Market analysis as of May 31, 2023
【Short-term trend】CSI 300 Index: downward
National Securities 2000 Index: Upward
【Mid-line trend】CSI 300 Index: downward
National Securities 2000 Index: downward
【Long-term trend】CSI 300 Index: Upward
National Securities 2000 Index: Upward
【Text】
Today, the Shanghai index fell 19 points, the two markets traded 930 billion, and there were 1,800 red markets.
Artificial intelligence, tourism catering led the rise.
Northbound net outflow of 3.8 billion.
Point of view:
1. The broader market: artificial intelligence continues to occupy the C position, and other sectors are short-term.
2. Main line: memory chip, human brain engineering.
Artificial intelligence is rising, and other sectors are dying.
Various underweight news in the evening.
Observe the resistance of tomorrow's underlying stock.
In case the market does not work, the artificial intelligence sector can not resist, and it is necessary to consider the problem of making up for the decline.
A certain NVIDIA faucet put the amount back for two consecutive days, and it was very hard to hold up. If a huge number of escapes tomorrow, whether the other little brothers can hold on is also a question.
Figure 1, All-A weighted index. The flat time is a little long, the amount is not put much, and the new main line does not run out.
Translated back, it is to stop the fall, but the new main line is not strong.
So what to do?
Either the new main line comes out, or look downwards for support.
Figure 2, the return gap between stocks and bonds is once again approaching the historical extreme.
At present, the value performance of stocks and bonds has returned to the historical extreme level of -2x standard deviation, and similar time points are:
️January 2016
️January 2019
️March 2020
️October 2022
This is not a short-term indicator. It can only be said that this situation has occurred in history, and the layout is likely to be rewarded.
But the bottom is light, dare to go against the trend layout after all, a minority.
This is the law of human nature.
Figure 3, Main line observation pool. The CPO withdrew from the list, somewhat unexpectedly. The other two main lines did not improve.
The market loves new themes.
When the new theme does not appear, and the old theme is not powerful.
The only option for short-termers is to wait and see.
Tips: The stock market is very risky, my views are for reference only, please make your own decisions!
Remarks: Short, medium and long lines, corresponding to the slope direction of the 5-day, 5-week, and 5-month lines respectively; CSI 300 and China National Securities 2000 correspond to the style of large and small tickets.
Trading day must change! This is my 1729th original article, welcome to like, follow, and forward.