In January 2022, US President Joe Biden said at a press conference commemorating the first anniversary of his administration that, based on his "reliable sources," he believed Russia would launch a military operation against Ukraine in the near future.
At that time, Biden's bold prediction aroused suspicion from the outside world, after all, although there is a border dispute between Russia and Ukraine, it is more restrained than other areas with a strong smell of gunpowder.
US President Joe Biden
However, it turns out that the capabilities of the US intelligence community cannot be underestimated. Just one month later, Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the Russian army to launch an offensive against Ukraine.
So, how exactly does the United States judge whether Russia "dares to fight Ukraine"? How to accurately estimate the risk of the outbreak of war? In fact, this should not be seen by how loud the mouth is, but by how much the following work has been done.
Military exercises: a pretext for war that can be used both in advance and retreat
"Soldiers, the great affairs of the country, the place of death and life, the way of survival and death, must not be ignored." As early as more than 2,000 years ago, in the "Art of War" of Sun Tzu, the famous military expert Sun Wu had insight into the essence of war -
This is the most fierce form of direct confrontation between countries, and it is also the most uncontrollable and risky decision-making option. For those in power, war is a worst-case scenario in any case.
Military scientist Sun Wu
From the outbreak of contradictions between the two countries to the outbreak of war between the two countries, in the process of gradually intensifying and escalating contradictions, countries must find a means to express their own positions, which not only has extremely high deterrent power, but also has excellent flexibility, and can be "cold treated" decently under the condition of convergence of the other side.
Obviously, military exercises are such a pretext for war.
Russian troops conducting training
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Russian army was massively assembled on the Russian-Ukrainian border under the pretext of military exercises, and a large number of heavy equipment was transferred under the attention of military satellites around the world.
For Putin, his intentions are not difficult to guess: this is Russia's pressure on the Ukrainian authorities, as long as the Ukrainian authorities continue to follow the pro-American line that disappoints Russia, these Russian troops who are exercising can logically upgrade the exercises to actual combat.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
There is no doubt that when military exercises are held on their own territory, other countries have no excuse for interference. Assuming that the Ukrainian authorities succumb to the pressure and change their minds, Putin can easily end military exercises and achieve the effect of "surrendering without a fight".
Even if the Russian army is determined to send troops, it can use the "smoke bomb" of military exercises to cover up its offensive objectives and achieve the effect of making the Ukrainian army defenseless.
Blood mobilization: a red flag for war
However, since Russia fired a "smoke bomb" in the name of border military exercises, making many countries mistakenly believe that the Russian army would not attack Ukraine, how did US intelligence penetrate the fog to detect the Russian army's war intentions?
The answer is that the Russian army has prepared far more blood than the reserve required for military exercises, and this abnormal large-scale mobilization of blood reserves has made the Americans find something suspicious.
Russian soldiers
So far, human biotechnology technology does not have the ability to develop artificial blood. In other words, the only way to get enough blood to treat a large number of wounded people is to prepare blood from the social side and mobilize people to donate blood.
In a war situation, the blood requirement of a large number of wounded is almost astronomical. According to data from Arteriocyte Biotechnology in the United States, every wounded person wounded in the battlefield consumes an average of 2,400 milliliters of blood.
The total amount of blood of an adult is only about 4000~5000 ml. During the 1991 Gulf War, the U.S. military's medical and emergency services prepared at least 42,000 liters of blood for the wounded.
U.S. Army Troops Blood Bank
Moreover, as a special strategic material, blood is very difficult and expensive to store, even if it is stored in professional cold storage, there will be some deterioration and expiration after 6 months.
Therefore, in most cases, if a country's decision-makers make the decision to start a war, the country will inevitably carry out a social mobilization of blood donation before the war, and this mobilization will even be coercive.
It is worth mentioning that the best scene to observe the mobilization of blood donation in society is the campuses of major universities.
On the one hand, college students are generally in good health and have the ability to provide a large amount of healthy blood;
On the other hand, the mobilization acceptance of college students is also among the best among all levels of society, and the mobilization resistance is relatively small. Therefore, if widespread blood donation mobilization is observed on university campuses, it may be a red flag for war.
Russian students donating blood
Proportion of military expenditure: a rehearsal for entering a state of war
If observing the mobilization of blood donations is to judge the risk of war from a micro perspective, then a country's military expenditure as a proportion of GDP is undoubtedly a macro perspective to judge whether the country is about to enter a state of war.
Brutal Ukrainian battlefield
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022, Russia's military expenditure in 2020 was $61.7 billion, accounting for 4.2% of the country's GDP; In 2021, Russia's military spending was $65.9 billion, or 4.1% of the country's GDP.
In contrast, when Russia was in the first decade of the 21st century, which was the fastest economic development, its military expenditure accounted for a long time between 2.1~3.0%.
Generally speaking, when military spending reaches more than 10% of total GDP, a country has effectively entered a state of war.
Therefore, when Russia increases its military spending significantly before war breaks out, it can actually be seen as Russia preparing for its own war plan. After all, war is somehow a "money-burning operation."
Russian troops are massed
According to the US "Washington Post", the KH-101 cruise missiles used by the Russian army in the Ukrainian battlefield are sold for up to $13 million each, and even the old KH-59 missiles cost up to $500,000 each.
In addition, the flight cost of 1 Su-35S fighter jet is as high as $40,000 per hour, and the flight cost of 1 Su-27SM is also more than $25,000 per hour.
The Russian army repairs missiles
Therefore, if a country is determined to start a war, it must need real money to support the consumption cost of a large number of high-tech weapons, which are difficult to hide in terms of GDP and military expenditure.