Which country is most likely to break out of civil war in the world in 2023?
The answer is most likely Lebanon.
Sheikh Ahmed Al-Rifai, a sheikh and fierce critic of the Lebanese Allah Party, was recently found dead in northern Lebanon. Opponents of the Allah party then accused the group of carrying out the murder.
Lebanese authorities quickly launched an investigation and arrested the suspect. The suspect was reportedly a relative of the slain Rifai, with whom he had a longstanding animosity.
Lebanon is now a powder keg in the Middle East
This incident shows how tense the situation in the country has become. Had it not been for the swift action of the authorities, the murder of Rifai would have developed into a sectarian conflict.
This time, the authorities saved the day.
The question is, how long can it control the situation?
The obvious answer is that it won't last long.
The situation in Lebanon is unsustainable.
Tensions in Lebanon are so high that the only force preventing a total collapse is the army.
The army commander has been frantically raising money to feed his soldiers.
Last year, Qatar donated $600 million to prevent the disintegration of the Lebanese Armed Forces.
But what next? When this money runs out, who (if any) will be the next donor to pay the army?
Obviously, this situation is not sustainable. Lebanon needs an appropriate State with functioning institutions.
What would happen if we went back to the murder mentioned earlier, assuming that the army and security forces failed in their duties and failed to act and investigate? Of course, there will be sectarian conflict. Nevertheless, the army quickly dispelled the fallacy that the Allah party killed the chief and calmed the situation.
However, even if the investigation concluded that the victim's cousin was the attacker, which was a purely personal matter, sectarian tensions did not completely disappear.
Some posted on social media a photo of the suspect and his son, who was also an accomplice in the murder, showing them participating in the Allah party's commemoration of the death of Imad Mughniyeh, a senior Allah party official. Apparently, these people tried to indirectly link the group to the murders.
Imad Mughniyeh
Lebanon will either reform and establish a functioning State or face chaos. However, chaos in Lebanon will lead to internal alliances and may lead to civil war, which will be very destabilizing in the region. It could also destabilize the EU, as Lebanese risk their lives to try to enter Europe illegally.
Years of turmoil have added to Lebanon's economic woes
In the event of a civil war in Lebanon, it is not even in Israel's interest. While some experts argue that the best way to get rid of the Allah party is to bring the country to its knees, Israel does not need another Gaza on its northern border.
Although the Lebanese civil war is not in anyone's interest, that does not mean that it will not happen.
The Lebanese go to war not because it is in their interest to do so, but because they are threatened.
At present, the Allah Party feels threatened by the growing internal opposition, while the anti-Allah camp feels threatened by the former. That is why the Lebanese parties could be dragged into civil war.