Per reporter: Bi Yuanyuan
Per editor: Liang Qi, Lu Xiangyong
May 1st, did you go to the cinema to watch a movie?
On May Day this year, residents' consumption showed full vitality. In addition to the popularity of tourism and hotel industries, the release of 19 new films also made the audience pick and choose, which can be called "the most lively May 1st file in history".
Maoyan Professional Edition shows that as of 21 o'clock on April 30, the daily box office was 310 million yuan, and the box office of the schedule has accumulated about 770 million yuan. Among them, "The King of the Long Sky" leads, followed by "Life Road Unfamiliar" and "So Many Years".
"King of the Long Sky" poster Image source: Cat's Eye Pro
The competition of May 1st is fierce, and there are many listed film and television companies behind it, such as Ali Pictures, China Film, Bona Film, Maoyan Entertainment, Hengdian Film and Television, Guangguang Media, Wentou Holdings, Wanda Film, etc.
Every reporter noticed that since the 20th, Tangde Film and Television, and Shanghai Film, which have risen the most obviously in film and television stocks, are not the main forces participating in the May 1st file.
Li Yanlu, manager of Jinan Quancheng Road New Century Cinema, said frankly in an interview with every reporter: "The current performance of May 1st has not met expectations. We had expected the primetime of "King of the Long Sky" to be full, but it is currently average. ”
"King of the Long Sky" is difficult to become the main force
19 films were released in a bunch, and this year's May 1st show is lively again.
As of 13:13 on April 28, the pre-sale box office of the new film in May 2023 exceeded 100 million. As of 21:30 on April 30, the box office of the market on the day after May Day (April 30) exceeded 314 million, exceeding the box office on the first day of May 1st.
Image source: Maoyan Pro Edition screenshot
It can be called the "most crowded in history" of the May 1st gear, and the multiple types lead to differentiated competition, and the popularity is different. According to Liu Zhenfei, an analyst at Maoyan Research Institute, from the perspective of popularity dimension and pre-sale results, the new films that have been finalized belong to three major echelons.
"The King of the Long Sky" starring Wang Yibo and Hu Jun led the highest popularity of the whole line with 560,000 cat's eyes wanting to see, and as of press time, the film's box office was 273 million yuan.
Located in the second echelon of popularity, "The Road of Life is Unfamiliar" starring Qiao Shan, Fan Chengcheng, Ma Li, etc., "So Many Years" starring Zhang Xincheng and others, "Prosecutor Fengyun" starring Huang Jingyu, Bai Baihe and others, the box office of the film as of press office was 211 million, 127 million and 29.02 million respectively.
Image source: Maoyan Pro
Located in the third echelon, "Shocking Rescue" and "Countdown to Say Love You", as of press time, the box office is 25.45 million yuan and 16.15 million yuan.
The animated film "Slam Dunk", which has been in theaters for 11 days, is still strong, ranking fourth in the real-time box office list on April 30, behind only the three new films.
Liu Zhenfei said that this year's May 1st gear has more unique advantages than previous years. Affected by the Qingming holiday of only 1 day, incremental users' demand for watching movies during this period is insufficient, and May Day, as the first small long holiday after it, will continue to reap the viewing dividends of the Qingming holiday.
According to Liu Zhenfei's analysis, this year's May 1st film is more attractive to the audience in the sinking market. Compared with the May 1st file in 2021, the three live-action movies "Your Wedding", "Sunshine Robbers" and "Sweeping Black Decisive Battle" account for a relatively high proportion of third- and fourth-tier cities. Maoyan wants to see the portrait shows that the four films "Life Road is Unfamiliar", "Countdown to Love You", "So Many Years" and "Shocking Rescue" show a strong attraction to third- and fourth-tier cities. Among them, especially romance movies and comedy movies have a stronger appeal to the demand for watching movies during the popular schedule of the sinking market.
Li Yanlu believes that the current performance of the May 1st gear has not met expectations. "There are a lot of films but the overall popularity is not high, "King of the Long Sky" brushed fans yesterday (28th), but it lacks stamina." An anonymous analyst also told every reporter that "King of the Long Sky" will definitely lead on the first day, but the long term will not be too good.
"With so many films released and "King of the Long Sky" so popular before, we expected that the prime time should be full, but the current attendance is average. In fact, the quantity and quality of May Day movies this year are not very weak, that is, the overall viewing popularity has decreased, perhaps it is the market recovery period, and they have traveled. Li Yanlu thought.
Before May Day, film and television stocks gained limited
As one of the popular schedules of the year, May 1st is the main box office force of theatrical movies in the first half of the year. According to Maoyan Professional Edition data, the box office record of the May Day file from 2014 to 2021 shows that the box office of the festival file has risen for 6 consecutive years, and achieved a breakthrough of more than 1.5 billion at the box office during the 2019 holiday period after the holiday time was extended.
With the rise of market heat, many brokerages have also begun to pay attention to the May 1st file. Wanlian Securities Research Report believes that as an important domestic holiday, the box office of May Day has always occupied an important position in the annual box office, with the total box office rising from 784 million yuan in 2017 to 1.674 billion yuan in 2021, and the proportion of the box office in the annual box office has gradually climbed from 1.40% to 3.56%. In 2022, due to the large-scale closure of theaters, the May 1st schedule of movies has been withdrawn, and the box office is far less than expected, and in 2023, theaters will fully resume operation, and the key films that have been withdrawn will increase the May 1st schedule, coupled with the audience's retaliatory consumption enthusiasm, it is expected that this year's May 1st schedule will rise back to the level of 2021, continuing the previous continuous upward trend.
Specifically, Wanlian Securities predicts that the total box office of May 1st will reach 2.286 billion yuan, of which "King of the Long Sky", as Wang Yibo's original first big-screen work, has accumulated a high degree of attention and emotional value of fans after last year's National Day file withdrawal and re-filing, with an estimated box office of 942 million yuan; the expected box office of the road movie "Family Fun" "Life is Unfamiliar" and the youth campus movie "So Many Years" backed by the IP of August Chang'an "Zhenhua Series" are expected to have a box office of 519 million yuan and 318 million yuan.
CICC Research Report said that the box office schedule effect of movies in the post-epidemic era is obvious, and May 1st has also attracted high attention as a small schedule. It is estimated that under the neutral scenario, the box office of May Day including service fees in 2021 will be 1.700 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6% over 2019.
The competition of May 1st is fierce, and there are many listed film and television companies behind it. For example, "The King of the Long Sky" is produced by Ali Pictures, China Film and Bona Film, "Life is Unfamiliar" is produced by Ali Pictures, Maoyan Entertainment, Chinese Film and Hengdian Film and Television, "So Many Years" is produced by Light Media, "Prosecutor's Wind" is produced by Wentou Holdings and Maoyan Entertainment, and "Countdown Says Love You" is produced by Wanda Film.
Since the 20th, among the main forces of May 1st films, the stock price has risen the most is Chinese films, up 20.52%, and Guangguang Media, Bona Film, Hengdian Film and Television and Wanda Film have risen by 19.53%, 9.71%, 4.37% and 1.93% respectively.
In Hong Kong stocks, Maoyan Entertainment has risen 2.7% since April, and Alibaba Pictures has fallen by about 3%.
It can be seen from the above that before the May 1st file, the stock prices of listed film and television companies increased limitedly. Liao Xuhua, a senior analyst in the cultural consumption industry at Analysys, said in an interview with reporters that film and television stocks rose, partly because the company bet on May 1st and summer files, and partly because of the "hype" of new technologies such as AIGC.
The box office performance of the schedule will definitely affect the stock price trend of listed companies. Recently, at the forum of the "China Film Investment and Financing Summit" of the Beijing Film Festival, Huang Qunfei, executive deputy general manager of Huaxia Film Distribution Co., Ltd., said: "May 1st, especially this year's summer file, is very critical, if the box office of these two film schedules can be as hot as the Spring Festival file, capital outside the industry will also enter." ”
Western Securities Research Report said that looking forward to the follow-up, the content reserve is rich, and the summer files "Fengshen Part 1: Song of the Dynasty", "Super Family", "Megalodon 2: The Abyss", "Warm" and "In the Octagonal Cage" are worth paying attention to. As the rhythm of domestic films returns to normal, imported films are introduced one after another, it is expected that the film market is expected to usher in a double vibration of supply and demand in 2023, and the box office is expected to be 45 billion ~ 50 billion yuan for the whole year, recovering to the level of 70%~80% in 2019.
Reporter|Bi Yuanyuan Editor|Liang Qi, Lu Xiangyong, Du Bo
Proofreading | Cheng Peng
Daily Economic News NBDNEWS original article
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