I heard that the Silicon Valley Bank in the Bay Area of California collapsed, but I didn't see it in person. But I've seen Silicon Valley banks that haven't collapsed, stacked on top of startups raising money, becoming feed mills for pigs on the cusp of innovation.
This star bank, which won the Forbes list of the best banks in the United States a few days ago, and enjoyed a rating such as Moody's A, invested to buy treasury bonds, and did not engage in any complicated derivatives, and fell with a bang in a few days, does it feel that something is wrong there?
A reader asked me, "Did Sir ever write something about its fall?" I said "no," and Yi told me, "Sir, just write a little!" I love to read Mr. articles when I go to the toilet. ”
Write and write! Let's start with a real story that I experienced.
A seemingly unrelated little story
One afternoon two years ago, I went to a traditional commercial district in Beijing and stepped into the conference room of a certain investment tycoon.
After enduring a long wait, I saw a man who came tall, his head dyed-yellow, wearing a Golden Triangle drug-like shirt and haggard eyes covered by a brown toad mirror. I saw that he threw his butt into the chair, and a Thomas half-rotated by the trend, and his legs were raised high on the chair in front of him. The whole action was as full of charm as Li Xiaoshuang, which made me suddenly stunned, and I almost wanted to give him a dime reward!
After a few words, after hearing "artificial intelligence" once, he resolutely stood up and interrupted me, and began to make a stolerable remark. I listened to it with the idea that rocket engineers can't talk to crosstalk about what briquettes to use.
But soon the style of painting changed, the more he spoke, the more excited he became, and the more English words he had, and he actually muttered a piece of dirty words that jumped out of the street! Although I understand that a person inevitably resorts to his native language when he is emotional, I am still shocked: we are good at business here, right? Do you think that a mouth full of dirty words represents the liberation of productivity?
I was bored, got up and walked straight out, and left a message for his assistant on WeChat: "Please be respectful of your boss, this is different from his teasing lady in a nightclub!" ”
Later, I learned that a small giant invested by the big guy in the early days had just gone public, and the return was no longer consumed by beating 13 eggs with pancake fruit, so from full of clothes to dirty words in the mouth, I changed to a wild maverick style, let me catch up!
To say that people are crazy is not unreasonable: "Back then, the little giant couldn't raise funds, it was I who helped him onto the donkey, brother, you boldly go forward!" Don't look back! Now, of course, this military medal must have more than half of mine! ”
Is the financial world so professional?
Recall that the investment circle people who have been in contact with this style are quite a bit: the invested companies have made money, and they think that they have stood at the highest point of human civilization since then, holding the magic wand of turning the enterprise into gold, who dares to express the slightest doubt about their cognition, that is, a stumbling block on the road to the development of human civilization, and you will be sprayed with the commanding Chinglish!
In fact, if they squat on the side of the road and smoke a ten-channel to think about it, maybe their brains will be much clearer: you invested in a certain enterprise, and it is one thing for Uncle Ni next door next door to me to buy Moutai stocks more than ten years ago, the money is earned, but Uncle Ni is still Uncle Ni!
There must be people who are not convinced: how is it not a skill to buy profitable stocks? You know, we are a professional investment institution, from pre-investment research, post-investment tracking, layer by layer risk control, which group has few well-dressed Qingbei high-quality students! How many projects we watch each year, how many meetings we have every day, how many times we applaud after meetings, do you know all this?
Of course I don't understand, this is moving out of Silicon Valley Bank: you see, the best bank in the United States, Moody's A rating, etc., those Silicon Valley banks above should understand, right? But after the incident, other investment bigwigs jumped out and said: they bought a large number of US Treasury bonds, but did not hedge any interest rate changes, which is a low-level mistake!
I still don't understand. But Uncle, can you say it sooner next time? Or give Moody's a wake-up call first?
This time, Silicon Valley Bank has torn off the bottoms of the financial circle: the bank on the outlet, the top investment strategy, the luxury management team, it is a low-level mistake to put a kick? Where are all those jargon, financial models, rating agencies dead?
Yes, that's what I mean, don't believe too much in the general professionalism of the financial world.
In fact, big-name investors don't pretend to be forced. A few days ago, someone asked Charlie Munger, how do you and Laoba have a good eye, so long ago saw that BYD can become the leader of electric vehicles? Munger said: Look out for a fart! When we voted for BYD, people were still making mobile phones! Hearing Wang Chuanfu say that he wanted to build a car, I was scared to pee, isn't this jumping into the fire pit! We also flew in to persuade him not to wade through this muddy water, and of course you all know the result - Lao Wang didn't listen to us.
What does Rijin Doujin rely on?
However, after all, in recent years, the world's most profitable industry is finance. You talk about people like a gambling stick that rolls dice at the entrance of the village, but the gambling sticks are all bankrupt, and the average daily gold in the financial circle is blind to you?
To tell a short story: in a large fish tank, a clever goldfish collected data for a long time and used advanced modeling techniques to derive the law of the change of the ocean water level in which he lived - the water level is always constant at night, sometimes the water level changes suddenly during the day, and sometimes it remains unchanged. Why? During the day, someone changes the water!
For capital markets, this is a good analogy. In the past fifteen years, the US stock market has skyrocketed and unicorns have become disasters, do you think you rely on the 996 of the code animals, the PPT of the financial dog? Could it be that the one who changes the water behind is the key? Do you see what the world has put water like since the 08 financial crisis? The boat is drifting higher and higher, is it because of the ability to hold the boat? To feel this visually, let's take a look at the interest rate curve in the figure below that began to completely lie flat in 09!
Typical like the currency circle, Shengsheng has pulled out a new market outside of traditional finance. The billionaires there died with their feet up. The big guy in this line, I don't know whether to cut leeks or really believe, full of "decentralization, smart contracts, meta-universe" these are words that people can't understand, it seems that advanced ideas and technological revolutions have created new wealth. Of course, I admit that these new technologies have great value, but a large part of the money you earn is just a dammed lake filled with dollars.
Therefore, some people in the financial circle, more like the goldfish big brother engaged in data analysis in the fish tank, have been shaking their heads and charging other goldfish water level prediction fees similar to "guarantee you give birth to a boy, give birth to a girl refund"; But one day the owner couldn't sleep at night to change the water, only to find that his own technology and cognition were not as good as the leather pipe in people's hands.
No, the leather pipe that is poured with water on it is broken, even if you buy the safest US Treasury bonds, don't you still die on the beach?
@- @
My friend told me that a big guy named Taleb taught us that banks are poor business models, with limited returns and unlimited risks. All the money that banks have earned for depositors in history adds up to even less than the money they lost!
However, you find that no: the bank does not earn money, and it does not delay the banker to make a lot of money!
Why is that? In fact, the Silicon Valley Bank incident has given us a lot of inspiration, but also exposed another common lie: financial institutions rely on taking risks in exchange for high returns.
The truth is, they are more keen to create risk and profit from it. The financial crisis of 08 years is not that they designed a large number of complex and uncontrollable derivatives, and after they couldn't hold on, they handed it over to the state to pay, of course, that is, the whole people paid for it. This time, the disposal of Silicon Valley Bank cannot escape this number.
Therefore, financial institutions are not trading their own risks for benefits, but using the risks imposed on you to exchange benefits from you! That is to say, you are resigned to your fate, and people are guaranteed by drought and flood. Of course, if you catch up with the big release of water in the past ten years and the market is prosperous, then naturally everyone is happy.
Of course, because of this, some people in the financial circle will be like the yellow hair in the previous story, proficient in their own professional skill - pretending. Only by posing as deep and decisive as a fortune teller, and making you unaware with a mouth full of foreign swear words, can you willingly entrust your wealth to others, right?
Therefore, society is very simple, complex is people, the more pressing the person on the other side, the longer you have snacks, don't you say?
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