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【Ring time depth】Germany's "turn of the times", thunder is loud and rain is small?

author:Globe.com

Source: Global Times

"Thunder and rain", "mirage", "slow motion", "inconsistency between words and deeds" - some Western media and politicians use these words to describe Germany's ongoing "Zeitenwende" reform. A year ago, on February 27, three days after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, German Chancellor Scholz delivered what was called "one of the most important speeches in modern German history" in the Bundestag. He said Germany now faces a "turning point" and promises an overhaul of its foreign and defense policy. Scholz also declared that the economic power Germany would become a real geopolitical power. What changes has Germany made in policy over the past year? How far is it from becoming a "real geopolitical power"? Will Germany, which has not yet developed a national security strategy, lose its way in reforming it without its strategic goals being clear?

【Ring time depth】Germany's "turn of the times", thunder is loud and rain is small?

Comprehensive reform of foreign and security policy

"Zeitenwende" is not a new word in German. According to the Duden's Great German Dictionary, it refers to "the end of an era and the beginning of a new era". In the 19th century, the term was used by Germans to describe the French Revolution. Since then, the term has appeared in the newspapers many times during the two world wars and the events of 9/11 in the United States. On February 27, 2022, German Chancellor Scholz used the term to describe the "structural shift" of the era and promised a comprehensive overhaul of Berlin's foreign and security policy.

In his speech last February, Scholz announced that Germany would supply weapons to Ukraine, increase defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) and set up a special defense fund of 100 billion euros for the modernization of the Bundeswehr. This is the biggest change in German security policy since the founding of the Bundeswehr in 1955. For historical reasons, Germany has been pursuing a policy of military restraint since World War II, with its defense expenditure as a share of GDP falling from 4.9% in 1963 to 1.4% in 2020, and the Bundeswehr troop strength shrinking from 500,000 in 1990 to around 260,000 in 2022.

In December 2022, Scholz published a signed article entitled "The Turn of the Times: How to Avoid a New Cold War in the Multipolar Era" in the US magazine Foreign Affairs, saying that Germany intends to become a "guarantor of European security", "a bridge builder within the EU" and "an advocate of multilateral solutions to global problems". The German chancellor also said that European security will be maintained by investing in the military, strengthening the European defense industry, strengthening Germany's military presence on NATO's eastern flank and equipping Ukraine's armed forces. For the future, Scholz stressed that Europe must continue to take greater responsibility for its own security and need to move in step to build its defense capabilities.

In terms of foreign policy, Scholz said that the most immediate threat to Germany and its allies comes from Russia. He argued that the U.S. is "commendable" for building and investing in strong partnerships and alliances around the world, but creating a more balanced and resilient transatlantic partnership also requires Germany and Europe to play an active role. Regarding China, the German chancellor referred to his November 2022 trip to China, saying that Germany will continue to work with China to create opportunities for cooperation between companies from both countries. He stressed that China's rise is not a reason to isolate China, nor is it an excuse to restrict cooperation with China.

Chen Yang, executive director of the European Institute of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with the Global Times that Scholz proposed the "turning point of the times" because the world, Europe and Germany all need changes, that is, the world is moving towards multipolarization, and in the past, European integration was to solve internal struggles, and in the future, it is necessary to deal with external influences and defend its own peace, and with the change of the objective situation, Germany should also adjust in security and defense, economy, diplomacy and other aspects. Chen Yang said that after Scholz's speech on the "turn of the times", other European and American media believe that Germany has made a very big change in politics, that is, it is willing to take more responsibilities in the Western alliance and stand at the "forefront" of Europe to draw a line with Russia.

Money is a stumbling block to the defense "turning point"

A year after the "turning point", what changes have occurred in Germany's defense policy and military spending? According to data, Germany's defense spending accounted for 1.44% of GDP in 2022. According to the US "Political News Network", Germany's defense spending this year is about 50 billion euros, accounting for about 1.6% of GDP. The Bundeswehr may also struggle to recruit 30,000 soldiers for NATO to maintain a high level of combat readiness by 2025, as Scholz promised.

According to a report submitted in March by Hogel, the defense commissioner of the German Bundestag, of the 100 billion euros special defense fund set up by Scholz, 30 billion euros will be used to purchase aircraft, military uniforms and other weapons and equipment, including 13 billion euros worth of fighter jets and transport helicopters ordered before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In addition, the German army and navy will receive 16.6 billion euros and 8.8 billion euros respectively, and another 20.8 billion euros will be spent on digitalization. However, the money has not yet been distributed.

"One year after the 'turn of the times': Germany has become an important backing for Ukraine", according to media reports such as "Deutsche Welle", Scholz said in February last year that he would supply weapons to Ukraine, which is the biggest change in German military policy after he proposed the "turn of the times". Initially, Berlin only supplied Kiev with protective helmets, and later supplied heavy weapons such as "weasel" infantry fighting vehicles and "Leopard" tanks. On May 13, 2023, Germany announced that it would supply Ukraine with more than 2.7 billion euros worth of weapons.

Zheng Chunrong, director of the German Research Center at Tongji University, said in an interview with the Global Times that many people within the German government believe that the country's "turning point" is a success, which has made Germany more resilient and risk-resistant in defense, energy and other fields. However, some German politicians, think tanks and media disagree with this assessment, they believe that Germany has "thundered and rained" in defense in the past year or so, only purchased some military equipment, and the combat effectiveness of the Bundeswehr has not improved significantly. The Anglo-American press was very dissatisfied with the speed of the German "turn". The US "Political News Network" said that Washington is slowly realizing that Germany's "turning point" is just a mirage. The Financial Times called Germany's "turnaround" disappointing.

Zheng Chunrong told the Global Times reporter that funding will be the main stumbling block for Germany to achieve a "turning point" in defense. Now Germany is in a technical recession. German GDP fell 0.3% month-on-month in the first quarter of 2023, the second consecutive quarter of decline, according to data released by Statistics Germany's statistics office in May. In addition, the anti-engulfment effect of sanctions against Russia has gradually emerged, with serious inflation in Germany, a sharp increase in the cost of living, and the people are increasingly dissatisfied with the government's mirage in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and constantly hold anti-war marches.

It has "parted ways" with Russia and increased its dependence on the United States

After Scholz proposed the "turn of the times", Germany's policy towards Russia turned significantly. After the end of the Cold War, Germany maintained close cooperation with Russia, especially in the energy sector. Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany's dependence on Russian gas was as high as 55%, and its dependence on oil was as high as 42%. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that lasting peace in Europe can be achieved only with the participation of Russia.

After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Germany began to get rid of its energy dependence on Russia and vigorously develop green energy. According to the latest data from the German Statistical Office, German oil and gas imports from Russia fell by 99.8% year-on-year from February 2022 to February 2023. Merkel's previous policy toward Russia also fell off the altar. Bilateral relations between Germany and Russia have now reached a freezing point, and both sides have recently stepped up their efforts to expel each other's diplomats. Chen Yang believes that Germany and Russia are likely to move towards a parallel world in the future.

Germany, which has "parted ways" with Russia, is becoming more dependent on the United States and NATO. A large part of Scholz's 100 billion euro special defense fund is used to buy American weapons. In 2022, Germany also imported large quantities of LNG from the United States. Chen Yang said that Germany's major policy is now closely following the United States, on the one hand, due to the initiative of the United States, the Biden administration has taken Germany as the focus of its European policy, on the other hand, it is also caused by the objective situation, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has increased Germany's security dependence on the United States. In addition, Germany, in the context of the "turn of the times", wants to be the guardian of Europe and therefore needs more support from the United States.

Relations with China are in a "debugging period"

The development of a new national security strategy is also a top priority for Scholz's "turn of the times". In March 2022, the Federal Foreign Office held a seminar on a national security strategy, proposing the first national security strategy after World War II, and making arrangements for security threats in Europe and Germany's partnership. However, so far, this strategy has not been introduced. According to Deutsche Welle, the strategy will be completed as early as mid-June this year, while the three ruling parties are divided in the areas of arms exports and cybersecurity.

Similarly, Germany's China strategy has not been introduced. Berlin China scholar Wiheelm told the Global Times that the German government hopes to redefine its relations with China through its China strategy under the slogan of "turning the times". On November 16 last year, the German magazine Der Spiegel disclosed a China strategy document drafted by the Foreign Ministry, and a confidential document called "Internal China Policy Guide" by the German Ministry of Economics was also exposed. According to German media reports, German Foreign Minister Baerbock is also preparing his own draft strategy document on China.

German TV reported that the current controversy within the government about the China strategy mainly includes the Taiwan issue and which areas allow Chinese companies to invest. Some analysts said that there are two main reasons for the delay in Germany's China strategy, including the strong differences between the three ruling parties in Germany in terms of China policy, and the different strata and groups in Germany have different interests in relations with China. Zheng Chunrong said that Scholz and his Chancellery should maintain pragmatic cooperation between China and Germany, while emphasizing that competition and institutional confrontation between the two sides are intensifying, while the Greens-dominated Foreign Ministry and Economic Ministries tend to be tougher on China. The struggle between these two factions has been continuing, which is why Germany's China strategy has been difficult to come out. In addition, the German business community has always opposed "decoupling" from China. According to the German newspaper Tagesspiegel, about 1 million jobs in the country depend on exports to China, and more than 5,500 German companies are active in China. The Chinese market is very important for German industry. If it reduces its engagement with China, Germany's economy will also be greatly affected.

Chen Yang told the Global Times reporter that Germany's relations with China are currently in a period of debugging or transition, Berlin on the one hand wants to enjoy the dividends of economic and trade exchanges with China, on the other hand, it wants to distance itself politically from China and maintain the so-called Western characteristics, so Germany adopts the so-called "de-risk" strategy against China, reduces investment dependence on China, and strengthens ties with other countries.

The ultimate question to consider in Berlin

In conjunction with the "turning point", Germany wants to play a greater leadership role in the EU and worldwide, changing the overall image of "economically strong and politically weak". Chen Yang said that Germany is a country that attaches great importance to European integration, and if it rises as a "real geopolitical power", then Berlin will actively promote European defense cooperation and enhance Europe's overall strength, which can offset the negative effects of hegemonism to a certain extent, and then help maintain the world multipolar order. However, "geopolitical power" is only a tool, and more importantly, the choice of Germany's strategic goals. Zheng Chunrong believes that if after the political and military rise, Germany carries out more extraterritorial intervention, including in response to the United States sending more warships to the so-called "Indo-Pacific region" to cruise, then it will inevitably increase the tension in the region and the world.

Blaus, a former German lieutenant general and senior NATO official, gave the government a 3 or 4 out of 10 for the "turn of the times" operation. Bavarian Governor Sodel said the "turning of the times" carried out by the federal government was "slow motion of the times". The dissatisfaction of some people in German political and military circles with the federal government's "turnaround" action reflects the difficulty of the transition from the side.

According to Chen Yang's analysis, in the process of "transformation", Germany has reduced its energy dependence on Russia, which is bound to push up production costs in the long run, thereby weakening economic competitiveness, which is a fatal injury to Germany. If economic development is not good, how to promote the transformation of energy, digitalization and other fields? Second, the United States is both defensive against Germany, and it is unknown how far Germany's "turnaround" can go, and Central and Eastern European countries and France also have a natural fear of Germany's geopolitical rise, and there may be small actions that hinder it. Finally, "geopolitical power" is just a tool, and whether the goals that Germany really wants to achieve and the system it maintains are in line with the trend of world development is the ultimate question that Germany needs to consider.

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