CREDIT: ANGUS MORDANT/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
Covid will never go away. But the pandemic will end one day. Right?
For many, wearing masks, practicing social distancing, and washing hands frequently have become traumatic past tenses that they are reluctant to relive.
Officials at the World Health Organization expect the global health emergency to end this year. The relevant committees are scheduled to meet on 27 January to discuss the topic.
Three years on, are we still in the midst of a pandemic? There is no agreed definition of the terms "pandemic" and "endemic", but the rough difference is that the former refers to a disease outbreak that affects the whole world, and the latter refers to an outbreak that affects a specific region, such as a country. Due to the lack of consensus on the definition, it is not possible to definitively assert whether the pandemic is still ongoing. People's opinions are different and divergent opinions.
Under what circumstances can we agree? Can we still agree?
"Unfortunately, 'pandemic' is actually more of a political and sociological term than a scientific term." Dr. Jay Varma, chief medical adviser at the Kroll Institute, a New York-based think tank, said in an interview with Fortune. Varma spent 20 years at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and was the lead architect of New York City's coronavirus response before joining the institute in March.
Varma said that "when society or government comes to a point in time that is willing to accept a certain number of deaths per day," the pandemic becomes endemic — at least in the courts of public opinion.
"It's certainly not up to scientists to decide. People in public health will say it's unacceptable. He said.
Dr. Michael Moerson, a visiting professor at New York University's School of Global Public Health, echoed Varma's comments, telling Fortune that the public has accepted the idea that the pandemic is over, but at the cost of a large number of casualties.
Merson acknowledged that the situation is better now than it was at the beginning of 2020. However, he said, the coronavirus "still causes unacceptable numbers of deaths to me." Murson added that today's acceptance of the death toll — hundreds of thousands of deaths each year in the United States alone — is "disturbing."
Now is especially not the time
Many public health experts believe that now is not the time to declare the pandemic over. The reason is that China recently lifted its "zero" policy. In addition to China, the spread of the formidable variant XBB.1.5, known as "Kraken," is soaring in the United States. XBB.1.5 is an important reason for the recent increase in hospitalizations in the northeastern United States. As the strain expands westward, the same momentum could emerge in other parts of the United States. Other countries around the world may eventually find themselves going through similar experiences.
Varma said the climb of XBB.1.5 "is just a reminder that as much as people are hoping that this pandemic is over, it is not over." He added: "The performance of the virus does not seem to want the pandemic to end. ”
However, Dr. George Benjamin, president of the American Public Health Association, said in an interview with Fortune that it may be time to end the state of emergency. The American Public Health Association is a 150-year-old organization of public health professionals that promotes health and hygiene equity in the United States.
"It will definitely end at some point." Referring to the U.S. federal public health emergency on Jan. 10, he said, "I think we're fast approaching this moment." ”
"Policymakers don't want to pay for it anymore; People don't want to pay attention to it anymore. "It's about human behavior." If everything is an emergency, nothing is an emergency. ”
But he warned that declaring the end of the emergency does not mean that the pandemic is over.
"That doesn't say anything." Benjamin said. "Even though we have not declared a public health emergency, we are still experiencing the HIV pandemic."
How to get out of the pandemic
Dr. Bruce Lee, a professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York School of Public Health, told Fortune that there are several widely accepted ways out of the pandemic.
One of them is to wait for the global level of new coronavirus infections to fall adequately. At this point, the virus may develop a true seasonal pattern, similar to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza, with few cases in the summer and a surge in the winter. Alternatively, coronavirus levels may fall to some extent to a prolonged "high plateau," with cases at relatively high levels throughout the year.
Bruce Lee believes that the transition to the latter scenario may be underway. Spikes in cases are not as high as they were in the early stages of the pandemic. The trough between the peaks is also not as low as before, and the coronavirus pandemic may exist in the future in this endemic pattern - the level of virus transmission has remained high.
Bruce Lee says seasonal patterns are more favorable.
"We don't want to be too stable throughout the year." "This situation is more difficult to manage than seasonal transmission," he said. ”
Like a big cold/flu?
As the U.S. remains in the midst of a triple pandemic, RSV, and flu, public health officials are warning people with fever and discomfort not to assume they have the flu but to get tested for the coronavirus. Experts say it is currently almost impossible to distinguish between the two based on symptoms.
The above realities have also fuelled the debate over the legitimacy of the pandemic. If for some people, there is no difference between the new crown and the flu or even a cold, how can the new crown be called a pandemic?
It's reasonable to ask this question, but the answer is simple: cold viruses rarely cause death, and even flu doesn't have as high a death rate as Covid.
"Psychologically, I'm concerned that the public is gradually coming to terms with the current situation and thinking that the pandemic is over, despite the fact that we have 250,000 to 300,000 deaths a year, far more than flu deaths," said Murson of NYU. ”
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the flu last season killed about 5,000 Americans. Of course, this year's flu has been relatively mild due to the precautions people have taken against the coronavirus pandemic. But flu deaths typically run into the tens of thousands a year, and the coronavirus is hundreds of thousands. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the coronavirus has killed nearly 1.1 million Americans. Influenza kills fewer than 50,000 people.
While the public and many public health experts remain divided on the pandemic, Bruce Lee believes that things are getting better.
In 2020, many public health experts predicted that the pandemic would last about two-and-a-half to three years, comparable to the 1918 pandemic and other outbreaks, such as the smallpox epidemic in Japan in 735-737, the Black Death and the plague in Italy in 1629-1631.
"Compared to our initial expectations, the actual situation is more or less in line with the predictions at the time, of course, the 'more' part is a little more." Bruce Lee said, "This suggests that 2023 could be a major turning year. We see the right trend. (Fortune Chinese Network)
Translated by Agatha
At Fortune Plus, netizens have expressed many in-depth and thoughtful views on this article. Let's take a look. You are also welcome to join us and share your ideas. Other hot topics today:
Check out the wonderful view of "Azvudine film successfully included in medical insurance with 11.58 yuan negotiation"
Check out the wonderful view of "Guangzhou population infection rate exceeds 85%"
