Core ideas
1. Due to the large scale of the locust plague, the strong fertility of African locusts, and the difficulty of completely removing eggs, although the Indian government claims that the current locust plague has basically ended, the future continuing impact cannot be ignored.
2. Due to the relatively high proportion of india and Pakistan, although the locust plague does not have a direct impact on sugarcane and cotton at present, it has a greater potential impact in the future.
3. Due to the greater impact on global trade and stocks, locust plagues have a greater direct impact on rapeseed (oil) and international wheat prices.
4. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to varieties such as oil, rapeseed meal, cotton and sugar.
1. Overview of locusts and review of historical locust plagues
1.1 Locust Overview
Commonly known as "grasshopper", in China there are 3 kinds of East Asian locusts, Asian locusts and Tibetan locusts, of which the East Asian locusts have the widest distribution range in China, the most serious harm, is the most important locust species causing locust plague in China, the main harm to grass plants (corn, rice, wheat, sorghum sugarcane), is an agricultural pest. The solitary locusts have a mild personality and are not harmful, but the gathering locusts are aggressive and their appetite is greatly increased. The cause of the gathering is on the one hand, the dry climate, and on the other hand, the lack of food.
Several important locust species in the world include: African desert locust (African desert areas), African flying locust (Africa), East Asian flying locust (Southeast Asia), striped locust (East Africa), brown locust (South Africa) and so on.
The desert locust is considered the most destructive migratory pest in the world. Under the stimulation of the external environment, the locust swarm formed by such locusts has a large density and strong mobility. In addition, they consume the equivalent of their own body weight every day, and their target foods are food crops and vegetation.
1.1 1 The main characteristics of the African desert locust
1.1 2 Objective conditions for the outbreak of locust infestations in Africa
1. Egg-laying stage:
Abundant rainfall, warm soil, and dense vegetation all provide the best breeding conditions for locusts. For example, the Arabian Peninsula was hit by two hurricanes in 2018, and this heavy rainfall helped vegetation grow and also helped young eggs implant.
2. Larval stage:
Warm climate, dense vegetation is still a necessity. Newly hatched nymphs will immediately begin to feed, and if they are living in groups, they will be attracted to other nymphs, and they will gather into a large swarm. Desert locust nymphs will undergo 5 shell changes before becoming adults. Immature individuals in the adult phase form bands that feed and move in the form of endolytic units. The adult stage may be completed within two to four weeks when food supply and climatic conditions are appropriate, but it may be up to six months old if environmental conditions are not ideal.
3. Maturity:
The transition from harmless individual insects to starving social insects usually occurs during dry periods. Mature locusts like to be warm and dry, and China has said since ancient times that "drought poles and locusts" and "long drought will have locusts". According to Deng Yunte's "History of China's Rescue of The Wasteland", the locust plague in the Qin and Han Dynasties averaged once every 8.8 years, the two Song Dynasties were 3.5 years, the Yuan Dynasty was 1.6 years, and the Ming and Qing dynasties were both 2.8 years, and the scope and degree of disasters were the highest in the world. However, the chinese locust species are different, and most of them are "flying locusts" when locust plagues occur.
1.1 3 The course of this outbreak of locust plagues in Africa
This 70-year locust plague, the number of locusts is huge, the flight distance is long, the migration speed is fast, the current estimated number of locusts is 300-400 billion. The locust outbreak actually began two years ago, when several large-scale cyclones occurred in the Northern Indian Ocean between May and October 2018, bringing wet weather to the southern Arabian Peninsula. In general, moist soil is more conducive to locust spawning, and in the case of environmental matters, the eggs can basically grow smoothly, and the growth period is only 2 months, which also makes the locust breed for 3 generations and uncontrolled in the 9 months from June 2018 to March 2019, so that the locust population base has been greatly improved. Subsequently, between February and June, the breeding of locust populations in most of these areas was further accelerated due to the overall failure of control in Iran and Yemen. Subsequently, with Iran and Yemen as the center of the two major regions, two branches were formed, and the Yemeni region as a community invaded Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and other northeast African regions known as the "Horn of Africa", while the Iranian settlement began to gradually invade the borders of India and Pakistan, thus forming an encirclement of the entire Arabian Sea and the northern Indian Ocean region.
1.2 Historical Locust Plague Review
According to fao statistics on historical locust plagues, the plague (highest) level in the twentieth century included six desert locust plagues in the twentieth century, including 1912-1919, 1926-1934, 1940-1948, 1949-1963, 1967-1969, 1986-1989, the longest of which lasted for 13 years, affected an area of about 29 million square kilometers, and could be extended to 58 countries. In the twenty-first century, only the 2003-2005 locust plague in Africa reached the highest level (this year's scale or similar), and the most recent years of the second high level of disaster were 1992-1994, 1996-1998 and 2003. The following are the major international locust plagues in the past 20 years:
China has a long history of fighting locust plagues, and researchers have also specially sorted out the areas where locusts have occurred in China. In fact, there have been desert locusts in China for a long time, but they are scattered. In 1982, the desert locust was found in Tibet, China. Desert locusts can really be divided into two types: social and scattered, not only the difference in residential personality, but also many differences in their own lives, so the desert locusts in Tibet have not formed a scale.
It is mainly concentrated in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, especially in hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces. South of central China, the locust plague is decreasing; on the southeast coast, there is almost none. Therefore, in the four provinces of Fujian, Taiwan, Guangdong and Guangxi, there is no temple of eight waxes or the temple of General Liu Meng. Therefore, taking history as a mirror, this time the desert locust is likely to stay in the original area and will not enter China. The locust plagues that have occurred in China's history are mainly East Asian locusts, Asian locusts, and Tibetan locusts.
The impact of the African locust on the countries concerned
2.1 The African Locust Flight Route
As shown in the figure below, the current locust impact area is mainly concentrated along the Arab Sea, except for mauritania and Morocco, where locusts have been reported, the overall impact of West Africa is small, and the impact of insect infestations is mainly distributed in East Africa and Central and Western Asia. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations divides the disaster threat into the following four levels, namely calm, caution, threat, and danger, of which the first two levels have a small impact and only constitute potential disasters, which mainly include Sudan, Iran, Oman and other places, and the response plan is mainly based on detection and attention; the last two levels are relatively serious, and the specific areas mainly include: Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, Yemen, Pakistan and India. Crops in such areas have already produced obvious harm or even serious harm, and need to enter large-scale control and take corresponding control measures.
2.2 Overview of the supply and demand of agricultural products in the countries through which they pass
On the evening of February 17, a news item said: "India's current locust plague has basically ended", and the short-term "hype" seems to be coming to an end. However, regardless of whether the locust plague is effectively controlled, between the scale and destructive power of the locust plague, we must also be vigilant against the blind spots of the current market and the potential impact of the future "comeback" of the locust plague.
We divide the countries affected by the locust plague into two main categories, including high-risk countries such as India, Pakistan and East Africa, and non-crisis countries include Iran, Oman and Sudan. The figure above shows the proportion of crops in each country as a percentage of total global production.
From the national point of view, India is a typical agricultural country, rice cotton and sugarcane and other crops account for a considerable proportion of the world, some crops in Pakistan such as cotton and sugarcane also account for a certain proportion of the world, while east Africa and West Asia countries have a smaller yield of agricultural products, accounting for a very low proportion of the world.
From the perspective of single-crop crops, the varieties most affected by the locust plague in Africa are cotton, sorghum, rice, sugarcane, peanuts and rapeseed. If an extreme situation were to occur, the impact on global cotton production would be 28.11%, sorghum 26.31%, sugarcane to 24.39%, rice to 23.74%, and peanuts to 21%. Due to the relatively high proportion of crop yields in India, if we exclude Indian data, the main varieties affected in other affected areas are sorghum, peanuts and cotton, of which sorghum accounts for a relatively large proportion of sorghum production in Ethiopia and Sudan. Therefore, we select several crops that are currently affected or have a potential future impact for a core analysis.
2.2.1 Indian rapeseed
Judging from the latest distribution of locusts, it is mainly located in the border area of India and Pakistan, and according to the situation announced by FAO on February 17, due to the implementation of good control measures, only some of the locusts in India are still in the Rajas Gang, so we will temporarily focus on Rajas.
Rajas State is located in the northwest region of India, covers an area of 340,000 square kilometers, ranked first in the country, the nominal GDP of 18/19 year ranks among the top in India, but also is the more important agricultural product production area in India, the agricultural output value in 18/19 accounts for about 25% of the level, and its agricultural product industry structure is mostly oilseeds, cereals (barley, wheat), tobacco, etc. Rajascarp produces the most oilseeds in India, accounting for more than 25% of India's total oilseed production, and rapeseed is the largest oilseed variety in Rajasse, in terms of individual oilseed sub-categories. According to the Indian Refining Association, Labang produces about 2 million tonnes of rapeseed, representing more than 40% of India's total rapeseed production. In addition, peanuts are also the more important oilseeds in Rajas, and the peanut production in the state is expected to be 1.5 million tons in 19-20 years, accounting for about 25% of the national peanut production. Indian canola is usually planted in November and harvested in April-May of the following year, so it is still in the growing season, and locusts may adversely affect rapeseed in the state. The peanut harvest in 2019-20 has now been completed, and the impact is small for the time being, but the impact of the recurrence of locust plague on the planting period in 20-21 is not ruled out.
2.2.2 India &; Cotton
India and Pakistan's cotton production ranks first and fifth in the world's cotton production, respectively, and the output of the two in 2019-20 is estimated to be 6.42 and 1.44 million tons, accounting for 24% and 5% respectively, which shows the important position of these two production areas in the international cotton market.
Cotton in India is planted from March to September. Specifically, cotton in the northern region begins sowing in early March (dependent on irrigation) and accounts for about 13% of the yield; the central and southern regions sow the sowing period from May to August (relying on monsoon rainfall); the central region is the largest cotton region, accounting for about 60% of the yield, and the main producing states include Gujarat, Mabang and Madhya Pradesh; and the southern region has the latest sowing time. Therefore, rajas and Gujarat, the main locust-affected areas, are the areas where cotton production is more concentrated in central India. Although the impact of the harvest that has been completed is limited, the May planting period requires vigilance against the potential harm of locusts to the 20-21 annual production.
Pakistan's main cotton producing areas are Punjab and Sindh Provinces, which are the hardest hit areas of the locust plague, accounting for 100% of all of Pakistan. Pakistani cotton sowing is in April, although there is no impact at present, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact on Pakistani cotton planting when the locust plague reappears in the future, and once the impact occurs, the degree will be more serious.
2.2.3 Sorghum in East Africa and India
As mentioned above, sorghum is a core crop in countries such as Ethiopia and Sudan. Among them, the production of sorghum in Ethiopia in 19-20 is estimated at 5.2 million tons, and the output of Sudan is 4 million tons, and the total of the two is as high as 16% of the total global production. If the region suffers a large loss of sorghum production, it will implicate the global cereal energy market. We converted the affected cereals to corn according to a certain substitution ratio, which is equivalent to about 35 million tons of corn substitution, and conducted a scenario analysis according to its impact, and obtained the following results:
Assuming that a locust plague causes a 50% decline in sorghum production, which translates to an increase in corn imports by 17.5 million tonnes, this will lead to the destocking of global maize stocks. Global corn stocks in 2019-20 were 296 million tonnes, and the decline in 17.5 million tonnes accounted for about 6% of global inventories. Therefore, the impact of the locust plague on sorghum and thus affecting the global maize supply and demand pattern is not significant.
2.2.4 Indian sugarcane
From the perspective of regional distribution, white sugar and cotton also belong to the coverage area of insect infestation. The data show that the sugar production of India and Pakistan accounts for about 25% of the total global output, so if it is based on extreme judgment, it does have a greater impact, but as mentioned above, the locust distribution is mainly in the India-Pakistan border, because the main sugar production in India is actually in the hinterland of Mabang, Uttar Pradesh and other hinterlands, so the impact on India's sugar production is very limited. For Pakistan, we think there will be some impact, Pakistan's sugar production accounts for about 4% of the total global sugar production, according to the current FAO published locust progress, Punjab, Khyber? There are signs of communities in Pakhtunkhwa province, and static limit assessments can affect more than 70% of Pakistan's total domestic sugar production, which in turn affects about 2.8% of global sugar production.
India's output last year ranked among the world's largest sugar producers, which has a greater impact on global sugar supply and demand, but by analyzing the sugarcane production of the two gangs affected by the disaster, we believe that the locust plague has a small impact on India's sugar production. The hard-hit state of Rajasthan accounts for 0.07% of sugarcane production in India, while the lightly affected gujarat sugarcane area accounts for 3.5% of India, even if the two gangs of sugarcane are all out of harvest, the sugar production affected is 1 million tons, and the current sugarcane maturity stage, the stem is harder, and the damage is expected to be lighter than that of crops such as wheat. Although the current locust plague is almost over, the Indian government has issued warnings that a more severe locust plague may occur in June this year. At that time, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it will have a greater impact on the main sugarcane producing areas.
2.1.5 Indymi
India's wheat production in 2019-20 is expected to be 102 million tons, of which Uttar Pradesh is the largest area for 35% of the planting area, and the affected area of Rajass pradesh is about 10%, so the affected wheat area is expected to reach about 10 million tons. Pakistan's wheat production is expected to be 25.6 million tons, of which the main producing region of the India-Pakistan border, Punjab Province, accounts for more than 80% of the planting area as the core production area. The total potential impact of both is 30 million tonnes, or 4% of the total global wheat yield. At present, Indian wheat is still in the growing stage, while Pakistani wheat is about to enter the sowing period. With global wheat stocks of 288 million tonnes in 2019-20, considering that African locusts have the greatest impact on crops at the India-Pakistan border, if most of the above yields are damaged, it will have a huge impact on the supply of wheat in Pakistan and India, which will lead to a decline in global wheat stocks. The impact of locust plagues on wheat will need to be closely tracked in the future.
Third, the future locust path deduction and analysis
On 17 February, India claimed that it had effectively controlled the locust plague, but if the eggs were not effectively eradicated and there was a problem, it was not excluded that there would be another large-scale locust plague in two to three months, that is, in April and June this year. Therefore, we will analyze the future flight path and possibilities of locusts for the time being.
Will locusts threaten China?
Swarms of locusts fly with the wind and are about the same speed as the wind. They can cover the sky for 100 to 200 kilometers a day and will fly to an altitude of about 2,000 meters, but at higher altitudes they will be too cold. As a result, swarms of locusts are unable to cross alpine mountains such as the Atlas Mountains, the Hindu Kush Mountains, or the Himalayas. They will not venture into the rainforests of Africa, nor into Central Europe. However, adult and swarms of locusts often cross the Red Sea between Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, and there are even reports of ten-day locust infestations from Africa to the Caribbean across the Atlantic Ocean in 1987-89. Main proliferation zones: all countries in North Africa, East Africa, the Middle East to Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, while it is more difficult to access other regions.
Desert locusts prefer drought and do not like humidity. Desert locusts are not very adapted to humid environments, so desert locusts rarely reach central and southern Africa to the south of them, in fact, locusts are relatively large insects, and they are highly dependent on ecosystems.
The desert locust spreads far away mainly by the power of the monsoon. Large swarms of locusts are less likely to fly to China. On the one hand, northeasterly winds now prevail in Southeast Asia in winter, and the flow of desert locusts depends mainly on the Indian Ocean monsoon, while now it is winter ocean currents, and the winds move north from the east coast of India and then turn back. China is in the northeast of India, and it is difficult for sand locusts to fly against the wind to China. So the possibility of locusts entering China on a large scale from Southeast Asia is slim.
Therefore, the main conditions for the African locust to continue to fly on a large scale are: suitable temperature, dry humidity, altitude should not be too high, and the direction of the monsoon. Although the African locust has flown across several parts of the world, it has achieved under conditions that meet its flight conditions!
Can locusts fly from Southeast Asia to China?
The Himalayas have blocked most of the eastward locust swarms, followed by large parts of China controlled by cold and high pressure from October to March and April, and monsoons from the northwest and northeast, making it difficult for locust swarms to swim upstream and threaten China. ------ against the monsoon direction!
Can locusts enter Xinjiang from India and Pakistan to transit the country of Stan?
It is also unlikely that the north of India and Pakistan is high mountains, which are difficult for locusts to cross, and locusts can only fly when the internal temperature is between 22 ° C and 40 ° C. The warming caused by muscle strength forces them to glide frequently to cool down. Therefore, the invasion of China from the west did not meet the locust survival temperature. So in the end, there was no way to go back. ----- temperature is too low!
Fourth, the comprehensive assessment and impact on agricultural products
Through our analysis of crop supply and demand data from countries where locusts approach, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, sorghum and rapeseed peanuts are the main direct or potentially affected crops. As a large agricultural country with a population of 1.4 billion, India directly or indirectly affects crops such as rapeseed, peanuts, cotton and sugarcane; Pakistan, as a relatively important agricultural country, directly or indirectly affects crops including cotton, wheat and sugarcane; and east African countries directly affect crops such as sorghum and wheat.
1. Directly affect the variety:
Grease: Inrakshas pradesh is located on the Indo-Pakistani border, and the state is the core affected area of the locust plague. Rajas pradesh is the core rapeseed and peanut producing area in India, and other oil seeds such as peanuts and soybeans are not currently planted or grown, but rapeseeds that are currently in the growing stage may be directly affected by locust plagues. As the largest vegetable oil produced in India, India's vegetable oil production is estimated at 2.58 million tons in 2019-20. African locusts prefer to eat grain and have a general fondness for rapeseed feeding. Assuming that rapeseed production thus falls by 20% (40% of the area * 50% is damaged), that is, the production of vegetable oil falls by 500,000 tons, it means that India, which is strongly dependent on imported oils and fats, needs to import additional oils and fats to meet its domestic demand (import dependence is 70%). This is true of vegetable oil, and it is also true of peanut oil. However, it should be noted that the decline in vegetable oil production is not necessarily directly beneficial to the import of vegetable oil, and the low price is the first choice for India's oil and fat imports. At the current international oil and fat spread, soybean oil sunflower oil or palm oil support more imports due to their relatively low prices. For palm oil, if India's import demand increases by 500,000 tons, the inventory of origin will continue to be greatly reduced, which is conducive to the continued rise in palm oil prices at home and abroad, which in turn will drive the price of all varieties of vegetable oil. Therefore, in the future, we need to pay attention to whether there is a possibility of a significant reduction in Indian rapeseed production in 19-20 years.
Protein meal: In 2018, China's liberalization of imports of Indian rapeseed meal caused the market to pay attention to Indian rapeseed meal. At present, the USDA estimates India's rapeseed meal production at 4.05 million tons and annual export volume of 900,000 tons, making it the second largest exporter after Canadian granular rapeseed meal. Although there are many problems with the quality of Indian rapeseed meal, most domestic feed companies have limited willingness to purchase, but the decline in Indian rapeseed meal exports may cause the price of Canadian rapeseed meal to rise, which in turn will affect the domestic import of Canadian pellet meal and related miscellaneous meal, in the case of its own Canadian rapeseed import restrictions, if the supply of pellet meal declines, it will also give the logical support of the domestic rapeseed meal plate "speculation", so the future still needs to continue to pay attention.
Wheat: Wheat production at the Indo-Pakistan border accounts for 4% of global production, and global wheat stocks are expected to decline significantly as the region is the hardest hit. While international wheat prices may therefore be boosted, domestic wheat is a self-sufficient and independent market with negligible imports and exports, so it does not have much impact on domestic wheat prices.
Sorghum: Unexpectedly, Ethiopia and Sudan, which are currently suffering from locusts in East Africa, are the main producers of sorghum, accounting for 16% of the world's production. African countries have low management efficiency in crop management and are expected to have poor prognosis once an impact is formed. However, if sorghum is converted to maize based on energy substitution, the decline in global maize stocks due to the expected growth in maize imports is limited, and the impact on the global maize market is expected to be limited.
2. Potentially affected varieties:
Cotton: The border regions of India and Pakistan are the main producers of cotton, especially in Pakistan. India and Pakistan account for up to 29% of global cotton production. However, it is not the current cotton growing season, so the locust plague does not pose a direct impact for the time being. However, it should be noted that once the eggs or larvae of locusts are not completely eradicated, the reappearance of locusts after 1-2 months may have a significant potential impact on the planting period in 20-21. Therefore, India and Pakistan, as the main cotton producing areas, will continue to track the occurrence of insect pests during the sensitive planting period in the future.
Sugarcane: India and Pakistan account for 16% of the world's total sugarcane production, but the main source of Sugarcane in India is in places such as Madhya Pradesh, Malaysia, and is not the current India-Pakistan border, so it does not pose a direct impact. In addition, pakistan's sugarcane production areas partially overlap with the affected areas, and the future needs close attention.
Similar to cotton, sugarcane accounts for a relatively large proportion of production in India and Pakistan, although it does not constitute a direct impact at present, but the reappearance or accidental migration flight of African locusts in the future may still bring potentially significant changes.
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