Biden landed in Kiev, and the Russian-Ukrainian gamble kicked off
US President Biden has recently been very high, once people are old, it is easy to be confused, but some people still refuse to admit it, such as Biden, who is 80 years old, saw a balloon in China and ordered the US military to send the most advanced F22 "Raptor" fighters to fight.
No one has to say that what Biden lacks most now is reason, and the US government is also fooled by this old man. On February 20, local time, Biden appeared dramatically in Kiev, and Ukrainian President Zelensky looked at each other with tears and warmly embraced, like a pair of long-lost father and son, and finally recognized each other in the war.
The poisonous cloud over Ohio in the United States has not yet dissipated, Ukraine is still at war, but Biden suddenly appeared in Kiev, naturally attracting the attention of the world, Biden successfully stole the limelight from Putin, who was preparing to deliver the State of the Union address.
The United States is a country that pays a lot of attention to political metaphors, and formalism is rampant, so Biden picked such a coincidental opportunity to visit Ukraine, his purpose is self-evident, purely to suppress Russia. In other words, from the moment Biden landed in Kiev, it represented a big gamble between Biden and Putin, officially unveiled, and Biden's "bet" was the security of the whole Europe, and Putin's "bet" was his political career and the future of Russia.
Originally, the armistice negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were very likely, and China's advocacy of "persuasion and promotion of talks" at the Munich Security Conference was recognized by many countries, even in the United States, Germany and other Western countries, there was also a strong anti-war voice, it seems that peace between Russia and Ukraine has dawned.
However, the Western bloc, represented by the United States, Britain, Poland and other countries, has no intention of armistice negotiations at all, and is bent on killing Russia, unless Putin steps down and the Russian Federation disintegrates, they may be willing to give up.
At the Munich Security Conference, British Prime Minister Sunak has promised Ukraine in front of the world that he will provide them with long-range weapons, wanting Zelensky to fight Russia itself, completely angering Putin and expanding the scope of the war. Some NATO countries are discussing whether to provide fighter jets to Ukraine, and once this plan is approved, I am afraid that Russia will lose air supremacy, and the war situation will be more dangerous and complicated.
Biden's gamble chip is the whole world
And US President Biden, this sudden visit to Kiev, is setting the tone for the just-concluded Munich Security Conference, which is equivalent to declaring war, the United States wants to fight, no one can stop it.
Biden is the president of the United States, of course, to bring something to visit Ukraine, and the aid worth $500 million is used as a souvenir, and the pomp is very full, no wonder Zelensky burst into tears and fell into Biden's arms, and the sensational drama was well acted.
In addition, Biden also went to Warsaw, the capital of Poland, met with the heads of nine NATO countries, and delivered an impassioned speech, without leaving Russia, and all kinds of hats were buttoned on Putin's head.
Putin, who was scolded by Biden, just delivered the first annual State of the Union address after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the Kremlin, saying that the West's purpose is to completely dismember Russia and make Russians suffer, so it is necessary to resolutely promote special military operations and thwart the West's wolf ambitions. Putin stressed that the West cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield.
Previously, the Ukrainian authorities did report some imaginary maps of Eastern Europe, and they wanted to divide Russia's territory after defeating Russia. The new border line is clearly drawn, and everyone in the United States, Britain, Poland and other countries has a share, waiting for American soldiers to drop from the sky to share the cake.
The Estonian prime minister even threatened to transform Russia and "castrate" the Russians, as they did with the Germans after World War II. But it is clear that so far only Russian shells have fallen from the sky of Ukraine, not American soldiers.
Therefore, after Biden and Putin publicly spoke out at the same time, the peaceful achievements of the Munich Security Conference were wiped out, and the contradictions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict became even sharper, and it now adds some new motives, stemming from Western prejudice and hatred of Russia.
Biden and Putin are gambling, if Putin does not stop because there is no way back and Russia cannot afford to lose, then Biden is carried away by interests and has to drive a nuclear country to a corner, so that the Kremlin loses its dignity, until the "Sarmat" missile rains down on the territory of the United States, he may find some sanity. It has to be said that this is a big gamble, and Biden's bargaining chip is the whole world.
Zelensky requested a meeting with China for three reasons
Director Wang Yi has just visited Moscow and was warmly received by the Kremlin, which shows that Putin really has high hopes for China. Obviously, at a time when Russia is completely blockaded by the Western world, it is really valuable that China can withstand the pressure as always and strengthen economic exchanges with Russia.
But before Director Wang Yi finished his visit to Russia, Ukraine threw another olive branch, and Zelensky requested a meeting with China. According to the Russian Satellite News Agency Moscow on February 23, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at a joint press conference with the Italian prime minister: Kiev has proposed to Beijing to hold a diplomat-level meeting through diplomatic channels.
There may be three reasons why Zelensky is wooing China at this time:
First, during the Munich Security Conference, the Ukrainian side saw China's influence, Wang Yi was welcomed in France, Germany, Italy and Hungary, and European countries were very willing to carry out further economic cooperation with China. Zelensky found that China can influence the decision-making of European countries to a certain extent.
Second, Moscow is the last stop on Wang Yi's visit to Europe, and judging from the attitudes expressed by China and Russia in recent years, bilateral relations are very strong, which worries Zelensky. After all, China is the world's largest industrial country, and if Moscow is supported by China, even if NATO and the United States come to the aid of Ukraine, Zelensky is not confident of winning.
Third, on the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, China advocates "persuading peace and promoting talks", and has also promulgated a document entitled "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis" to this end. The first article of this document is to require all parties to respect territorial sovereignty, and Zelensky believes that China's persuasion proposal is beneficial to Ukraine and may persuade Putin to withdraw from the army.
So, Zelensky has every reason to throw an olive branch to China. This is progress, and the West must fully recognize that countries that disagree with the United States are also members of the international community, that they exist in this global village and that their legitimate security concerns should not be ignored.
In fact, to solve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, China's attitude is indeed crucial, and Zelensky is right. However, whether it is China or the West, if you want Russia to stop the special military operation, you cannot adopt the method of fighting violence with violence, otherwise, like the United States and Britain, blindly suppressing Moscow's demands will only make the contradiction more intense.
Why does Russia have to go to war?
To get Putin to stop the war, we must first know why Russia went to war. On February 24, Professor Jin Canrong, deputy dean of the School of International Relations of Chinese Minmin University, said that the reason why Russia launched a special military operation, in addition to blocking NATO's eastward expansion, also had two other crooked ideas, that is, to control Belarus and control Ukraine.
In the nineties of the last century, at the end of the US-Soviet hegemony, the development level of the Soviet Union and the American camp showed a huge difference, the West was thriving, the economy was developed, and the people's living standards were also rising; However, on the Soviet side, for various reasons, its development stagnated and its economy fell into a quagmire, and the Soviet Union at that time often needed to assist other small countries, and they felt that they were too much of a loss. Therefore, the last leader of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin, who is also the leader of Russia, signed a disintegration agreement with Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, and then Eastern Europe changed drastically, and the Soviet Union collapsed.
Russia thought that as long as it put aside those burdens, it could prosper economically like the West, so Yeltsin, then President of Russia, not only frequently showed favor to the United States, but also learned American "shock therapy", and the result was to make a mess of the Russian economy.
The president of Belarus at that time was Lukashenko, who saw that Yeltsin was too crotch-pulling, and signed an agreement with Russia on "Russian-Belarusian integration". Imagine that after the merger of the two countries, Lukashenko may indeed replace Yeltsin as the helm of the new alliance.
Who would have thought that Russian politics would kill a Putin and sit firmly on the Kremlin throne for 20 years, Lukashenko's dream would naturally be shattered, but "Russian-Belarusian integration" is still there, becoming a means for Russia to control Belarus in turn.
Russia thought that it could live a good life, but did not expect that it would not succeed in defecting to the West, but would become a cheap energy supplier to Europe and a dumping ground for Western goods, and its economic development would not advance but retreat.
The decline in the standard of living in a country will naturally lead to the rise of extremist politicians, so the "liberals" in Russia gradually lose power, and the "imperial Russians" rise to become the leading force in the Kremlin. They had only one goal, and that was to restore the Soviet-era territory.
Russia's target is not only Ukraine, but also Belarus
So it is true that Putin launched a special military operation to block NATO's eastward expansion, but there are still two crooked ideas, that is, to control Ukraine and Belarus, and once the Kremlin achieves its goal, other small countries will naturally move closer to Russia.
Because of the existence of the "Russian-Belarusian integration" agreement, Russia and Belarus are easy to come together, local time on February 18, Belarusian President Lukashenko said in a meeting with Putin that the completion of the alliance project of economic integration between Russia and Belarus has reached 80%, which means that the goal of the special military operation has been completed by half, which effectively promotes the process of "Russian-Belarusian integration".
But Putin's advance in Ukraine has suffered great resistance, Western assistance to Ukraine has no end, modern war is about the economy, so the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has lasted for a year, the Russian army is still blocked in the tenth day of the advance, the battlefield is deadlocked.
In order to "persuade peace and promote talks", the West must first abandon the method of solving the problem by violence and exert excessive pressure on Moscow, which will instead fuel the arrogance of the "imperial Russians" and cause an unexpected backlash. And Putin has obviously given up the plan to completely defeat Ukraine, and then it is very likely to occupy the four states of Wudong and then seek negotiations, so this period is the window period to persuade Putin to withdraw from military and Ukrainian territory, and the West must show moderate tolerance to resolve the contradiction.
And if the West insists on confrontation and Putin resolutely will not cede the four states of Wudong, the final outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will be like South Korea and North Korea, a temporary ceasefire, but no truce will be declared.
In short, no matter where the "38th parallel" between Russia and Ukraine is finally drawn, as soon as Russia and the West fight this battle, the ice in northwest China will melt by more than half.
The five Central Asian countries "leaned" to China
To the northwest of China are the five Central Asian countries, which are Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan.
Central Asia has always been under Russia's control, after all, all five Central Asian countries were once members of the Soviet Union, and after the dissolution of the Red Giant, this reverence for the suzerainty was transferred to Russia. But in recent years, as Russia's economy has gradually declined, it can no longer use its interests to maintain relations with the region, so the five Central Asian countries have had to fend for themselves.
These countries, like Russia, are rich in natural resources, such as Kazakhstan, the largest "size", which has proven oil reserves of 18% to 25% of the world, but the economy has not improved, and the people are hungry, which is "holding a golden rice bowl and asking for rice".
Previously, Russia has not allowed other countries to invest in Central Asia, and Central Asian countries can only have close trade ties with Russia, but Russia itself is also a resource exporter, and the two cannot complement each other's advantages, so the economies of these countries have stagnated for a long time. But after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia asked for China, and naturally made an exception for China to contact them.
China has the largest manufacturing industry in the world, and the pain point is that energy, iron ore and other resources are insufficient, and it needs to import a large amount from abroad, especially Australia's iron ore.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has changed all this, Russia has opened its sphere of influence to China, such as Putin's agreement to the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ukraine railway, making Central Asian countries an important part of China's manufacturing resource supply chain, which largely solves the pain points of China's economy.
In addition, the five Central Asian countries are becoming less and less economically connected to Russia, and their governments are becoming more and more anti-Russian, after all, the older generation has withdrawn from the stage, and the reverence for the Soviet Union has disappeared. And there is no closer link in the world than economic cooperation, even if Apple is an American company, because of its huge interests in China, it has to work against Washington and help China, even though Apple CEO Tim Cook seems to be kicked off the board recently.
In short, the five Central Asian countries and China are becoming a community of interests, and they are bound to irrevocably turn to China. The five Central Asian countries will turn to China, not only economically, but also China's Belt and Road Initiative.
In the long run, it will be difficult to resolve the feud between Russia and the West, which greatly guarantees the geopolitical security of northern China, at least the United States cannot contain China by buying Russia, and the enmity between the two can not be resolved with no amount of money.