The market is always easily scared!
This morning, the big guy at the head of the Chinese character suddenly fell straight down, and the "Zhong Special Estimate" suddenly became unfragrant. An authoritative media commentary entitled "Fighting the economy cannot be rushed" has strongly brushed the screen in the market. The reason why the "medium special assessment" in the early stage is fragrant is that the market has previously given a lot of expectations for the role played by this sector in lifting the economy. This comment may have changed the expectations of the market.
In addition, there are two major downsides, which also put some pressure on the market. First, the central bank has a net withdrawal of 173 billion yuan today, and from the perspective of the past market, when there is a net withdrawal of funds, it is easier to trigger the adjustment market; Second, the United States has made another move, and the US President Biden administration added 14 Chinese companies to the red flag list on the 23rd.
So, are these factors enough to reform the trend of the entire market?
Another major incident occurred in Chinese football, and two football association personnel were investigated. According to the discipline inspection and supervision team stationed in the General Administration of Sports, Huang Song, director of the competition department of the Chinese Football Association, is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, and is currently under review and investigation by the discipline inspection and supervision team of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission stationed in the State General Administration of Sport and the Hubei Provincial Supervision Commission. Wang Xiaoping, director of the Discipline Committee of the Chinese Football Association, is suspected of serious violations of the law and is currently under supervision and investigation by the discipline inspection and supervision team of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission stationed in the State General Administration of Sport and the Hubei Provincial Supervision Commission.
13.5 trillion assets fell en masse
In early trading this morning, the Chinese character head with a market value of nearly 13.5 trillion yuan fell collectively, and Sinopec once fell by nearly 3%.
In terms of contribution, these big guys contributed the most to the decline of the index.
So, what exactly happened? The Economic Daily published a commentary this morning titled "Fighting the Economy Cannot Be in a Hurry", which triggered heated discussions in the market.
The commentary pointed out that at present, all parts of the country are going all out to fight for the economy and race against time for development. This spirit of daring to break through and forging ahead is worthy of recognition, but we must also see that only seizing the day is not just looking at the day, and regaining lost time must not overdraft future development. It is necessary to establish a correct concept of political achievements, take on the ideological realm of "success does not have to be in me" and the responsibility of "success must be mine," not only do practical things that the people can see, touch, and benefit from, but also do good things that pave the way, lay a foundation, and benefit the long term for future generations, earnestly implement the work, and make actual achievements that can stand the test of practice, the people, and history.
The commentary believes that at present, the mainland production function is changing, the factor conditions, combination methods, and allocation efficiency of economic development have changed, and the hard constraints are obvious. If you still pursue extensive high-speed development, accustomed to laying out stalls and projects, even if you temporarily increase the speed, it will not last, on the contrary, it will further accumulate and intensify contradictions and problems in development. In this regard, we have learned from the past. In the process of promoting the overall improvement of economic operation, all localities should, in accordance with their own conditions and possibilities, comprehensively implement the new development concept, and at the same time grasp the shortcomings and weaknesses to promote it with key points.
High-quality development is a complex system engineering that requires long-term work. It is necessary to adhere to the complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, unswervingly promote high-quality development, focus on improving the ability of scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement, focus on expanding consumer demand supported by income, investment demand with reasonable returns, financial demand with principal and debt constraints, promote industrial transformation and upgrading and coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of the economy.
To break the "speed cult", we must also maintain the lifeline of statistical quality. In recent years, the quality of statistical data has improved significantly, but there are still phenomena of statistical fraud and data fraud in some regions. It is necessary to increase the intensity of statistical law enforcement, adhere to zero tolerance for statistical fraud, and crack down on statistical fraud as soon as it appears, to ensure that statistical data are true and accurate.
The reason why the "medium special assessment" in the early stage is fragrant is that the market has previously given a lot of expectations for the role of this sector in lifting the economy. This comment may have changed the expectations of the market. Foreign capital also seems to have smelled this change in expectations, and began net selling this morning, and the A50 also went against the market this morning. Yesterday, many major foreign banks also raised their expectations for China's GDP growth in 2023 to more than 6%. The renminbi also fell more than 200 points in early trading today.
Two major headwinds also hit the problem
There are also two major headwinds hitting the market today.
First, the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 7 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 2.00%, the same as before. As 180 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase expires today, a net withdrawal of 173 billion yuan was achieved. In the past, reverse repurchase was a normal operation of the central bank in the open market, and the trading day when the net withdrawal occurred was also more likely to trigger a correction market. This variable does not have much effect on the trend.
Second, the United States has made another black hand. According to French RFI, the US President Biden administration added 14 Chinese companies to the red flag list on the 23rd, forcing US exporters to conduct more due diligence before shipping to these Chinese companies.
According to Deputy Secretary of Commerce Dongraves in a statement after the announcement, "Enforcing U.S. export controls is an important part of protecting U.S. national security." "We are committed to taking all the measures at our disposal to determine the use of advanced U.S. technology around the world." ”
The Commerce Department, which oversees U.S. export controls, also added 18 other entities from Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Bulgaria, Canada, Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Singapore to the list. The source did not mention the details of the charges against the listed Chinese companies.
How big will the impact really be?
So, how big will the impact on the trend of the overall market be? Analysts believe that at present, the above factors will not have a trend impact on the market.
First of all, how the economy develops, whether it is fast or slow, in fact, it must follow certain objective laws. The author believes that the most important thing at present may be two major things: one is to solve the "stuck neck" problem in development, and the other is to expand the market to solve the employment problem. As for fast and slow, there is no need to argue too much, the economy must develop. Only in development can most of the problems that already exist be solved.
Second, there are signs of increasing incremental funding across the market. In recent trading days, the market volume has been continuously amplified, and the transaction amount was close to 500 billion yuan in the first hour of this morning. The two funds and the northbound funds as a whole are still net buyers. This trend should not change so easily.
Third, the structural hotspots of the entire market are long-term. Although the "medium special estimate" is planted today, the artificial intelligence that develops faster than Moore's law has an explosive big news every day or two, and the hype logic of this plate is still deepening and extending. It can be said that this is another track with long slopes and thick snow after the new energy in 2021.
Fourth, and most importantly, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has gone down significantly, as has the downward trend of the dollar index. This is a huge plus for emerging markets as a whole. Valuations are upward in favor of emerging markets.
On the whole, although the market is very hesitant, there is no need to panic excessively.
Responsible editor: Tactical Heng
Proofreader: Zhao Yan