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Wen 丨Sun Hu's study
Editor丨Sun Hu's study
First, the conclusion of the study
This paper analyzes the interprovincial panel data from 2003 to 2017, and uses the C-D production function to expand the employment model based on previous literature.
Taking the total employment in the service industry as the explanatory variable and artificial intelligence as the explanatory variable, and introducing the interaction term, the hierarchical regression method was used to investigate the impact of the interaction effects of artificial intelligence, service industry structure adjustment and service industry structure adjustment on service industry employment.
According to the different development levels of mainland regions, the sample is divided into eastern, central and western regions for regression analysis, and the impact of artificial intelligence on service industry employment in different regions of the mainland is discussed.
Finally, by comparing the added value composition and employment composition of various industries within the service industry, this paper discusses the employment absorption capacity of various sub-industries within the service industry.
Based on the empirical analysis results, the conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) The impact of artificial intelligence on employment in the service industry in mainland China has a two-way effect, and there is no long-term stable relationship between the actual effect of artificial intelligence on employment substitution effect and compensation effect, and the technological progress brought by artificial intelligence has both positive compensation effect and negative substitution effect on employment in the service industry.
(2) The impact of artificial intelligence on the structural adjustment of the service industry has a positive effect on employment in the service industry.
The joint effect of artificial intelligence and the adjustment of the service industry structure has driven the growth of employment, which means that the structure of the service industry and artificial intelligence promote each other, artificial intelligence provides technical support for the development of emerging industries, which is conducive to enterprises to further increase investment and expand production scale, and the upgrading of the service industry structure continues to promote technological progress and industrial innovation, accelerating the transformation of scientific and technological achievements.
(3) The level of human capital is significantly positively correlated with employment in the service industry, indicating that the improvement of workers' skill level can promote the growth of employment in the service industry.
It reflects that in the process of employment transfer to the service industry, new requirements for the level of human capital are put forward, the emergence of emerging industries and new sectors, the creation of new jobs will be more inclined to medium and high-skilled employees, and the improvement of the human capital level of workers has a promoting effect on the optimization of the employment structure of the service industry.
(4) The impact of artificial intelligence on employment in the service industry has regional differences, the substitution effect on the eastern region is greater than the compensation effect, the compensation effect on the central region is greater than the destructive effect, and the impact on the western region is not obvious, while the interaction between artificial intelligence and the structural adjustment of the service industry has a significant promoting effect on the western region.
From the perspective of the eastern region, economic growth, the improvement of human capital level, the structural adjustment of the service industry, and the interaction between artificial intelligence and the structural adjustment of the service industry have a pulling effect on employment in the eastern region, while artificial intelligence alone hinders the employment growth of the service industry in the eastern region.
In the central region, the interaction between artificial intelligence, urbanization level, human capital level improvement, foreign direct investment, artificial intelligence and service industry restructuring has a positive effect on employment.
From the perspective of the western region, the interaction effects of urbanization level, human capital level, foreign direct investment, artificial intelligence and service industry structure adjustment have a significant positive effect on employment in the western region.
(5) The ability of traditional service industries to absorb employment continues to weaken, and modern service industries have become the main force for employment absorption.
The actual benefits of traditional industries have decreased, the proportion of added value has decreased year by year, and workers in traditional industries are facing the risk of being laid off, and their income and living standards have declined.
At the same time, the compensation effect of artificial intelligence is more reflected in the growing ability to absorb employment in modern service industries such as finance and insurance.
The wide application of artificial intelligence has changed the industrial structure of the service industry and the skill structure of the labor structure, enterprises will increase the demand for skilled and knowledge-based workers, the rapid development of the modern service industry, and the space for absorbing employment continues to grow.
2. Policy recommendations
Based on the research in this paper and the actual situation in the mainland, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions that are conducive to coping with the impact of artificial intelligence and steadily increasing employment:
(1) Enterprises continue to strengthen scientific and technological research and development, actively develop the "artificial intelligence +" industry, improve the efficiency of resource allocation, and develop a modern service industry with strong employability.
Continuously improve production efficiency, expand industrial scale, so as to provide more jobs.
Give full play to the "compensation effect" of artificial intelligence on employment as much as possible, guide social capital into the core links of artificial intelligence production, encourage the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, increase employment, and alleviate employment pressure.
(2) Strengthen investment in vocational training and education for employed persons.
Encourage enterprises to increase the proportion of investment in human capital, improve employment matching, and minimize the negative effects of structural unemployment on overall unemployment; Increase investment in education, establish innovation and entrepreneurship bases, adjust professional catalogs in a timely manner, establish an intelligent discipline system, actively cultivate high-skilled and knowledge-based talents, and meet the needs of the labor market.
At the same time, improve the unemployment benefit security system, fully cover unemployment insurance, ensure the basic livelihood of the unemployed, and give play to the role of government policies; Improve the reemployment training system, carry out a variety of skills training for job transfer, and provide targeted re-employment training for the unemployed, so as to improve the re-employment ability of the unemployed
(3) Guide the coordinated development of service industry employment regions, and optimize the spatial layout of service industry employment absorption.
To further enhance the economic resource advantages of the eastern region, we should further guide the accelerated flow of technical resources and other employment factors to the central and western regions, so as to realize the optimization and coordination of the allocation of intelligent production resources between regions.
Improve the degree of application of artificial intelligence in some economically backward areas, give play to the compensatory role of artificial intelligence in employment in the service industry, and promote the coordinated growth of the total employment of the national service industry and the coordinated optimization of the employment structure of the service industry.
(4) Actively develop the modern service industry.
Formulate targeted policies and measures to support the development of emerging service industries, focus on the development of modern service industries, and improve the ability of modern service industries to absorb employment.
Promote the construction of information infrastructure in the service industry and promote Internet innovation business; Gradually improve relevant policies for the financial industry, balance the balance between supply and demand in the real estate industry, and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry; Give full play to the leading and supporting role of scientific research and technical service industries in the service industry, cultivate and attract high-end technical talents, and improve overall labor efficiency.
At the same time, standardize and upgrade traditional service industries, help traditional service industries with strong employment ability such as wholesale and retail trade, strictly regulate relevant industry standards, improve overall service quality, and promote the intelligent and modern upgrading of traditional industries.
summary
The substitution effect and compensation effect of artificial intelligence have triggered major changes in economic structure and production and lifestyle, and also brought many social problems, and people are worried that the large-scale application of artificial intelligence will replace jobs and cause a certain scale of unemployment.
At present, the mainland is in a critical period of rapid development of artificial intelligence, under the impact of the new crown epidemic, employment and other social contradictions are prominent, studying the internal mechanism of artificial intelligence on the employment effect of the service industry is helpful to scientifically judge the employment status, problems and development trends of the service industry in the mainland.
Prepare in advance for the possible negative impact of artificial intelligence on employment and society in the mainland service industry, and provide a certain reference basis for the mainland government to promote employment in the service industry, optimize the structure of the service industry, and alleviate social contradictions and formulate policies.
Based on the above background, based on "Kuznets' law", "service economy theory" and other related theories, taking the mainland interprovincial panel data from 2003 to 2017 as the sample, and based on the C-D production function, this paper expands and establishes multiple models, tests the impact of artificial intelligence, service industry structure adjustment, artificial intelligence and service industry structural adjustment on service industry employment and other factors, and empirically analyzes and verifies the hypothesis through interaction effect model.
In addition, due to the unbalanced economic development of the mainland and the impact of artificial intelligence on the employment of the service industry in different regions of the mainland, this paper divides the sample data according to regions and conducts regression analysis for the eastern, central and western regions.
Finally, by calculating the proportion of added value and employment proportion of various industries in the mainland service industry, the development trend of the internal employment structure of the service industry and the absorption potential of different industries for labor are discussed.
According to the empirical research results of this paper, the results show that: (1) artificial intelligence has a two-way effect on the employment of the overall service industry in the mainland; (2) The upgrading of the structure of the service industry will further enhance the absorption capacity of employment in the service industry; (3) the improvement of workers' skill levels can promote the growth of employment in the service sector; (4) the impact of AI on employment in the service sector is heterogeneous; (5) Artificial intelligence affects the employment structure of the service industry in the mainland, and the proportion of employment in the traditional service industry is declining, while the modern service industry is rising.
In the future, there is still a lot of room for growth in the employment composition of the modern service industry, and there is still great potential for labor employment in these industries in the future.
At the end of this paper, based on the research results and the actual situation in the mainland, the following policy suggestions are put forward:
(1) Enterprises continue to increase investment in scientific and technological research and development to improve production efficiency;
(2) Strengthen investment in vocational training and education for employed persons, and improve the unemployment security mechanism and reemployment service system;
(3) Scientifically plan the spatial layout of the service industry and guide the coordinated development of the service industry in the eastern, central and western regions.
(4) Actively develop modern service industries;
The innovations of this paper are as follows: First, based on many previous theoretical studies, an empirical analysis framework is constructed, and the hierarchical regression method is introduced to expand the employment model to study the impact of artificial intelligence on employment in the mainland service industry.
The second is to focus on the regional heterogeneity of artificial intelligence and the impact of different sub-sectors of the service industry, and specifically and systematically study the regional heterogeneity and industry heterogeneity of artificial intelligence on employment in the service industry, which provides a reasonable and feasible reference for the government to formulate employment policies to a certain extent.
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