Source: China Economic Network
In 2022, all regions and departments will conscientiously implement the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increase macro-control efforts, respond to the impact of unexpected factors, focus on expanding domestic demand, and strengthen the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices of important livelihood commodities and energy. Prices in the consumer sector rose moderately throughout the year, while prices in the production sector fell.
First, prices in the consumer sector rose moderately
The CPI growth rate showed a trend of first expanding and then falling. In 2022, the national CPI rose by 2.0%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over 2021. In terms of quarters, the first, second, third and fourth quarters rose by 1.1%, 2.3%, 2.6% and 1.8% year-on-year, respectively, and the increase showed a trend of expansion and then decline. On a monthly basis, in January and February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival, the CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year; Under the combined effect of factors such as the multi-point spread of the domestic epidemic, the rise in energy and pork prices, and the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase in CPI began to expand in March, rising by 2.7% in July; The increase fell slightly in August and expanded to 2.8% in September; Affected by factors such as the decline in demand after the holiday and the high comparison base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate in October and November fell to 2.1% and 1.6% respectively. Near the Spring Festival in December, the growth rebounded to 1.8%.
Food prices fluctuate greatly. In 2022, food prices increased by 2.8% from a 1.4% decline in 2021, affecting the CPI by about 0.51 percentage points. On a monthly basis, the year-on-year change range of each month is between -3.9% and 8.8%. Among them, pork prices have bottomed out since March, rising 51.8% year-on-year in October, and the increase rate has fallen in November and December, with an average annual decline of 6.8%, a decrease of 23.5 percentage points compared with 2021, affecting the CPI by about 0.11 percentage points; driven by the upward trend of pork prices, poultry meat prices have also gradually increased, with an average increase of 4.0% throughout the year; Due to the low base in the same period of last year, the prices of fresh fruits and eggs rose by 12.9% and 7.5% respectively, affecting the CPI by about 0.28 percentage points; affected by the continued high international food prices, the domestic edible vegetable oil, flour and beans prices rose by 6.9%, 6.2% and 4.6% respectively, affecting the CPI by about 0.08 percentage points.
Energy prices rose at a higher rate. In 2022, energy prices will rise by 11.2%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over 2021, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.80 percentage points, accounting for 40% of the total increase in CPI. On a monthly basis, most months increased by more than 10.0% year-on-year, and fell at the end of the year. Among them, affected by the rise in international crude oil prices, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 21.2%, 23.1% and 17.7% respectively, an increase of 3.7, 3.9 and 5.7 percentage points respectively over 2021, affecting the CPI by about 0.75 percentage points; the price of other fuels such as residential coal rose by 5.1%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points over 2021; the price of other motor energy such as automobile natural gas increased by 5.5% from a decrease of 0.1% in 2021.
The core CPI trend is stable. In 2022, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.9%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over 2021, affecting the CPI by about 0.64 percentage points. Month-by-month, the year-on-year increase in each month is between 0.6% and 1.2%, and the increase changes are small, and the operation is relatively stable. Among them, the price of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose slightly, with an average increase of 0.6% for the whole year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over 2021. Among industrial consumer goods, the prices of pipes, air conditioners, other housing decoration materials and bicycles rose by 4.2%, 3.6%, 3.6% and 3.2% respectively, affected by the rise in raw material prices. Under the influence of the epidemic, service consumption demand was weak, and service prices increased by an average of 0.8% throughout the year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points lower than in 2021. Among services, prices of household services and medical services increased steadily, rising by 2.7% and 0.8% respectively, both the same as in 2021; The epidemic affected travel, with hotel accommodation and attraction ticket prices falling by 1.7% and 1.0% respectively, both of which increased in 2021.
Second, the price increase in the production field has fallen
PPI turned from rising to falling year-on-year. In 2022, the national PPI will rise by 4.1%, down 4.0 percentage points from the previous year. In terms of quarters, the first, second and third quarters increased by 8.7%, 6.8% and 2.5% year-on-year, respectively, and decreased by 1.1% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate fell quarter by quarter and turned down in the fourth quarter. On a monthly basis, affected by the higher comparison base in the same period of the previous year, the year-on-year increase fell from 9.1% in January to 6.1% in June; After entering July, the rate of decline accelerated, with year-on-year increases of 4.2%, 2.3% and 0.9% in July, August and September, respectively; In October and November, under the action of the high base, the year-on-year decline turned from rising to falling, both falling by 1.3%; In December, the year-on-year decline narrowed to 0.7%.
The difference between the price increase of means of production and means of subsistence has narrowed. In 2022, the price of production materials will rise by 4.9%, down 5.8 percentage points from the previous year; the price of living materials will rise by 1.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous year. The price increase of means of production was 3.4 percentage points higher than that of living materials, and the difference was 6.9 percentage points smaller than that of the previous year, which to a certain extent reduced the cost pressure faced by the middle and downstream industries. Among the means of production, the price of extractive industries rose by 16.5%, the price of raw materials by 10.3%, and the price of processing industries by 1.5%, down 17.9, 5.5 and 5.1 percentage points respectively from the previous year. Among the means of living, the price of food rose by 2.7%, and the price of general daily necessities rose by 1.6%, an increase of 1.3 and 1.1 percentage points respectively over the previous year; clothing prices increased by 1.8% from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous year, and the price of durable consumer goods increased by 0.1% from a decrease of 0.6% in the previous year. It needs to be noted that although the price increase of living materials has expanded, it is a moderate rise, the mainland is a large manufacturing country, the production capacity and output of living materials products are abundant, and the possibility of a sharp rise in prices in the later period is unlikely.
Input price transmission affects the price fluctuations of related domestic industries. In 2022, the prices of international crude oil, natural gas, copper and other commodities have fallen from high levels, and the prices of oil, non-ferrous metals and other related industries with a high degree of correlation with imported commodity prices in the second half of the year have significantly decreased year-on-year. From June to December, the year-on-year price growth rate of oil and gas extraction industry fell from 54.4% to 14.4%, and the oil, coal and other fuel processing industry fell from 34.7% to 10.1%. In August, the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from rising to falling, and by December it had fallen for five consecutive months. In 2022, the price of oil and gas extraction industry rose by 35.9%, the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry rose by 23.6%, and the price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 5.4%, down 2.8, 4.6 and 17.3 percentage points respectively from the previous year.
The results of energy supply and price stabilization have been remarkable. The advanced production capacity of coal and other industries has been released in a stable and orderly manner, the intensity of increasing production and supply has increased, the output has continued to increase, and the market supply has improved. The year-on-year price increase in coal mining and washing fell from 51.3% in January to 8.6% in August. In September, the year-on-year decline turned from an increase to a decrease of 2.7%; October and November decreased by 16.5% and 11.5% respectively; The base was lower in December, narrowing the decline to 2.7%. From the perspective of the whole year, in 2022, the price of coal mining and washing industry will increase by 17.0% year-on-year, an increase of 28.1 percentage points lower than the previous year. However, it should be noted that although the current coal price has fallen, it is still at a high level, and the pressure on energy products to stabilize prices is still great. In the next stage, it is necessary to continue to consolidate the results of the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, continue to increase production and supply, standardize market order, combine price stability with helping enterprises to bail out, and effectively boost the confidence of market entities.
(Author: Wang Youdong, Director of the Department of Urban Socio-Economic Survey, National Bureau of Statistics)