The urban part when the Chinese mouth entered the era of negative growth and decline, the reduction of newborns first impacted, is preschool education, preschool education actually had signs 6 years ago, do you remember in 2016, the comprehensive two-child policy, the number of newborns in 2016 and 2017 rebounded briefly, 17.23 million rebounded to 17.23 million, and then began to fall in 2017, how much it fell, fell to less than 10 million last year, fell below 10 million last year, and will definitely fall below 9 million this year, This year will fall below 9 million, you can see that the 90s was 20 million, after 2010 it will be between 15 million and 1700, from 2017 to the annual decrease of about 2 million newborns per year, what is this 1 million to 2 million, is the source of Chinese kindergarten students Now the decline in fertility rate affects Chinese society, where to look at what, depending on the kindergarten we talk about kindergarten.
kindergarten
I have a classmate who runs a kindergarten, and there are three kinds of kindergartens in China: one is called a public kindergarten, which is run by the government; The second one, called inclusive private parks, turned out to be private, but what, the government told him, to not change the inclusive, to turn inclusive is to set according to the government's price, the government pricing public parks, such as 750 months, you also follow 750 months, the government subsidizes you every month, such as Beijing, Beijing is 750 a month, 750 you also get 750, but I will subsidize 1000 yuan, Beijing is probably at this level, 1000 yuan is not enough, obviously not enough, so it is called inclusive private park; The last kind of what, is that private parks are commercial non-inclusive, in fact, from the year before last to last year private parks commercial private parks have begun to have enrollment difficulties, from the year before last to last year 2021 to 2022, have begun to recruit students, a small number of public parks began to recruit dissatisfaction last year.
What was the situation of public parks before, public parks used to break the head, because cheap and the quality of many public parks is also good, from this year private parks are private, commercial kindergarten competition began to heat up, mutual poaching will come out, in addition to the competition for enrollment The competition for courses is also increasingly fierce and began to roll in, public parks now begin, this year began many urban public parks began to grab the source of students, and then from this year the private parks began to start the first batch of bankruptcy tide this year, probably this is the case.
In this process, the policy is a mess, mess, very, because my classmates in the kindergarten time point is May 2017, May 2017, this is a very critical turning point, the Ministry of Education four departments jointly issued an action plan called the third phase of preschool education action plan 2017 to 2020, this plan proposes to reach 80% inclusive kindergarten coverage by 2020, and then a year later, In November 2018, the State Council issued another opinion on preschool education, deepening reform and standardized development, which once again strengthened the target of 80% of the third phase of the preschool education action plan, and further required cities with a low proportion of public kindergartens to gradually increase its proportion, reaching 50% in principle nationwide in 2020, 50% on the national average, and basically 80% in all provinces.
This is the goal of 50, 80 everywhere began to vigorously build public parks, from 2019 to 2020, the government has successively introduced two supporting measures, 2019 stipulates this regulation is very important, all new community supporting kindergartens, the community to support kindergartens, in 2019 it is stipulated that the community supporting kindergartens, must be done, what public kindergartens or inclusive private kindergartens, it is mandatory to stipulate, this is 2019, to 2020, The Ministry of Education issued a preschool education universal inclusive supervision and evaluation method package, the first three years of the gross enrollment rate of 85% inclusive kindergartens, coverage rate 80% public kindergartens accounted for 50%, these three indicators into the local government assessment system once included in this system, immediately effective is basic, all localities began to set up kindergartens, new kindergartens, expanded kindergartens, expanded public kindergartens began to do what to collect those private kindergartens.
Shandong Linyi its central urban area is called Lanshan District, Lanshan District in June 2020 a total of more than 100 private kindergartens supporting the community, was absorbed by the government, at the same time within two years also built 38 new public kindergartens, increased 14,000 public kindergarten places, the mayor, district mayor personally do the work, the initiative to hand over the 10 large enterprise kindergartens of the kindergarten public praise, in the public kindergarten vigorously new at the same time every year is decreasing, by 2019, 2020, are decreasing, Just talked about the central urban area of Linyi, the data of the Linyi Municipal Health Commission, from 2017 to 2020, the birth population of Linyi fell by 20% every year, Linyi kindergarten faced enrollment difficulties at that time, the reason for the enrollment difficulties was that the number of children was decreasing, kindergartens are constantly reducing one street, originally there were only two public kindergartens, and now they have increased to more than a dozen in one go.
Even if there is a problem of surplus kindergartens in Guangzhou, Guangdong, where the foreign population is concentrated, by 2021, the Ministry of Education and nine departments issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development and Improvement of Preschool Education on the basis of the original 50 and 80, and then put forward a 50 and 85 requirements, by 2025, the national inclusive kindergarten coverage rate will reach 85%, and public kindergartens account for the proportion of kindergartens. To reach more than 50%, continue to require the promotion of capacity expansion, new and renovated public kindergartens, so all localities have promulgated their own 14th Five-Year Preschool Education Plan, Jiangsu Jiangsu to rebuild and expand 1,000 kindergartens, Shandong 600 Chongqing proposed public kindergartens, accounting for 55%, to raise this indicator a little higher.
But in fact, at this time, the number of newborns in China has begun to collapse in an avalanche, Shandong Province, Shandong Province, Shandong Province only 870,000 newborns in 2020, how much lower than in 2016, down by half, down 60%, you look at Shandong, a province with a large population, Jiangsu has begun to have a population decline in 2021, the natural growth rate is negative 1.1, Chongqing, Chongqing in 2022, and the number of births last year fell by 7.87%; This is the first time since 1997 that Chongqing newborns have fallen below 200,000, but kindergartens have been built wildly, which is China's current policy.
The government they only look at what, only look at the upward account, regardless of the situation, a student education policy expert said that he said that he saw that their province's 14th Five-Year Plan requires the continued expansion of kindergarten places, he was very shocked that his provincial private office kindergarten, for two years there have been enrollment difficulties, is still expanding, so in his opinion, due to the decline in fertility, the demand for kindergartens continues to shrink, has been very obvious, not to say that as long as the national birth rate from 2021 to 2025 continues to decline according to population forecast data In this context, the local government still builds and expands public kindergartens according to his assessment indicators, which is very crazy.
So with the reduction of students, this year's first batch of inclusive private parks to close down, why is it because it is not enough, take the example of Beijing, Beijing is 750 inclusive price 750 a month, the government subsidizes 1000 yuan, it is also said, his monthly income, a child's income is less than 2000 yuan, can not earn money, lose money, so use other ways to subsidize him, then you think about it, the current situation is, if the source of students declines, it will go bankrupt, so from 2017 80% The indicators of inclusiveness require that private parks begin to transform.
This transformation makes these private parks very fragile, such a fragile situation, as long as the enrollment declines, it will go bankrupt, it must be like this, and then what is the current practice, what is the current practice, what do many start to do now because they begin to recruit dissatisfied and dissatisfied classrooms vacate classrooms to do what, what to charge for kindergarten, what to collect from two- to three-year-old children, two-year-old three-year-old children were not collected before, and only after the age of three began to collect two- to three-year-old children, and found that the effect was very good, and the kindergarten fee was charged, The government has no restrictions, and can subsidize kindergartens if they collect higher, which is now inclusive kindergartens.
The lifesaver of inclusive private gardens has become such a data, Shanghai Municipal Education Commission data, by the end of last year, more than 50% of kindergartens have opened nursery classes, half of which are public kindergartens, public parks themselves are also doing most of the country's cities, Beijing, Anhui, Shandong have begun to explore what to explore integration, that is, newborns are not counted, may be half a year old, all the way up is to start young children to nursery this line, can it? Some experts believe that kindergartens will not collapse in a large area in the short term, and will slowly shrink, so many people think that the future kindergarten kindergarten is a common and slow trend, is this definitely not right, this is not right.
Why do I think they really don't do their homework seriously enough, what is the reason why the number of kindergartens has not yet appeared extreme phenomena this year are born in 2020, how many newborns in 2020, 12 million newborns born in 2020 began to enter nursery this year, and there are 12 million that is, the number of children enrolled in kindergarten this year is 1.5 million less than last year, is it serious, of course, serious, this is many private kindergartens, and now enrollment is tight, The reason is this, because this year there are 1.5 million fewer people entering the park than last year, but in fact, this is not the most important thing, the most important thing is that starting next year, it will not be a problem of 1 million, a problem of 1.5 million.
How much will fall next year, 2.5 million will fall another 1 million on the basis of 2.5 million in 2023, newborns will fall below 9 million in 2023, why will it fall below 9 million in 2023, because the number of marriage couples in 2022 is only a little more than 7 millionWhat is the concept 10 years ago, 2012 2012 married people, The number of marriages fell to more than 7 million last year, that is, it fell to half in 10 years, and the number of marriages fell by half, so the number of newborns in China this year will fall below 9 million, that is, by 2026, the number of people entering kindergarten will be less than 9 million, then you think about it, you can now see that the number of children entering kindergarten in 2026 is less than 9 million, less than half of 2021, from 2021 to 2026, How long in total, five years, the whole market has shrunk by half, you think about what it's like to have the market size in five years, what it's like, what the industry will become, this industry is shrinking dramatically.
Five years, then you think about another year, another year, China's primary schools will begin to appear kindergarten-like situations, another year, then a few more years is junior high school, junior high school, another three years, is high school, and then you can see the education and training industry, the group is destroyed, but what else is the education and training industry, and the non-profit part, as well as clothing and shoes and hats, and daily necessities and school supplies, step by step will be reduced, of course, the most important thing is that the reduction is what house, the house will decrease, so, China's economy began to show what happened in Japan that many people ridiculed back then, what will happen in China will happen, demand will decrease, this is next year, basically a cliff-like decline, now the government describes the Chinese economy syllogism, first, demand contraction, second, supply shock, third, expected weakening, these three descriptions are correct? This description is basically correct, I think it is basically correct, the description of this syllogism, the next 10 years will be valid, the next 10 years will be valid, that is, the Chinese economy, you can see the prospects of the Chinese economy in the next 10 years, this year should be the best year.