taking firm steps to build a new development pattern, China's economy is facing many challenges, but the opportunities are even greater.
Under the leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, based on the new development stage, the complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept, the construction of a new development pattern, the promotion of high-quality development, the all-out effort to do their own things, perseverance to achieve our set goals, China's economic ship will certainly be able to go steady and far, and open up a brighter prospect.