Close-up of phosphate ore, from Visual China
On January 18, Chuanheng shares (002895. SZ) disclosed the performance forecast, it is expected that the company's profit in 2022 will be 700 million yuan to 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.34% to 131.13%, and the net profit after deduction is expected to be 710 million yuan to 860 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.72% to 150.39%; Basic earnings per share were 1.42 yuan/share -1.73 yuan/share.
Chuanheng Co., Ltd. said that the main reason for the rapid growth of performance is the increase in the sales price of the company's chemical products and phosphate ore, the increase in operating income, and the year-on-year increase in the gross profit margin of chemical products and phosphate ore. It is reported that the company's products mainly include feed grade calcium dihydrogen phosphate, monoammonium phosphate and phosphate ore, and the corresponding revenue of the three major products in 2021 accounted for 41.02%, 25.55% and 12.22% respectively.
Li Xinyan, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the titanium media APP: "In the short term, near the Spring Festival, most phosphate mines in Hubei and Sichuan in China have suspended mining, some phosphate mines in Guizhou have suspended mining, supply has declined, the supply in the field is tight, there is no obvious fluctuation in demand, and phosphate ore prices are mainly sorted out." After the Spring Festival, phosphate mines gradually resumed mining, and it is expected that the phosphate ore market will continue to advance steadily under the support of downstream demand. ”
The price of phosphate ore and other products rose sharply, and the company's performance doubled
Looking back at the trend of phosphate ore and other products in 2022, the price of phosphate ore has soared from about 620 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year, maintaining a high of nearly 1,100 yuan / ton in August and September, and still maintaining around 1,020 yuan / ton in November and December.
Regarding the medium and long-term trend of phosphate ore, Li Xinyan analyzed the titanium media APP: "From the supply side, the early construction period of phosphate mine production is long, the speed of new production capacity is slow, and some large mining enterprises intend to control foreign sales, and the market supply may remain tight." From the demand side, phosphate fertilizer is the main downstream of phosphate ore, and the high prosperity of global agriculture has a certain support demand for phosphate fertilizer, and the demand for phosphate fertilizer for phosphate ore may remain stable. ”
"In addition, benefiting from the rapid development of domestic new energy, phosphorus-based new materials continue to increase, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate has risen rapidly, becoming a new demand growth point for phosphate ore." On the whole, the supply and demand structure of phosphate ore is tightening, and the price may remain in a high range. The above analysts said.
In terms of calcium dihydrogen phosphate, the price of about 3,700 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2022 soared all the way to a high of 6,100 yuan / ton, and after rushing high in June, it fluctuated all the way down, and maintained the price of 4,000 yuan / ton at the end of last year, which is still a certain degree of increase compared with the end of last year.
For monoammonium phosphate, business analysts said that the market of monoammonium phosphate in 2022 is generally good. Affected by favorable factors such as tight supply and cost boost, prices in the first half of the year showed an overall upward trend. In the second half of the year, due to sluggish demand, the price of monoammonium phosphate began to fall back. It started rising again in October. It is expected that the monoammonium phosphate market will still have room to rise in 2023.
Industrial chain layout, the annual production capacity of phosphate ore is nearly 3 million tons
From phosphate ore to new energy materials such as lithium iron phosphate, Chuanheng has opened the industrial chain layout and effectively resisted the risk of industry cyclical fluctuations. In 2021, Fulin Mining, the company's holding subsidiary, has completed the acquisition of Xinqiao phosphate mine and Jigongling phosphate mining rights and related assets, and Fulin Mining has held three mining rights: Xiaoba phosphate mining rights, Xinqiao phosphate mining rights and Jigongling phosphate mining rights. The company's own phosphate ore can meet the production needs and export the surplus phosphate ore to improve profitability.
According to data from Guohai Securities, the company's existing phosphate ore production capacity is nearly 3 million tons/year, the production capacity under construction is 2.5 million tons/year of Jigongling phosphate mine and 5 million tons/year of the shareholding company Tianyi Mining. It is reported that after the change of mining rights in June last year, the total resource reserves of phosphate ore within the quasi-mining standard range of the Xiaoba phosphate mine were 30.0784 million tons, and the total resource reserves of phosphate ore within the extended boundary elevation range were 17.6569 million tons.
From the perspective of the downstream of the industry, the company continues to promote the transformation of new energy. Chuanheng Co., Ltd. has signed cooperation agreements with the people's governments of Fu'an and Weng'an, investing a total of 17 billion yuan to lay out new energy materials such as iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate. In the long term, 1.6 million tons/year of iron phosphate for batteries, 200,000 tons/year of battery-grade iron phosphate, 20,000 tons/year of lithium hexafluorophosphate and 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production lines can be built.
In September last year, the company's Hengyue Xinneng 100,000 tons/year battery iron phosphate project has been successfully put into operation. In addition, the company actively promotes the 200,000 tons/year semi-water-dihydrate wet phosphoric acid and deep processing project in Guangxi Pengyue, of which the wet phosphoric acid plant has been put into operation on August 31.
Guohai Securities analysts in the research report analyzed that the company's ore body integration advantages are obvious, and will benefit from the rapid landing of new energy projects, and it is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent in 2023 and 2024 will be 1.185 billion yuan and 1.791 billion yuan respectively.
(This article was first published on the titanium media APP, author| Zhang Haixia)