Recently, the two sessions are being held, and some members have proposed some preferential policies for three children, but why did they not pay attention to the proposal report on the two-child policy?
The current fertility problem is a big concern for each of us, and the state has issued a lot of preferential policies for the second and third children, all in order to alleviate our population problems, but I don't know why, we must emphasize the preferential policies for three children alone. Is it that most people have 2 children, and the pressure to have 3 children is too great?
Without arguing, without doubt, let's take a look at the current fertility situation of our fertile couples:
Population of all ages in China:
Post-30s about 53 million people
Post-40s about 94 million people
Post-50s about 160 million people
Post-60s about 217 million people
Post-70s about 224 million people
Post-80s about 219 million people
Post-90s about 188 million people
Post-00s about 147 million people
Post-10s About 148 million people
There are 32.37 million more men than women
- The above data comes from the Internet.
Let's use the above data to make a rough estimate:
People of childbearing age (post-80s, post-90s, post-00s): = 2.19 + 1.88 + 1.47/10 years = 419.7 million people. (After 10 years is only counted until 11 years, after 11 years it is not the fertile age.) ）
32.37 million more men than women / (total number of post-30s-post-10s 1.45 billion) = 2.23 trillion more men
More males of childbearing age = 0.0223*4.197=9.369 million
Fertile households = (419.7 million - 9.369 million)/2 = 205 million pairs.
Currently had children = 1.47 + 1.48 = 295 million.
Average number of children per family = 2.95/2.05 = 1.44
According to this calculation, the average family on the mainland has less than two children. Further, assuming that a family with 1 child has X, X+2*(2.05-X)=2.95, X=1.15;
That is to say, 115 million for one-child families and 90 million for two-child families. In this way, the three-child policy is encouraging 90 million families, and the two-child policy is encouraging 1.15 families, which does not seem to be a big difference.
The above proves that although many people are complaining about the pressure of having children, they almost have at least one child, and the difference between the number of 1-child families and 2-child families is not large.
From this point of view, the policy often encourages the birth of 3 children, and less publicizes the preferential policy of 2 children, and now it seems that this is not easy to judge whether this should be the case. It just depends on whether the willingness of families with one child to have a second child is stronger, or whether the willingness of a family with a second child to have three children is stronger.
Whether such a calculation result is right or not, if you have better logic, leave a message in the comment area to discuss.