On the evening of February 7, Eastern time, US President Joe Biden delivered his annual State of the Union address in the House of Representatives. During the one-hour and forty-minute speech, both Biden's own mood and the content of the speech revealed a pure optimism.
In 2022, the United States has experienced the repeated impact of the epidemic, multiple rounds of layoffs in the scientific and technological winter, and the rip-off of the midterm elections, although many Americans, including within the Democratic Party, are not so optimistic about Biden at present, but the veteran Biden still completed his speech at a critical moment of his political future with the most vitality.
For us, the biggest signal from Biden's speech is that 2023 will not be a smooth year for Sino-US relations, but more likely to be the beginning of a lasting Sino-US technological confrontation. Including the United States' regulatory policies for technology giants have finally appeared the dawn of landing, the United States is more active in promoting the export control of allies to China, and so on. The United States is engaged in large-scale strategic mobilization for the coming protracted war between China and the United States.
Image source: CNN
01
Biden's tech two-handed chess
The part of Biden's State of the Union address on technology and China is mainly divided into two sections: domestic and international. The two plates have different points of focus on each other, but they are related to each other. But the logic behind it is the same: to prepare for future long-term technological competition between China and the United States. Therefore, the United States is gradually geopoliticizing scientific and technological affairs and making strategic mobilization for the protracted war between China and the United States. The "two parties", "allies" and "unity" frequently mentioned in the speech are the key and difficult points in Biden's strategic mobilization.
At the domestic level, the United States will strongly push for strong regulatory legislation for tech giants.
The focus of domestic regulatory legislation highlighted in the State of the Union address includes youth protection, targeted advertising, and personal data collection. After more than two years of debating privacy and platform liability, both parties now support narrowing the scope of Article 230 of the Communications Decency Act, including strengthening the accountability of tech companies for content involving children. The extent to which Article 230 will be amended in 2023 should be a point of expectation and concern.
In order to achieve legislative progress, unity and cooperation between the two parties are essential, which is also the main thing that Biden has promoted in the two years since he took office. When Biden gave his speech this time, the speaker seat behind him was sitting Republican McCarthy. Before the speech, Biden shook McCarthy's hand twice and said with a joking tone in his opening remarks: "Mr. Speaker, I don't want to ruin your reputation, but I look forward to working with you." ”
Once the relevant legislation is introduced (judicial practice may be faster than legislation), it will inevitably have an impact on large US technology companies and Chinese companies such as TikTok. In addition to Twitter and Facebook will face further "regulatory crackdowns", Chinese companies are more likely to be the first scapegoats.
TikTok's CEO is preparing to be questioned by the U.S. Congressional Energy and Commerce Committee in March, and on February 1, Gallagher, chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Select Committee on China, still favored a total ban on TikTok's use in the United States. Among the most worrying for Americans are the youth protection, platform responsibilities and data collection issues listed in the State of the Union address.
At the international level, the United States will continue to shape the technological iron curtain on China.
In Biden's words, it is to create a "scientific and technological democratic alliance", that is, to "jam the neck" of our high-tech industry from the aspects of technology, hardware control and industrial substitution. The United States is stepping up its geo-technological offensive against China. The front foot has just reached an agreement with Japan and the Netherlands to restrict the export of chips to China, and the back foot has launched the "Critical and Emerging Technology Initiative" (iCET) with India to seek a partial replacement of China's role in the global supply chain.
In Biden's State of the Union address, there are two priorities for China. One is to strengthen U.S. industrial policy and adjust global supply chains. In his State of the Union address, Biden specifically bragged about the high-paying manufacturing jobs he created for the United States by last year's Chips and Science Act of 2022. But what he failed to mention was that his chip bill specifically required companies with "advanced technology" not to build factories in China.
The other is to unite allies and jointly carry out technology export controls against China. "Let's be clear: winning the race against China should unite us all." That refers to America's European and Asian allies. In 2023, the United States will most likely accelerate the push of more allies to restrict technology and hardware exports to China, weaving a closer geotechnological iron curtain.
Image source: CNN
02
2023: The year of strategic mobilization for a protracted war between China and the United States
The long-term competition between China and the United States will focus on the field of science and technology, and the United States is making strategic mobilization for a protracted war to this end.
In fact, whether it is the supervision and regulation of large domestic technology enterprises or the establishment of the "Democratic Science and Technology Alliance" internationally, it is actually to set up a long-term confrontation with Chinese science and technology. Looking at 2023 alone, Biden will seek to take a more proactive attack on both domestic technology giants and China. On the one hand, he needs to make a difference in the second half of his term, and 2023 is a crucial year. On the other hand, compared with other issues, whether it is science and technology or China, the two parties now have a more consistent consensus.
The first is on the issue of technology giants, regulation has become a trend, and bipartisanship is variable.
Although Biden has been pushing the agenda of strong regulation of science and technology in the past two years since he took office, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the new crown epidemic, inflation and other matters in the past two years have distracted him. Progress on regulatory legislation has been slow, but some bipartisan consensus has been reached, particularly on platform accountability. The precondition for the 2023 legislation remains a compromise with Republicans. But the newly appointed House Speaker, Republican McCarthy, may be a variable given his current ambiguous approach to lobbying companies by many tech giants.
Therefore, in his State of the Union address, Biden repeatedly mentioned the past achievements and future possibilities of a bipartisan compromise, and called on more Republicans to work together to promote technology regulatory legislation.
The global technology giants of the United States, which are regulated and standardized, will become an important weapon for the United States in this protracted confrontation between science and technology. On the one hand, the introduction of regulatory policies is conducive to these technology giants to assume social responsibilities and create greater social value, while avoiding the situation of emphasizing commerce over publicity. This will make them more viable and internationally competitive in the long-term technological confrontation in the United States. On the other hand, the introduction of strong regulatory policies will also become a credential for US companies or politicians to attack Chinese technology companies in the United States, and also win some breathing space and market for US technology companies.
Second, on the issue of science and technology with China, the United States is seeking consensus and help from its allies.
On the China issue, the internal opinions of the United States are basically unified, and there is only a difference between the two parties that is ruthless and more ruthless. Therefore, the key is how to win over the international allies of the United States, set up technology export controls against China, and form and improve the geopolitical and technological iron curtain that the United States is currently advancing. During the Trump era, negotiations between the United States and its allies paid more attention to the economic interests of the United States, resulting in greater differences in various fields. Biden's rise to power is obviously political interests, especially on the issue of China, the United States does not hesitate to cede some interests and rights, but also to win the support of allies.
Mainly export restrictions and supply chain adjustments for chips and semiconductors. On the one hand, the United States needs to grasp the upstream countries and regions of the Netherlands, Japan, and Taiwan in the research and development of chip technology and international supply chains, and on the other hand, India is a product processing and manufacturing country in India and the middle and downstream countries of the international supply chain. The continued improvement of export restrictions, alliances and supply chain adjustments will continue.
2023 is a critical year for the United States to shape the Iron Curtain, and Biden will lure more allies into the partnership with economic interests and common threats. A complete, well-formed tech curtain for China may emerge within a few years.
Image source: from the Internet
In the face of the protracted war of science and technology and the iron curtain of geoscience and technology in the United States, how China can do a good job in strategic mobilization and improve layout preparations is quite critical.
First, we need to know what the impact of the Iron Curtain offensive in the United States will be. Internationally, we may soon enter a situation of relative technology and hardware isolation, including the United States, Japan, the Netherlands and other countries to the mainland technology exports will be greatly reduced, especially involving cutting-edge technology in the industry. Second, some multinational companies will consider adjusting their manufacturing and processing plants in China and adjusting their global supply chain structure, partly due to the impact of the epidemic and partly due to the impetus of the United States. Of course, this process is not achieved overnight, and it will take 5-10 years with a high probability.
Therefore, one is the external state, we must fully release the attractiveness and international influence of the Chinese market.
Create a better innovation and business ecology, and give full play to the advantages of the world's first demand market. Promote high-level opening up, introduce more international advanced elements, promote domestic and international dual circulation, and build a new development pattern.
The meaning behind this is self-evident: to create certainty for market players in the uncertain future. The other is the inside, and the iron must be hard by itself. Strengthen the strategic layout and research investment in basic research and frontier fields, overcome basic problems in the process of scientific and technological development, and take the road of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement. A key advantage for the United States now is our advantage in chips and other cutting-edge technologies, which is why they are pursuing technology and industry alliances. And we only have one path to choose, that is, to break through the "stuck neck" by ourselves. Truly achieve the autonomy of the industrial chain and enhance the safety initiative of development.