The market seems to be a little better this week, because after entering June, the market has risen for two consecutive days, can this market continue? Is the market again at the golden time to dig the bottom?
First review this week's market conditions, the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3212.50 points on Monday and closed at 3230.07 points on Friday, up 0.55%, the ChiNext Index opened at 2229.27 points on Monday and closed at 2233.27 points on Friday, up 0.18%, the Dow Jones Index closed at 33762.76 points on Monday, up 2.02%, and the S&P 500 closed the week at 4282.37 points, up 1.83%, The Nasdaq closed the week at 13,240.77, up 2.04%. From the data point of view, the basic rise of U.S. stocks is about 2%, and the recent trend is very strong, there has been no pullback, A shares last week to deep adjustment, this week such a rise, even repair the market can not be counted, if you have to compare the two markets, I think U.S. stocks are a strong market continues to be optimistic, A shares are a weak market can be given up (after all, everyone's funds are limited).
Take a look at the main performance of the market this week. The situation of funds in and out is as follows: [Note: This is the average increase of the sector, not the increase of the sector index]
From the perspective of market operation this week, the leading sectors with large trading volume are media and entertainment (GF CSI Media ETF Connection C) (111 billion), Internet (314.1 billion), software services (Rongtong CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Thematic Index (LOF) C) (469.1 billion), communication equipment (238.9 billion), IT equipment (145.5 billion), components (Fu Quoc CSI Consumer Electronics Thematic ETF Connection C) (295.5 billion), and the turnover rate is high (10%) The rising sectors above are the Internet (30.65%), software services (17.92%), IT equipment (17.35%), media and entertainment (14.79%), communication equipment (13.38%), advertising packaging (11.69%), the intersection of the two converge in media and entertainment, Internet (Oriental Internet Hybrid), software services, IT equipment, communication equipment (Cathay CSI All Index Communication Equipment ETF Connection C), it can be generally considered that funds have returned to the artificial intelligence track.
The leading sector with a large trading volume is electrical equipment (297 billion), industrial machinery (159.7 billion), the top turnover rate (more than 10%) The leading sector is general machinery (10.11%), industrial machinery (10.01%), the intersection of the two is industrial machinery, due to the recent industrial robot also has a wave of market, I think the capital is flowing out of the concept of industrial robots, after all, it is just concept hype.
From the publicly available capital situation, northbound funds bought 5.020 billion yuan this week, the financing balance (borrowing money to speculate on stocks) was mainly inflow throughout the week, with an inflow of 3.189 billion; the balance of securities lending (selling stocks and shorting) increased by 1.536 billion yuan over last week. On the whole, this week's capital is mainly inflows, of which domestic funds inflow is about 5 billion (last week inflow of about -5 billion), northbound capital inflow of about 5 billion (last week inflow of -18 billion or so), from the data point of view, although this week the capital has returned, but compared with the value of last week's outflow, the value is not an order of magnitude, funds are not obvious inflow, the market appears reverse instead of anti-package, isn't this a normal phenomenon? Now it's not even an anti-bag, and it seems a little early to talk about a rebound.
Some investors will think that last week's market volume was at the 800 billion level, this week's market volume was at the 900 billion level, plus the rise and stop data is good, isn't there new money entering the market? Not really! In other words, the net inflow of new funds is basically negligible. Taking the ChiNext index as an example, this Tuesday hit a new low for the year and then rebounded, if the new funds are entered, there will be no new low of the year on Monday and Tuesday, and a new low means that the funds are out of the market. From the perspective of the whole week, ChiNext belongs to the long and short balance without rising or falling, that is, the bullish funds and the bearish funds are equal in strength, if there are new funds entering the market, the scale of exit funds is comparable, reflected in the index, there will be no rise and no fall.
On the other hand, as of May 29, a total of 25 funds were established, with 20.747 billion shares issued, the lowest since September 2015, according to CaiLian News. Since the fund is a relatively important participant in the A-share market, there are few new market institutions, which can also explain what kind of state the current market is: the market is sluggish and the money-making effect is poor. There is a famous saying in the fund industry: "Good to do is not good to sell, good to sell is not good to do", which means that when the investment value of the fund is high, it is often when the current market is in a bear market, and the mid-line layout opportunity is large, but the market is too sluggish, and it is very difficult for fund companies to raise funds. On the other hand, when the market is very good, it is easy for fund companies to raise funds, but the market is very hot, the value of medium-term investment is not high, and there will even be large losses.
Therefore, it can only be confirmed that the current market belongs to a period of investment downturn, the value of medium-term investment is high, but when the capital returns, when there is an inflection point, there is no data warning, from the perspective of right-hand trading, as long as the opportunity of the sector in which the capital flows is relatively large, other sectors basically have no market.
Before looking ahead to next week's A-shares, let's revisit last week's market view, which was seen like this:
Market pessimism spreads and has not changed, defense is the first priority to preserve the principal, if the flow of funds is found to be more bullish again. Shanghai Composite Index Although the bottoming recovery indicates that there is support, but the MACD high dead cross formed, it is estimated that it will take a while to repair this divergence, and if you are optimistic, you will have to wait for it to stabilize, and next week is mainly defensive. ChiNext index continues to fall under the 5-week line, but do you find that this week is already the 7th week of adjustment? The last adjustment cycle was 7 weeks, the time cycle is almost the same, if there is a rebound, I think there will also be a 7/2=3 week market, so if there is a weekly rebound in the future, it will be better for us to re-do more, of course, it will be exempt from the downward cycle. The direction of the theme, this week's market is mainly based on small-cap stocks with plates, only suitable for the limit death squad, large sector rotation belongs to the day, this rhythm guessed correctly is good, guess wrong will suffer, risk-return ratio is too low, next week if it is still the situation, I think it may be better to take the initiative to wait and see.
From the outlook of last week, there is actually no problem with the defensive strategy, because the main gains in the market are on Friday, even if it is okay to go long now, but from last week's point of view, I did not find the signal of the return of funds. There is no need to revise the view of the Shanghai Composite Index, and it is not meaningful for ChiNext to slightly rise by 0.18% this week, and if it rises by 2-3% like the NASDAQ or Dow, then the situation will be different. In terms of subject matter, even board stocks have weakened in height, and funds have returned to the artificial intelligence sector, but other sectors are still sluggish, which I think can be seen as a structured market.
To sum up, I think next week can be looked out like this:
1. Market pessimism spreads and has not changed, the incremental capital inflow is not obvious, and it is still defensive until the signal of a large inflow of funds is found! (Single-day volume, market rise)
2, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out near the 60-week line, and did not hit a new adjustment low, but the MACD dead cross has become a match, combined with no incremental funds, it may take a while to digest this pressure, even if the index rises, it is estimated that it is only a technical repair of the 5-week line of the counter-pump, willing to do the over-fall rebound can try, but the space is not large, after the counter-draw is in place, it is necessary to decisively leave the market (except for incremental funds).
3. ChiNext index This week's new low after bottoming out to end the weekly line 7 consecutive negative, but compared with the last structural 7 consecutive negative trend, obviously lack of strength, talk about stopping the decline is very reluctant, let alone rebound. If the 5-week line can be recovered next week, then look at the 3-1=2-week rebound, if the 5-week line cannot be recovered, it is still necessary to continue to wait and see until incremental funds appear.
4, the direction of the theme, this week funds obviously flowed into the artificial intelligence track-based sectors, this direction after full adjustment for more than a month, there may be a second wave of the market, other sectors because there is no capital inflow, or quite sluggish. Therefore, next week's market focus is still artificial intelligence, if they are still strong, it is enough to follow the main theme of funds. If incremental funds enter the market in full, consider the direction of the oversold rebound.
Streaming: The market lacks net incremental funds, and it is estimated that it will continue to fluctuate weakly until new funds appear, the main focus of funds in the market is in the direction of artificial intelligence, game opportunities converge in the technology sector, and the non-technology sector is recommended to rest and wait and see before there is no incremental funds.
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Special Notes:
1. The above content is only a personal investment diary, and does not have a guidance function.
2. The views are for reference only, and whether to follow the idea of operation requires investors to judge by themselves.
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