Many people say that people with a monthly salary of 3,000 discuss national affairs every day, and the big bosses are talking about the realization of profits, this is indeed true, most people are really not interested in national affairs, even me, I am not interested, I am concerned about economic data and the impact of geopolitical changes on the economy.
Gold as a non-mainstream currency, subject to its production capacity, it can not do the world currency after the second industrial revolution (capacity explosion), but also subject to production capacity, bringing confidence, bitcoin and gold, the essence of bitcoin is a finite solution to higher-order equations, and its development difficulty is more and more difficult later.
Gold and bitcoin can only appreciate through speculation, foreign exchange is also through speculation to appreciate, the appreciation of the three is essentially cash, the most liquid commodity in the period of lack of liquidity, can provide precious liquidity, this logic can explain the price of gold in 2008 when the economic crisis broke out.
The endorsement of foreign exchange is by foreign governments, when there are some wars abroad (foreign capital in Ukraine fleeing), the implementation of policies contrary to the predecessor (Britain) and other dangerous government events, the exchange rate will have a large number of price fluctuations, price fluctuations can generate speculation space.
But these two things are different, the act of war for both sides of the war is a great interference in the normal production of their country, will greatly affect investment expectations, produce a large number of production risks and production cost increases, and then capital will flee, foreign exchange will change, safe-haven funds will also pour into gold, which is why gold rose during the Russian-Ukrainian war last year.
In a very short period of time, the prime minister stepped down and then came to power, the paper currency endorses the national credit, and the country's political changes will also affect the exchange rate, but it is unlikely to have an impact on gold, because the government's intervention in the economy takes time.
Cash-like commodities, whether bitcoin or foreign exchange, are not preferred to resist asset depreciation because they are inherently flawed as assets and they cannot generate income.
So depending on which aspect you invest in, some investment products must have a judgment on the general trend of the world.
People with a monthly salary of 3,000 need to blow to gain recognition or pass the time, while leaders or bosses drive people with profit, drive people with pies, one is ordinary chatter, the other is to ask you to work, naturally different.
I don't think there is anything wrong with these two, for the big boss, personal relationship is also work, understand more about subordinates, organize production is not organize machine production, and the boss can not talk to most people about feelings, feelings take time, big bosses do not have so much time, interests to maintain feelings longer than pure feelings.
Now the news is also a problem, the problem is that there are too many spam news, you have a set of news analysis system, that actually does not need to participate in too many high-end dinners to analyze it.
My approach doesn't require you to have a lot of connections, and the downside is that you become lonely because most people don't like this data analysis and are too far away from life.
This kind of analysis system takes time to trial and error, to correct, you have the resources of the big guy, that's better.
Why I like to analyze this data, because many current things and trends I heard before the epidemic, I have witnessed the realization of a person's prophecy, at first it was a relatively easy view, but then it came true, I can only say that it is awesome.
To paraphrase the phrase of the movie "The Silence of the Lambs": "We covet everyday things", many people do not believe that this can make money, so there will be a person who succeeds in doing a business, the town or the entire county is doing this business, which is the leading role that many people say.
I've seen the big guy's predictions come true, so I've also started to analyze some trends.
Generally speaking, different people think differently, and if they have seen high-yield things, they will not do low-yield things.
Gamblers are obsessed with gambling, and the main gambling returns are too high, causing people to be reluctant to do other things, which is the same reason as the current labor dilemma, but the problem now is that the job returns are too low.
2. Interpretation of data of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter
This week's release of the profit data of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first quarter, compared with the data of January-February, the profit of January to February fell by 22.9%, the profit of the first quarter (January-March) fell by 21.4%, of course, there are some more important data in the first quarter data.
The profits of state-owned enterprises fell by 16.9%, joint-stock enterprises by 20.6%, foreign-funded enterprises by 24.9%, and private enterprises by 23.0%.
Foreign capital and private enterprises continue to come under pressure, when the profits of foreign capital and private enterprises exist, no matter how you scold him, he will not leave, once there is no profit, how you coax it to leave.
This data also shows that the proportion of the state-owned economy in the industrial economy is increasing.
From January to February, I used the profits of state-owned industrial enterprises to decline, but the overall profits of state-owned enterprises were positive, to conclude that the majority of the profits of state-owned enterprises were provided by the tertiary industry, and concluded that the economic trend of national advancement and retreat and dematerialization to virtual is strengthening.
Then there are the profits of specific different industries, mining profits fell by 5.8%, manufacturing profits fell by 29.4%, and upstream energy enterprises such as electricity and gas increased by 33.2%.
This data shows that upstream energy monopoly state-owned enterprises have a good time, while non-monopoly state-owned enterprises have a hard time.
High upstream energy prices are also a reason for manufacturing companies to move out of China, so it is biased to emphasize that young people are not willing to go to the factory to maintain the advantages of China's manufacturing industry.
From January to March, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 31.18 trillion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year; Operating costs were 26.52 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.6%;
The operating income margin was 4.86%, down 1.30 percentage points year-on-year.
Operating income and profit have both declined, production capacity is greater than the market, and price reduction can not support sales, which is a signal to obviously enter the shrinkage economy; Operating income and profit are twin, and production capacity is much smaller than market demand, which is a signal to enter the incremental economy; Operating income rises and profits fall, and this data appears in the case of slow cost growth or price product selling price, which is a stock economic signal; Operating income declines and profits rise, which usually occur in the transition stage from overcapacity to capacity balance in the case of cost reduction or readjustment of production time.
The last phenomenon is derived from my observation of the enterprises I work for, which happens to be talking about industrial enterprise data, which is a policy change for upstream energy enterprises, such as the three-stage electricity price difference policy of Guizhou Province, which is the optimization of production costs; There is also the cost reduction that occurs after the layoff, but when the capacity is not overcapacity, the layoff and optimization of production time to reduce the production cost of the enterprise are factors that the company will not consider, because under the incremental economy, production time is the largest cost.
At the end of March, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above designated size was 21.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%; The inventory of finished products was 6.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.1%.
You have friends who do business, wish it goods like rotation is no problem, business mainly pays attention to a liquidity, money changes, goods become money, the shorter the process the better.
Therefore, the increase in accounts receivable and the increase in product inventory, this long conversion cycle of money and goods, means that the cash flow of enterprises is tight.
The above is the interpretation of industrial profit data above designated size in the first quarter
3. Positioning now
The initial orientation was to be famous, but later found out what is the actual value of your article? The future is the future, you all know the future, why write here, like an Internet beggar.
What I wrote in college doesn't have much value, but what I wrote after work, if you look at the article I wrote last year, you also go to buy some investment products that you know are based on the government debt of the southwest region, I can only say that you didn't understand what I wrote.
Many people think that teachers are OK last year, but I have always stressed that in the aging society, teachers are not a good choice, of course, better than unemployment, 17 years to now 6 years, these elementary schools are about to worry about the source of students.
Many people will feel that they are the provincial capital, that the economy of their region is very good, and that it has nothing to do with them, and that if the bad trend is weakening and the good trend is strengthening, then it does not matter.
Three years ago, I thought that three years ago was a special situation, and it would be better when it passed, and two years ago I thought that '08, 2008 is not too bad.
A year ago it seemed unlikely that a major layoff would come, and now hopefully not in the Great Depression.
Later, I feel that self-media is a wild dog, free but not guaranteed, and the official media is very comfortable.
At this point, I don't have much hope of gain, because this habit has improved my memory and allowed me to understand a lot of data and phenomena.
I benefited from white, because if I had to pay for a high level of knowledge, then I would not be able to achieve this idea.
Now I think this Internet taxi driver is the most appropriate, let's brag together, bragging chat is also a kind of just needed.
Han Yichen, an Internet taxi driver, is really accurate.
Anyone who can write an article on the interpretation of economic data is considered bad at mathematics, let alone me.