Due to its long industrial chain, strong driving force, large influence, wide coverage and high degree of internationalization, the cruise industry was once known as "the gold industry floating on the golden waterway". However, in the past three years, the port and shipping industry has been full of pots, the port industry has bucked the trend and exceeded expectations, and industries such as shipbuilding and chartering have benefited to varying degrees. Only the cruise industry, whose dual identity of transportation and tourism has become an industry shackle and has almost stopped. On March 26, 2023, the first domestic coastal cruise route in Shanghai Cruise's home port was launched, bringing some sunshine to the industry, but there are still hidden worries about the restart of international cruise routes.
Carnival before the storm
Since the beginning of the new century, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the disposable income level of mainland residents and the proportion of middle- and high-income people have been continuously improved, and people's consumption concepts have undergone tremendous changes, especially in the consumption demand and consumption capacity of high-end tourism products. The cruise industry presents a blue ocean in China's tourism market, international giant cruise companies have actively explored China's cruise tourism market, and China's cruise home port facilities are also gradually improving. Data show that since 2006, 16 cruise ports with departure functions have been built along China's coast (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). After more than ten years of rapid development, in 2018, China's cruise industry entered a strategic adjustment period from "high-speed growth" to "high-quality, high-grade development", in 2018, China's cruise ports received 976 cruise ships, receiving 4,886,700 inbound and outbound tourists, including 898 homeport cruise ships and 4,714,200 homeport inbound and outbound tourists. According to the ranking of inbound and outbound tourists, China's top ten cruise ports are: Shanghai Wusongkou International Cruise Port, Tianjin International Cruise Homeport, Guangzhou Port International Cruise Homeport, Shenzhen China Merchants Shekou Cruise Homeport, Xiamen International Cruise Center, Qingdao Cruise Homeport, Dalian International Cruise Center, Haikou Xiuying Port, Shanghai Port International Passenger Transport Center, Sanya Phoenix Island International Cruise Port, of which Shanghai Wusongkou International Cruise Port maintains its position as the largest cruise home port in China with absolute advantages (data).
Darkest Hour
The cruise industry is in full swing in China, but the outbreak of the new crown epidemic has undoubtedly given the entire cruise industry a head start. In January 2020, Royal Caribbean, Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Mediterranean Cruises voluntarily announced the suspension of sailings. In the first quarter of 2020, the share prices of the world's three major cruise lines fell by more than 76%, and the market value lost more than $50 billion.
In response to the epidemic, in January 2020, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China issued the "Urgent Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Prevention and Control of the Pneumonia Epidemic Infected by the Novel Coronavirus and Suspension of Tourism Enterprise Business Activities", and all outbound tourism business was immediately suspended, and on January 30, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Urgent Notice on Coordinating and Doing a Good Job in Epidemic Prevention and Control and Waterway Transportation Guarantee", requiring that in terms of international cruise transportation, provincial transportation authorities should work with health, cultural tourism, customs and other departments. Actively guide international cruise lines to carry out risk assessment of epidemic prevention and control in cruise operations, and prudently decide to suspend the resumption of routes. Although it is not clear that cruise ships will be suspended, after the two notices, there will be no cruise ships in the coastal cruise ports in Chinese mainland, and China's cruise industry will fall into a shutdown, forming a blank area in the international cruise industry pattern.
However, in other regions, after August 2020, the controllability of the global epidemic has increased, European and American countries have gradually opened ports, lifted travel bans, and successively opened cruise ports, and most cruise operators have resumed sailing, and up to now, the international cruise resumption rate is close to 100%. Taking Japan in Asia as an example, in the summer of 2021, Japan began to gradually relax entry restrictions, and in order to promote the recovery of cruise tourism, the Japanese government introduced relevant policies and measures, including the implementation of the "Safe Travel" program, encouraging cruise companies to strengthen epidemic prevention and disinfection measures, and supporting the development of cruise tourism through tax exemptions and exemptions. With its relatively relaxed management policy and the advantages of mature cruise home ports and ports of call, Japan has won the favor of a large number of international cruise companies.
Rebirth? Or silence?
Today, the launch of domestic coastal cruise routes is a glimmer of light into Shanghai, the long-dormant home port of Asia's first cruise ship. However, with the restart of international cruise routes, there are still many things that need to be improved and prepared.
Since the opening of the cruise home port in 2006, except for the epidemic, international cruise routes from Shanghai have been suspended many times, such as China-Japan routes in 2011 and 2013, and China-South Korea routes in 2015 and 2017, of which the China-South Korea routes were suspended in 2017 and have not resumed. Every time the cultural and tourism department calls for the suspension of international cruise routes, there is no written document, but only verbally conveys that the travel agency will stop selling within a time limit, and the ban on international cruise ships will be affected through the travel agency ban. The deployment of international cruise routes in a region and the sale of tickets need to be one to one and a half years in advance, and the suspension of routes forces cruise companies to redeploy, refund, change, compensate, deal with customer complaints, and then re-find alternative ports of call to deploy routes, and the operation and sales rhythm are completely disrupted, and the losses are heavy. Coupled with the epidemic for three years, international cruise companies are worried about the business environment of China's cruise market, and the wait-and-see mood is strong: the epidemic and natural disasters are force majeure, and the changes in international relations can also be understood, but the mismatch, lag and administrative scrux and arbitrary supervision make the Chinese market full of unpredictability and instability for international cruise companies.
On October 26, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the 2022 Catalogue for Encouraging Foreign Investment, which listed "cruise maritime passenger transportation business" as an industry to encourage foreign investment. From the central government to Shanghai, reform and opening up, optimization of the business environment is clear, in order to restore and develop Shanghai home port international cruise routes faster and better, China's cruise industry should refer to the method of managing international air routes to manage international cruise routes, and avoid excessive interference in international cruise routes by administrative orders. International air routes are supervised by the Ministry of Transport, and when natural disasters and international relations events occur, international aviation business will also be affected, but due to the single regulatory authority of international airlines, the scope and duration of the impact are short, at least there will be no route stoppage. In order to ensure a stable operating environment for international cruise lines, relevant ministries and commissions should manage international cruise routes with reference to the method of managing international cruise routes when resuming international cruise routes, and should allow international cruise routes to continue to operate as long as international air routes between China and neighboring countries continue to operate. This issue is not only related to international cruise lines, but also to the survival and development of Chinese-funded cruise lines.
Port circle (ID: gangkouquan) believes that under the influence of the epidemic, the global cruise network pattern has ushered in deconstruction and reconstruction, cruise travel due to the characteristics of high capital investment and high operating costs, has always appeared in the form of high-end tourism products in front of the public, international cruise ships are even worse, under the influence of the epidemic, cruise ships have been forced to stop, but cruise companies still need to pay high operating costs, including but not limited to company operations, ship maintenance, employee salaries and ship docking costs. In addition, in response to the national epidemic prevention policy, the investment in epidemic prevention costs is undoubtedly worse, and the depreciation of fixed costs also affects the company's profit performance. Under the giant innovation, the cruise industry can only choose to withdraw from the Chinese market in order to survive. If we want to regain our former advantageous position, we must rationalize the competent authorities and regulatory models, and give full play to the advantages of location and market demand, so that international cruise routes can return to their former vigorous state.
Text|Zhou Zhimin Xiao Ming