Author / Avocado under the stars
Editor/Spinach Starfield
Typesetting/sandwiches under the stars
Musk, spoke up again.
On May 17, at Tesla's shareholder meeting, "Silicon Valley adventurer" Musk said that humanoid robots are Tesla's main long-term source of value in the future. And he speculates that the demand for humanoid robots will far exceed that of cars, reaching 10 billion units.
Musk's roar, the entire stock market shook. The embodied intelligence concept of "robot + AI" has suddenly become a new favorite of the capital market. The entire A-share market can be said to rise on the edge, and Yuanda Intelligent (002689) is one of them.
As of May 24, 2023
Speaking of embodied intelligence, it is actually different forms of robots. In terms of end use, it is no different from a humanoid robot. Unlike ChatGPT, embodied intelligence combines software and hardware to perform a variety of tasks in a real physical environment, truly realizing "robot + AI".
So, Yuanda Intelligence, an elevator manufacturer, is "which side" is involved?
First, the operating income is deteriorating
Yuanda Intelligent was established in 2001 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2012. At present, the company's business mainly involves two parts of elevator products and services. On the product side, mainly R & D, production and sales of passenger elevators, escalators, moving walks and accessories; The service side is mainly installation and maintenance (daily maintenance).
According to the financial report, in 2022, the company will achieve revenue of about 988 million yuan. Among them, the revenue generated by the elevator and elevator business accounted for about 75.74%; Installation and maintenance accounted for about 16.06%, and other businesses accounted for about 8.2%. After all, Yuanda Intelligent is an authentic elevator manufacturing company.
Source: Company Financial Report
The data shows that since 2015, the revenue of Yuanda Intelligent has been declining. In 2019, it fell off a cliff and has been slumping since then.
Source: Flush iFinD
The author believes that the main reasons are as follows:
Affected by the epidemic, demand has decreased. Yuanda intelligent elevator and other products are widely used in residential buildings, shopping malls, hotels, villas and public facilities. In the face of the impact of the epidemic, the consumption of application scenarios has decreased. In other words, shopping malls and hotels are not visited, do you need new elevators? Do you still need repairs and maintenance?
The real estate sector is weak and not sufficiently driven. The new elevator business is closely related to real estate, and both prosperity and loss are lost. In recent years, the macro tone has been "houses are for living, not speculation", coupled with the fact that consumers are adhering to the principle that "cash is king". Developer confidence is low, and development investment is declining. Data show that in 2022, the national commercial housing sales will be 13.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.7%. If no one builds a house, where do you need an elevator?
Product competitiveness is insufficient. With the continuous popularization of the Internet of Things, intelligence and automation are the inevitable trend of the entire elevator industry. Broad Intelligence, which is mainly based on the traditional elevator business, urgently needs transformation and upgrading.
Second, losing money for years and eating old capital
Not only is there less business, but it is also less and less profitable. In 2022, global inflation is under high pressure and costs are rising, and the gross profit margin of Yuanda Intelligent has fallen to 20%.
Source: Flush iFinD
In addition, downstream real estate enterprises continue to be sluggish in the short term, on the one hand, Yuanda Intelligent large-amount accounts receivable collection is difficult, on the other hand, inventory is facing a decline in price. In 2022, the Company made a provision for bad debts of approximately $37 million and a reserve for inventory price declines of approximately $10.55 million. The impairment of large assets is undoubtedly worse for the declining gross profit margin. Under the double whammy, the net profit of Yuanda Intelligent in 2022 will be a huge loss of 111 million yuan, and the loss amount is about 4 times that of 2021.
Source: Company Announcement (April 27, 2023)
In fact, the loss has lasted for a long time. The change of Yuanda Intelligence's "undistributed profit" shows its early growth on the one hand, but also reveals its late decline. Before 2017, Yuanda Intelligent continued to carry out primitive accumulation, and the family base was getting thicker and thicker. After 2018, the scenery is no longer good, and it begins to eat the old book. Until 2022, the accumulation of the previous year was completely defeated, and the family turned from positive to negative.
Source: Flush iFinD
Third, the outlet business, production and sales are zero
Such an unbearable performance can also be paid attention to by the market again, relying on the robot business of Yuanda Intelligence.
In 2015, Yuanda Intelligent invested 30 million yuan to establish Shenyang Yuanda Intelligent High-tech Robot Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Hi-Tech Robot). Specifically, Hi-Tech Robot is mainly engaged in the development, manufacturing, sales, transfer, maintenance and technical services of industrial robots, service robots, intelligent robots and related automation equipment.
In order to make up for the gap in the domestic high-end robot market, high-tech robots will focus on high-end applications such as high-speed rail, aerospace, shipbuilding and e-commerce logistics, trying to shorten the technological gap with well-known foreign manufacturers in these fields, and gradually realize independent innovation in these fields.
In this regard, the author can only say that the ideal is very full, and the reality is very slap in the face.
The data shows that since the establishment of high-tech robots, only 2018-2021 has generated revenue, with a total amount of less than 60 million yuan. In 2022, affected by the economic downturn, customer fixed asset investment will slow down, and the robot business will directly return to zero.
Source: Flush iFinD (operating income)
Looking at profits, from 2018 to 2021, the profit contribution of the robot business was only about 10 million yuan. It's a drop in the bucket for the company's continued losses.
Source: Flush iFinD (Māori)
Not only is the business not profitable, the robot business is constantly burning money. According to the financial report, in 2022, the net loss of high-tech robots will reach 20.17 million yuan. Yuanda Intelligent invested 30 million yuan, and there is not much left at this moment.
Source: Company financial reports
With the development of the times, the author believes that robots are definitely a good story, but this does not mean that anyone who stands on the cusp can fly.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm without buying and selling.