Text: Zhang Yu, Assistant Director and Chief Macro Analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute (License No.: S0360518090001)
Contact: Lu Yinbo (15210860866)
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【Chief Trend Judgment】
20230404- How to assess the height of the current economy?
20230329 - Small Risks - Overseas banks and liquidity 50 charts full tracking
20230321 - Docking with high-standard economic and trade rules is also a reform momentum that needs attention
20230314-Looking for the optimal time - summer and autumn are better than spring and winter 20230311-7 relationships between financial data and economic and asset allocation-February financial data commentary 20230306 There are also "exceeding expectations" in the dull-2023 government work report minimalist interpretation 20230221 holographic major projects: multi-dimensional exploration investment in 20230209-2022, is the residents' balance sheet really damaged? 20230208 - "Sinking consumption": what is the logic of support? 20230201 of the Consumption Recovery Series-When will the U.S. economy fall into recession? How big is the recession? On the Recession Series 2 20230128 - China QE: Who is expanding the table "unconventionally"? 20230108 - An interesting indicator to look at the current stock 20221223 - does leverage necessarily lead to higher interest rates? 20221218-Everything revolves around "boosting confidence"-Simplified interpretation of the Central Economic Work Conference 20221212-Rethinking the Russia-Ukraine conflict from the perspective of the evolution of the global crude oil pattern 20221207 - one "less", one "change", one "more" - five-sentence minimalist interpretation of the December Politburo meeting 20221118-Multi-dimensional hybrid state of monetary policy-Comments on the third quarter of 2022 monetary policy implementation report 20221114 - "No" pole, "Thailand" has not arrived, Restlessness 20221104 - credit expansion from "automatic" to "manual" 20221027 - "reasonable equilibrium"≠ absolute exchange rate appreciation (depreciation) value 20221025 - death and rebirth - from the global hyperinflation case to see the 20221014 of policy choices and asset trends - when will US inflation see the "dawn of victory"? 20220906 - All-round thinking about the operation of exchange rates
20220902-Three signals of the weakening of residents' "real estate complex"20220816-Economic difference, loose currency, stocks and bonds biased towards "long-term" - July economic data commentary 20220729 - seeking truth from facts, plain is true-Finding answers to market problems&Nine Angles Minimalist Interpretation of Politburo Meeting 20220715-External Turmoil and Internal Security: Slope, Height, Structure, Change Inventory - June Economic Data Review 20220713-Inflation "Wide" has reached 1980—— Another perspective of US inflation 20220706 - interest rate inflection point? ——Don't talk about qualitative, just talk about quantitative & five major models to look at interest rate pricing 20220629-Hundred Cities Consumption Review-Four paths and enlightenment for repair-20220612 The dilemma of the United States-The demand for "wrongful killing" must be tearful 20220527-The big year of technological reform-The four major kinetic energy has been possessed 20220520-When buying a house can't run away from buying financial management, is 15bpLPR enough? ——Solving the Case "Stable Growth" Series 14 20220514-Interest Rate Hike Trading Syllogism Opens the Second Paragraph-US April CPI Data Review 20220430-Six Sentences Minimally Interpreting the Politburo Meeting and Large-scale Asset Allocation 20220426-The Central Bank Makes a Move, Exchange Rate Policy or Enters an Intensive Observation Period - Foreign Exchange 20220424-How to Understand Recent Exchange Rate Changes? 20220408-Stable growth, interest rate spread, oil prices, epidemic - thinking on key issues in current investment 20220306-Six sentences of a very concise summary, five perspectives to expand in detail - 2022 government report interpretation
【Domestic Fundamentals】
20230331-Exceeding expectations, look at 10 details - March PMI data commentary 20230327-Profit growth rate or bottomed out - January-February industrial enterprise profit commentary 20230316 - Is the economic adaptation to the 5% target at the beginning of the year? ——Review of economic data from January to February
20230303 - On the way to recovery, downside risks are low, and there is still upward momentum - January-February economic data outlook
20230301-Two indicators to see the necessity of continuing to "expand domestic demand" - February PMI data review
20230201 - Modest start - January PMI data review
20230201- What will be the pace of profit this year? ——Profit review of industrial enterprises in December
20230118-Review of 36 indicators in the three years of the epidemic: what is the current situation of each link? December's economic data review
20230104-GDP reading may not be enough to reflect the extent of demand contraction - December economic data outlook
20230101 - Stable growth needs to solve a series of problems - December PMI data review
【Finance】
20230318-RRR cut: a tool to regulate liquidity – comments on the central bank's RRR cut on March 27, 2023
20230314 - Quantitatively measure the possible impact of early repayment by residents
20230225-Monetary Policy: "Quality" is more important than "quantity"——Interpretation of the 2022 Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report
20230220-2022 Credit Flow Industry Map
20230211 - Three questions about financial data in the opening year - January financial data review
20230111-Social finance "darkest moment", interest rate cut "eagerly awaited" - December financial data review
【Overseas】
20230324-Factor Investment and Machine Learning and Performance Attribution——Overseas Papers Biweekly Report No. 15
20230323 - The Fed's conundrum is the asymmetry of interest rate sensitivity - March FOMC meeting commentary
20230317- How long can the US save excess last? ——Overseas Biweekly Report No. 2
20230316- Will large fluctuations in market expectations affect the pace of Fed rate hikes? ——Review of US CPI data for February
20230312-Hourly wage growth pressures on inflation have not eased - February non-farm payrolls review
20230311 - What policy changes may the new BOJ governor bring? ——Commentary on the March central bank's monetary policy meeting
20230302 - What does history tell us about disinflation? ——Overseas Papers Biweekly No. 14
20230227-What is the driving force behind high inflation in Europe, Japan and South Korea? ——The first issue of the new overseas biweekly newspaper
20230213- Is the US job market really so tight? ——Overseas Papers Biweekly No. 13
20230216 - Is it the same as the third quarter of 2022? ——Review of US CPI data for January
20230204 - Japan's "Lost Decade" and Household Consumption: Overseas Essay Biweekly No. 12
20230203-U.S. stocks "rushed" to turn, wary of follow-up risks - February FOMC meeting commentary
20230114-US inflation: oil, housing, business has eased, "people" tight is the key - December US CPI data review
20230109-Strong employment + slowing wages≠ soft landing can be expected - December non-farm payrolls data review
20221215- When do the market expect the major central bank rate hike cycle to peak? ——Review of the December FOMC meeting
20221030 - A New Era of Global Energy Inflation: Overseas Papers Biweekly No. 11
20221214 - Let the bullets fly a little longer - a review of the US CPI data for November
【Policy Tracking Series】
20230406-How does Zhejiang build a common prosperity demonstration zone? - Policy Watch Biweekly Bulletin, No. 55
20230326 - Focus on Hainan Free Trade Port: Review of the Implementation of Ten Major Events - Weekly Economic Watch Issue 12
20230307-How to change the institutional reform of the State Council? - Weekly Economic Watch No. 9
20230307 - Consolidating the Foundation for Science and Technology and Industrial Self-reliance and Self-Improvement - Policy Watch Biweekly Report No. 53
20230219-What is the action to increase the production capacity of 100 billion catties? - Weekly Economic Watch No. 7
20230217 - 10 new formulations of Central Document No. 1 - Policy Watch Biweekly Bulletin No. 52
20230207 - Five highlights of the local two sessions
What are the "major events" at home and abroad in 20230206-2023? - Weekly Economic Watch No. 5
20230204-15 keywords: look at the work arrangement of ministries and commissions for the New Year
20230131-What policies are worth paying attention to during the Spring Festival holiday? - Policy Watch Biweekly Report No. 51
20230118-What are the important information in the ministerial interview? - Policy Watch Biweekly Bulletin, No. 50
20230115 - Meeting of heads of local SASAC: three-year comparison, three changes
20230103 - Boost confidence" What are the grips? - Policy Watch Biweekly Bulletin, No. 49
【Annual Report & Semi-Annual Report Series】
20221227-Mobile Target Era: Shooting at the Same Time: Aiming at the Same Time - Macro 2023 Annual Strategy Report
20220516 - Visible Hand Breakthrough, Sino-US Landscape Swap - 2022 Interim Strategy Report
20211115 - Steady growth of winning oneself and winning the other - macro strategy outlook for 2022
20210510 - Melancholy after reaching the summit - 2021 Interim Strategy Report
20201123-2021: Homecoming – Annual Macro Strategy Outlook
20200625 - Economic Recovery under the Microscopy – Medium-Term Strategy for 2020
20191111 - Stepping on the edge and holding a shield and striking the spear - 2020 Annual Strategy Report
20181126-Comeers can be chased - macro 2019 annual strategy
【Investment Navigator Series】
20220815-When macro can land, 2022 version - 16 hours thousand pages PPT invitation!
20210909-Index System of China's Political and Economic System and Large-scale Asset Allocation——2021 Training Series I
20210910- How do old bottles produce new wine? 200-page PPT detailed analysis framework of China's macroeconomic characteristics - 2021 training series two
20210911 - Commonalities and Differences in Inflation Analysis Frameworks in China and the United States: 2021 Training Series III
20210912 - Thoughts on Mobility – 2021 Training Series IV
20210913 - Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure ABC - 2021 Training Series V
20210914 - A Framework for Overseas Research: Those "Lights" in the Global Data Blind Sea – 2021 Training Series VI
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