During the general rise of peripheral stock markets last week, the performance of A-shares today was unsatisfactory, although the broader market trend is strong, but the ChiNext board is still weakening, and hit a new low during the session.
The decline of ChiNext is not dragged down by the adjustment of new energy, but also under the recovery of China Special Valuation and artificial intelligence market, it has caused funds to flow back to the TMT sector, releasing the risk of new energy continuing to dive.
The broader market rises, what signals does the ChiNext fall?
The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets generally fell today, more than 3,300 stocks adjusted after the close, and the number of stocks fell and increased today, obviously, the market sentiment is still cautious. Today's decline sends two signals.
The first signal: the return of strong sectors, the weak pattern of ChiNext is difficult to change.
The entire TMT track from the early stage of the big rise, to the later to the adjustment, and then to the bottom recovery last Friday, the market showed signs of the return of strong sectors.
With the recovery of the TMT track, the new energy of the ChiNext board has dived again, it is clear that the stock market has entered a period of stock capital game, the artificial intelligence industry chain is rising, new energy needs to fall, if the new energy rises, artificial intelligence has begun to fall.
However, compared with artificial intelligence and new energy, the contribution to the rise and fall of the broader market and ChiNext is not much, but the special estimate determines the direction of the broader market, and the new energy determines the direction of the ChiNext, if artificial intelligence continues to rise, obviously, the weak pattern of the ChiNext is difficult to change.
The second signal: the turnover has increased by 100 billion yuan.
After the close, there was a long-lost increase in the turnover, suggesting that some funds began to enter the market. Different from the previous period, the turnover did not increase after the market declined, and the index could only be weak. Today's increase belongs to the optimistic attitude of more funds to the later period.
Then, if the current market continues to increase the volume, the ChiNext board is expected to overshoot and rebound in the near future, but the funds have returned to China Special Estimation and artificial intelligence, if the transaction volume does not reach more than one trillion yuan, obviously, it is not easy to change the current pattern.
The broader market is strong and the ChiNext is weak, releasing two signals, the market is still structural, and the ChiNext has been dragged down and began a process of continuous weakening.
Can it still rise tomorrow?
The author expects that tomorrow will still be a period when the broader market remains strong and the ChiNext continues to be sluggish, because the ChiNext has recently continued to brush new lows, which is close to the lowest point in April 2022, indicating that the adjustment of the ChiNext board is likely to require a process of confirming the previous new lows.
Although the broader market is strong in the short term under the strength of the medium special assessment, but last week the market has broken 3200 points, need to make up for the gap left on May 23 (3250 point area) as soon as possible in the near future, once the gap is not covered in the near future, the trend of this round of the broader market, after a short-term rebound, will again enter the process of rushing back down.
Write at the end
The current problem is that the attitude of incremental funds entering the market is not positive, and the market has not received greater positive news, resulting in the recovery of the peripheral stock market, and the sentiment of A-shares has been less boosted.
The net purchase of funds from the north is also difficult to cause the stock market to rise, and once the funds from the north continue to flow out, the short-term trend will fluctuate sharply.
The market analysis involved in this article is for reference only, not as an investment basis, the stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious!