Burning Dimension (ID: chaintruth) original
Author|Cao Yang
Edit| Rao Xiafei
The release of Mate X3 once again consolidated Huawei's leading position in the field of folding screen mobile phones.
At 2:30 p.m. on March 23, Huawei held a spring new product conference and released a number of products including Huawei P60 series and Mate X3 folding screen.
At the press conference, Yu Chengdong, executive director of Huawei and CEO of Terminal BG, said, "It is difficult for folding screen mobile phones to achieve both thin and light screens, but Huawei has made large-screen folding mobile phones lighter and thinner than straight boards for the first time. ”
Source/Combustion Dimension screenshot
In addition to thinness, the Mate X3 is first equipped with "Lingxi Communication" and supports two-way Beidou satellite messages. At the same time, it has also improved the screen and hinge, and adopted Kunlun glass, which has increased the drop resistance to 10 times.
However, while paying attention to technology, Ran Dimension saw that many netizens in the live broadcast comment area were ridiculing the price, "100,000, 200,000", "Make a friend within 8,000 yuan", "I will take it within 10,000 yuan", "Cheaper so that we can afford it"...
However, the final price of Huawei Mate X3 from 12999 yuan to 15999 yuan did not meet consumers' wishes. In other words, this price range is actually as expected by netizens. A number of viewers at the press conference said to Ran Dimension, "The disadvantage of Huawei's folding screen mobile phone is that the price is too high. ”
"But if it sells 8999 yuan / unit, then other manufacturers don't have to play." In other words, Huawei's leading technology of folding screen mobile phones makes its price high, which just makes other mobile phone manufacturers see opportunities. One of the industry insiders who has studied mobile phones said.
As the above-mentioned industry insiders said, in the context of smart phones showing market fatigue, folding screens, a segment with high-value attributes and differentiated product forms, have become a new track for domestic mobile phone manufacturers to compete for layout.
According to data released by market research agency Counterpoint, global smartphone sales in 2022 fell by 12% year-on-year. However, contrary to the overall decline of smartphones, China's folding screen mobile phone shipments in 2022 increased by 154% year-on-year, and the overall shipment reached 3.6 million units.
Another set of mobile phone manufacturers from the "2023 China Folding Screen Mobile Phone Market Insight Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") shows that in 2022, the top five mobile phone manufacturers in China's folding screen mobile phone market share are Huawei, Samsung, OPPO, Xiaomi and vivo. It is worth emphasizing that although Huawei's market share of folding screen mobile phones in the past 3 years is far ahead, the threat from other mobile phone manufacturers also has to be paid attention to. The report pointed out that in 2022, OPPO's Find N will be in the top five, with sales of 250,000 units.
In this regard, Li Yingtao, a retail analyst at Analysys, analyzed that folding screen technology is relatively immature before 2022, and production costs are relatively high. With the gradual maturity of technology, especially after the reduction of production costs, "in 2022, the market ushered in an outbreak, and it is very likely to be a starting point for manufacturers to try from a few attempts to a rapid outbreak." ”
01
There are many styles, and the folding screen is very good
In October 2018, Royole released the first folding screen mobile phone Roupai FlexPai. Later, in February 2019, Samsung launched the Samsung Galaxy Fold, which is regarded by the industry as the first truly mass-produced and influential folding screen mobile phone. Almost at the same time, Huawei's first folding screen mobile phone "Huawei Mate X" was launched.
Subsequently, Huawei successively released Huawei Mate Xs, Huawei Mate X2, Huawei P50 Pocket, Huawei Mate Xs 2, Huawei P50 Pocket S, and the newly released Mate X3.
At the press conference, Yu Chengdong emphasized when introducing his folding screen mobile phone that Huawei's folding screen is constantly innovating every generation, "It can be said that the technology of folding screen, Huawei must be far ahead." ”
Yu Chengdong's pride is for a reason.
Since February 2019, the release of the Mate X, the "first eagle wing folding hinge", each generation of Huawei folding screen mobile phones has been born with the "industry first". For example, the Mate X3 is the "first smart multi-window", "the first double-rotating water drop hinge", "the first hyperspectral imaging technology", and "the industry's first four-curved folding technology".
Photo: Huawei folding screen mobile phone
Source/Combustion Dimension screenshot
In this regard, IDC China senior analyst Guo Tianxiang told Ran Dimension that Huawei's several generations of folding screen products have different strategic significance, "previous generations of products have a certain experimental nature, internal folding, external folding and vertical folding forms, to observe market feedback, to educate consumers mentally, but also wait for the progress of the corresponding technology in the supply chain." With the gradual maturity of all aspects, folding screen products have begun to become more and more the main models of shipments. ”
As Guo Tianxiang said, Huawei's folding screen products cover three kinds of folding forms: outer folding, inner folding and vertical folding. At the same time, with continuous exploration and innovation in materials, structures, screens, etc., Huawei has also achieved a market share of more than 50% in China for three consecutive years.
According to the report, the shipment of foldable mobile phones in China will be about 3.6 million units in 2022, with a growth rate of 154.4%, and its shipments are expected to exceed 5.5 million units in 2023. Among them, Huawei folding screen mobile phones have a market share of more than 50% for three consecutive years.
The "Report" further mentioned that in the overall recognition of folding screen mobile phone brands, 84.1% of smartphone users have heard about the folding screen mobile phone series launched by Huawei.
"At present, the folding screen mobile phones with relatively high consumer recognition and better sales are Huawei and Samsung." Xuri, who has been working as a mobile phone channel dealer for ten years, told Ran Dimension. However, Rising Sun also bluntly said that since last summer, especially after OPPO released a new folding screen product at the end of last year, the number of consumers who came to consult has also increased.
Guo Tianxiang told Ran Dimension that Huawei's increased efforts to layout folding screen mobile phones, on the one hand, the lack of 5G, after the impact on Huawei's high-end brand image, Huawei needs to maintain its position in the high-end market through a new product form, "On the other hand, folding screen mobile phones have a high premium, Huawei also needs to increase profits and improve the performance of terminals through folding screens." ”
As Guo Tianxiang said, according to Huawei's 2018-2020 annual report, the revenue of Huawei's consumer business was 348.8 billion yuan (RMB, the same is not indicated below), 467.3 billion yuan and 482.9 billion yuan, up 45.1%, 34% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively.
It is not difficult to see from the data that in 2020, the upward trend of Huawei's consumer business has slowed down significantly. In 2021, Huawei's consumer business revenue was only 243.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 49.6%.
According to the latest data released by Huawei, in the first half of 2022, the revenue of Huawei's terminal business was only 101.3 billion yuan (on April 20, 2022, Huawei changed the name of "consumer business" to "terminal business").
02
There are few spots, there are many opponents
Inseparable from the decline in performance, since the chip supply was cut off in 2019, "no spot" has become a lingering label for Huawei mobile phones in the past 4 years.
Ran Dimension searched for the folding screen mobile phone "HUAWEI Mate Xs 2 512GB Jinbai" in Huawei's official mall, Huawei Jingdong's self-operated official flagship store, and Taobao's Huawei official flagship store, of which the official store prompted "arrival notification", and the other two e-commerce platforms showed "out of stock".
Source/Combustion Dimension screenshot
Not only can online official channels not buy spots, but offline Huawei authorized experience stores are also out of stock.
After asking the staff of a number of offline Huawei authorized experience stores about "whether HUAWEI Mate Xs 2 512GB Jinbai is in stock", the reply was all exceptional, "If you are sure, I will see if I can transfer the goods for you, and flash delivery is okay." ”
A staff member of Huawei's authorized experience store in Changping District, Beijing, told Ran Dimension that the best selling Huawei folding screen mobile phone at this stage is "HUAWEI Mate Xs 2", but it is basically not in stock, "Whether it is Xs2 or Pocket s, it depends on what color you want and what configuration of the machine, I will go to see if there is goods in the warehouse." ”
When asked when he would get the goods if he booked the new folding screen mobile phone Mate X3 now, the above-mentioned staff said bluntly, "The arrival time cannot be determined, but the early stage is definitely enough." ”
A staff member of Huawei's authorized experience at China World Mall in Chaoyang District, Beijing, also said that each store generally arrives at 2-3 units, basically this store is out of stock, and the possibility of other stores having goods is not large, "There are not many consumers who book products in advance, most of them are after consulting in the store, if there is a purchase intention, just buy it when they are in stock." If you make a reservation, the arrival time is generally about a week. ”
At the same time as the shortage of spots, Huawei is also facing the siege of many mobile phone manufacturers. Among them, I have to mention that OPPO, which disclosed the latest results of the folding screen on the new product release a few days ago.
Ran Dimension in the article "Is the folding screen OPPO's "savior"? On March 21, OPPO held what was known as the "largest product launch conference in three years" in Shenzhen, and Liu Zuohu, OPPO's chief product officer, proudly shouted at the beginning of the conference, "OPPO Find N2 series, three consecutive months, folding screen sales first." According to CINNO Research data, in January this year, OPPO folding screen mobile phone sales increased by 483% year-on-year, with a market share of 30%, topping the domestic list for the first time.
Behind the rapid increase in sales, it may be inseparable from OPPO's ample spots. At the same time, Ran Dimension searched for "OPPO Find N2 16GB+512GB Yunbai" in OPPO's self-operated official flagship store, which was displayed as "In stock, ordered before 12:00, expected to be delivered today (March 22)".
At the end of last year, Brother Zhuan, who bought OPPO Find N2, told Ran Dimension, "I have bought a total of 4 folding screen mobile phones. The first is vivo X Fold, and the last 3 are all OPPO Find N2. To be honest, the two folding screen phones of OPPO and vivo have little difference in performance when used. ”
Zhuan Ge further introduced that whether it is taking photos, screens or systems, the two products are very good. "It's just that the vivo X Fold is a little thick, the overall weight of the phone is a bit heavy, and the boys don't like backpacks, so it's a little tired to hold it in my hand as the main machine, so I gave it to my dad." The shortcomings of OPPO are that light is light, but the software adaptation is not very good, and some software is not smooth enough when the screen is on, but there is still no problem as a backup machine. ”
But OPPO is not the only one eyeing the folding screen market. In 2022, known as the year of the outbreak of folding screens, domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, including vivo, Xiaomi, Huawei, OPPO, Honor, etc., respectively, launched vivo X Fold+, Xiaomi's MIX Fold 2, Huawei Mate Xs 2, OPPO Find N2 Flip and Honor Magic Vs, a total of ten folding screen mobile phones, and respectively have outstanding performance in panel refresh rate, rear lens and battery capacity.
In addition, although Apple has not yet launched a folding screen mobile phone, the patented technology that has been exposed must also attract the attention of mobile phone manufacturers, including Huawei.
On March 17, according to Appleinsider, an Apple patent on "folding screen iPhone falls to protect itself" was exposed. The patent shows that when the Apple folding screen iPhone detects a fall, it quickly folds the device before it hits the ground to minimize the impact of the ground on the screen.
03
The folding screen of the outbreak also needs to educate the user
Guo Tianxiang said that mobile phone manufacturers have targeted folding screen mobile phones, especially domestic Android mobile phone manufacturers in the case of unfavorable impact on the high-end market, folding screen is not only a product that can be differentiated from Apple, but also to better impact the high-end market and pursue more profits.
"At present, most manufacturers have implemented a dual flagship product strategy, that is, straight board machine + folding screen." Guo Tianxiang further emphasized.
In fact, although folding screen mobile phones have ushered in the rush of mobile phone manufacturers in 2022, it seems that it will take time from the perspective of market penetration and consumer attitudes.
CINNO Research data shows that the current penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones is only about 1%. According to data from Omdia, by 2026, the global shipment of folding screen smartphones will reach 61 million units, with an average annual compound growth rate of 46.6% from 2021 to 2026. But even if the compound annual growth rate is nearly 50%, the penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones will be only 3.6%.
Feifei, who once had the desire to buy folding screen mobile phones, told Ran Dimension that when the wind of folding screens had not yet blown, he did have the idea of buying folding screen mobile phones, "At that time, on the market, manufacturers of folding screen mobile phones seemed to be only Huawei and Samsung, and I was more interested in a folding screen mobile phone from Samsung. ”
Only after thinking about it again, Feifei still gave up starting, "The reason why I didn't buy it in the end is that I read a lot of comments saying, 'The screen of Samsung folding screen is very brittle, not resistant, easy to break'." So I think that seven or eight thousand to buy a mobile phone, in a few days the screen is broken, wouldn't it be a loss. After hesitation, the matter passed. ”
Feifei further said that in 2022, folding screen mobile phones are completely popular in China, and domestic mobile phone manufacturers have launched their own folding screen mobile phones. It's just different from wanting to buy a Samsung folding screen mobile phone at that time, and now Feifei is more and more confused about what kind of group will buy a folding screen mobile phone, "or in other words, I actually think that the folding screen mobile phone does not have a rigid need group, and I don't know what pain points it solves." ”
In this regard, Li Yingtao analyzed that one of the main trends in mobile phone consumer demand is large-screen, but large-screen faces many pain points, the core of which is that it is not easy to carry. The folding screen is precisely a solution that has both a large screen and is easy to carry, in line with the future consumer trend.
Brother Zhuan bluntly said that not only did he taste the "fragrance" of the folding screen mobile phone, but other elderly people in the family also expressed their desire after seeing their father using the folding screen mobile phone, the font and picture were clearer. "So in February this year, I bought two more folding screen mobile phones at one time and gave them to my mother and mother-in-law respectively."
Source/Visual China
Talking about why he did not buy Huawei folding screen mobile phones, Brother Zhuan bluntly said that the price is too expensive, and the other is that the performance and price are very mismatched, and the cost performance is too low. If the price is adjusted or the configuration can keep up, it will also be considered.
As Brother Zhuan said, the price is expensive, which is also one of the reasons for the relatively insufficient penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones at this stage. "If the cost can be reduced, the experience can be upgraded, and consumer recognition is greatly improved, the folding screen will soon become the new mainstream of mobile phone consumption." Li Yingtao added.
Xiang Ligang further added, "In fact, folding screen mobile phones are developing from ultra-high-end products to high-end mobile phones, which means that the price will definitely decrease, consumer acceptance will also increase, and the sales of mobile phones will have a certain driving effect." ”
"There is no doubt that folding screen mobile phones are one of the major trends in future development, and as more and more mobile phone manufacturers join, the intensification of competition will also accelerate the pace of technological innovation and reduce the market price." Ma Jihua, founder of Darry Consulting, stressed that it is too early to assert that folding screen mobile phones will trigger a wave of replacement.
"At least for now, folding screen mobile phones are still niche products, and the scale of use will expand, but it cannot replace straight mobile phones."
*The title image and some of the accompanying pictures are from Visual China.
*In the text, Rising Sun, Feifei, and Brother Zhuan are pseudonyms.
*Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information in this article or the opinions expressed constitute investment advice to anyone.