preface
Born in 1889, Ishihara was an out-and-out advocate of militarism, who believed in the "Nichiren religion" and was the backbone of the "Ichiyokai", who planned the "September 18 Incident".
Ishihara Wan'er
He was known as one of the few "clear-headed people" in Japan during World War II. On the one hand, he had an extraordinary obsession with invading China, because according to his vision, World War II would be a confrontation between Japan and the United States, and Japan, as a "small country", wanted to defeat the United States as a "big country", and it had to strengthen itself before the war began, and the only way to strengthen itself was to invade China.
On the other hand, he retained absolute sanity, and he refused a large-scale all-out invasion of China, because it would drag Japan, which was not fully prepared, into the quagmire of war, and he believed that the most suitable way for Japan was "moderate" invasion of China, that is, "encroachment".
Based on these considerations, Ishihara's estimated full-scale invasion of China should be 1956.
Why didn't history follow the trajectory set by Ishihara? Let's take a closer look:
The infamous "Ishihara Idea"
In 1915, Ishihara was admitted to the Japanese Army University, where he studied for three years and graduated with the second place. Beginning in 1920, Ishihara began surveying the terrain and spying intelligence in China, and went to Germany to study military history. In October 1928, Ishihara was transferred to the staff of the Kwantung Army. After this circle of experience, Ishihara put forward his own proposition, that is, the infamous "Ishihara idea":
Invading Japanese army
1. Human civilization originating in Central Asia is divided into two branches, east and west, after years of development, the two civilizations have confronted each other across the Pacific Ocean, and they will merge for a long time, and the two civilizations will definitely move towards unification through war, and World War II will definitely break out (the First World War is more like a civil war in Europe, not a world-wide war).
2. World War II will be fought centered on Japan and the United States, which is a giant and wants to fight with the United States, Japan must obtain sufficient reserves and strategic depth by conquering China.
3. To conquer China, it is necessary to first occupy Manchuria and Mongolia.
4. A full-scale invasion of China will plunge Japan into the quagmire of war and will be unable to extricate itself, and it must gradually occupy China.
Putting aside national feelings, I have to say that Ishihara has two brushes, and his set of theories is an accurate study and judgment of the current situation and situation at that time, and it is the war strategy that is most in line with Japan's national conditions.
First, Japan was small, weak in succession, and lacked the foundation to fight long-term wars, and was only suitable for fighting small-scale local wars.
Second, from the perspective of the subsequent war situation in Japan, the army's "northbound strategy" failed with the disastrous defeat at the Battle of Nomenkan, and the navy's "southbound strategy" suffered oil and steel supply cuts and embargoes because it touched the interests of the United States, and finally forced Japan to take a desperate step to attack Pearl Harbor, and finally dragged itself into the quagmire of war and declared its defeat in advance.
The successive failures of going north and south further confirmed that Ishihara's vision was correct. Japan does not have the ability and potential to invade China in an all-round way, so it can only adopt the method of "encroachment", step by step, occupy one place and painstakingly operate, and then occupy the next place when the conditions are ripe.
The advance of the "Ishihara Idea"
On July 7, 1937, under the pretext of the disappearance of a soldier, the Japanese army brazenly attacked Wanping County, and the "July Seven Incident" broke out, and Japan began a full-scale invasion of China. This is nearly two decades ahead of Ishihara's vision.
The Japanese invading army was massacring Chinese
Why didn't history move according to the "Ishihara Vision"? The reasons are manifold:
First, the non-resistance of the Northeast Army in the "918 Incident" emboldened Japan. At that time, the Japanese army could dispatch less than 700 people, while the Beida Camp had 8,000 troops of the Northeast Army. The final result surprised Ishihara Guan'er, and the Northeast Army chose not to resist, did not fire a shot, and surrendered the northeast to Japan. Ishihara was overjoyed, and Japan had a deeper understanding of China, all the original worries and concerns were gone, the Japanese began to believe that as long as they moved, China would give in, so Japan's boldness became more and more, occupying the northeast and thinking about North China, thinking that North China could not forget the whole of China, originally only wanted to fight a local war, but it quickly evolved into a full-scale war.
Second, Japan, which occupied the northeast, greatly increased its strength and had the confidence to expand the war. Tohoku surrendered without a fight, and Japan's confidence increased greatly. According to incomplete statistics, the northeast is rich in mineral resources, vast and fertile land, the most ideal strategic base, in 1937 Tohoku produced half of Japan's steel, northeast also has a large amount of grain, coal, wood, which ensures the operation of the entire Japanese war machine. In fact, this is also the most critical reason why Ishihara Guan'er planned the "918 Incident" to invade and occupy northeast China, and it is also the core essence of the "Ishihara Concept", gradually strengthening its own strength through encroachment to meet the final decisive battle. It's a bit like when you play the game "Eat Chicken", the "dog" goes to the end, picks up a piece of equipment, and makes a splash in the final decisive battle. But what Ishihara did not expect was that after this first victory, the last trace of rationality in the army was also diluted, and everyone felt that Japan was strong enough to do whatever it wanted, and everything began to become fanatical and disorderly again.
Third, Japan is engulfed in fanatical radicals, and Ishihara's theories are unattractive in their eyes. After the 918 incident, Ishihara was awarded the rank of lieutenant general, which caused an uproar among Japanese middle and lower-ranking officers, all of whom wanted to find an opportunity to gamble and become heroes like Ishihara. Frenzy began to spread, and everything began to become irrational. Under these circumstances, Ishihara's so-called "gradual occupation" strategy began to become unattractive, Japanese officers began to light fires everywhere, the front was stretched out in an arbitrary manner, and a group of Ishihara supporters were doing what Ishihara was opposing, which constituted a major spectacle of the time.
Under the influence of these three factors, things began to become out of Japan's control.
If history really developed according to the "Ishihara vision", what would be the ending?
Some people say that it is not good for China, because the gap between China and Japan at that time is obvious, and as time goes by, China that has not yet achieved national independence will inevitably be pulled further by Japan, and the generation gap in military technology will definitely make China lose even worse.
Invading Japanese army
Some people also say that it is beneficial to China, because with the development of the current situation, by 1956 the European battlefield may have been divided into victories and defeats, the United States and the Soviet Union will intervene in the situation in Northeast Asia without worries, Japan has no competitiveness in the face of the United States and the Soviet Union, and China may take advantage of this gap to achieve national independence.
Actually, to a certain extent, I agree with the second statement. Because the war was postponed, because the United States and the Soviet Union, after cleaning up the Nazis, would never allow another militaristic hegemony to emerge in East Asia.
But I can't agree with the second statement in its entirety, because China's national independence can only rely on itself, and any national independence that hopes for external forces will not achieve good results. The United States and the Soviet Union may not allow Japan to run amok in East Asia, but they will not necessarily allow China to develop freely, and they are likely to intervene and seize spheres of influence, so that China will never have the opportunity to develop independently. China may then face a situation where it luckily escapes a vicious wolf, only to find that a lion and a tiger have broken into the house and are eventually eaten.
History has no way to make assumptions, but looking at the entire process of aggression against China, no matter from various angles, it is basically impossible for Japan to completely conquer China, because the will of the Chinese people to defend the country is too strong, making up for the gap in military strength. China's victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression depended on the struggle of the Chinese people themselves, and the struggle and sacrifice of all Chinese in the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression deserve to be remembered forever by each and every one of us, and no matter when Japan invades China in various ways, it will certainly fail.