Although the first quarter of 2023 is not yet finished, many countries and regions around the world are beginning to be busy with the 2024 election, including the United States and Taiwan. However, due to the current tension in the cross-strait situation, Sino-US relations do not show signs of relaxation in a short period of time, which has aroused the outside world to pay close attention to whether there will be major changes in the mainland's policy toward Taiwan in the future. On the 1st 4th of this month, citing the Taiwan Strait Network, Professor Zhao Chunshan, a well-known expert on cross-strait affairs in Taiwan, clearly mentioned when attending a seminar on cross-strait affairs held by a think tank that the mainland's next Taiwan policy will change in the next four to five years, gradually moving from "opposing independence" in the past to "promoting reunification."
Zhao Chunshan also specifically mentioned the mainland's "two-step" strategy, the first step is to "cold treatment" the Tsai Ing-wen administration before the 2024 general election in Taiwan, while making every effort to avoid interference from external forces, strengthen exchanges between political parties on both sides of the strait, and at the same time expand exchanges and interactions with all sectors of Taiwan society, especially young groups on both sides of the strait. The second step is to take the anti-"Taiwan independence" and the consensus of '92 as the highest cross-strait consensus at this stage after the general election, and take the lead in cross-strait affairs with a more proactive attitude.
Zhao Chunshan
Zhao Chunshan also mentioned that unless Lai Qingde can make a "180-degree turn," even if he is elected, he will not be recognized by the mainland, and the status quo between the two sides of the strait will become more difficult to maintain. As one of the few experts and scholars on the island who has both experience in deeply participating in cross-strait affairs and has personally experienced the changes of the times, Professor Zhao Chunshan's views have indeed hit the pain points and key points of current cross-strait relations. In fact, the biggest obstacle to cross-strait at present is still malicious obstruction from external interference forces, but the people on both sides of the strait have always been in a discourse trap and hostile atmosphere artificially created by the West. In order to eliminate future troubles and also speed up the process of cross-strait reunification, the mainland's policy toward Taiwan must be changed in the future.
The first is that all hopes will no longer be pinned on the blue and green parties, and 2024 will be a watershed. For a long time, the handling of cross-strait affairs has been largely covered by the blue camp forces on the island, and although the consistency and continuity of policies are guaranteed, it has also become the handle used by the green camp forces to attack the Kuomintang's "one family alone." But ironically, the Green Camp came to power and behaved even more badly than the Blue Camp.
The DPP still has a chance to change its mind
The "anti-China defense of Taiwan", which has been shouted for several years, is now avoided by the people on the island. Therefore, it is very necessary to strengthen exchanges with political forces other than the blue and green parties, and at this year's two sessions, we also made it clear that we will create more space for Taiwan businessmen and Taiwan compatriots to develop on the mainland in the future, in order to take the initiative to tear through the information cocoon created by the DPP from the outside. This also means that before the 2024 Taiwan regional leadership election, the two sides of the strait will maintain a relatively stable state. And once after the election, Taiwan is still controlled by the DPP, or after the KMT comes to power, it behaves like the DPP, then there are only two choices left for the Taiwan authorities.
Either they choose to accept the consensus of '92 and take a clear-cut stand together with the mainland to "oppose Taiwan independence," so that the two sides will still have the possibility of re-establishing political dialogue and even political negotiations, and Taiwan's future will still be in the hands of the Taiwanese people themselves. Either they choose to stand on the opposite side of the mainland, which runs counter to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Promoting reunification has entered an irreversible historical stage
Under this option, opposing independence and promoting reunification will be carried out at the same time, and the mainland will certainly have the right to speak and actively promote relevant issues; once there are "Taiwan independence" separatist forces that are stubborn and intend to win the fire on the cross-strait red line, the mainland can only deal a head-on blow. Last week, the mainland also clarified its policy for Taiwan work, and the historical trend of promoting the motherland's reunification is unstoppable.