Source: China Economic Network
In 2022, in the face of the impact of unexpected factors in economic operation, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments will efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, promote the effective promotion of consumption policies, continue to maintain a recovery momentum in the consumer market, develop rapidly in new consumption patterns, continue to release consumer demand for green upgrades, increase the growth of essential commodities, and increase the proportion of county and township markets. The long-term trend of consumer market development has not changed.
First, the consumer market was significantly disrupted by the epidemic throughout the year, and the decline in market sales narrowed in December
The market size is close to the level of the previous year. In 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods will 439733 billion yuan, down 0.2% from the previous year; Among them, retail sales of goods increased by 0.5%, and catering revenue decreased by 6.3%. The frequent outbreak of the epidemic has a greater impact on the recovery of the consumer market. In terms of quarters, in the first quarter, market sales increased by 3.3% year-on-year under the influence of the epidemic in March; In the second quarter, affected by the epidemic in Shanghai and other places, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 4.6% year-on-year; In the third quarter, with the implementation of a series of pro-consumption policies, market players accelerated the resumption of business and market, and the growth rate of market sales turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5%; In the fourth quarter, the rebound of the epidemic once again had a certain impact on the consumer market, and the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 2.7% year-on-year.
The decline in market sales narrowed in December. With the implementation of various policies to stabilize the economy and optimization and adjustment measures for epidemic prevention and control, market sales have improved. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 1.8% year-on-year, a decline of 4.1 percentage points from November. Among them, retail sales of goods fell by 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from November; retail sales of automobiles above designated size increased by 4.6%, compared with a decline of 4.2% in November.
Second, new consumption patterns have developed steadily, and physical retail continues to recover
Online consumption is growing rapidly. With the mature application of mobile Internet technology and the continuous improvement of logistics and distribution systems, the trend of online shopping as the growth power source of the consumer market continues to consolidate. In 2022, online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.2% over the previous year; Among them, food goods increased by 16.1%, wear goods increased by 3.5%, and used goods increased by 5.7%. The proportion of online retail sales of physical goods in the total retail sales of consumer goods was 27.2%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points over the previous year.
Retail sales of goods in physical stores increased slightly. The digital transformation and upgrading of the traditional retail industry continues to advance, consumption scenarios and consumer experience continue to expand and improve, and the retail sales of physical stores maintain growth. In 2022, the retail sales of physical stores above designated size increased by 1% compared with the previous year. Among them, the retail sales of convenience stores and supermarkets with more concentrated supply of daily necessities increased by 3.7% and 3% respectively, while the retail sales of professional stores and specialty stores with relatively large consumption of quality upgrading increased by 3.5% and 0.2% respectively. However, the retail sales of department stores with a large impact of restricted flow and a high degree of brand homogenization fell by 9.3%.
Third, the recovery of rural markets is better than that of cities and towns, and the consumption potential of counties and townships has been further tapped
Sales in rural markets have recovered better than in towns. In 2022, retail sales of urban consumer goods decreased by 0.3% compared with the previous year, and retail sales of rural consumer goods were basically the same as the previous year. On a quarterly basis, rural market sales performed better than urban sales in the three quarters of the year. In the first quarter, the growth rate of retail sales of rural consumer goods was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of urban areas, and the decline in retail sales of rural consumer goods in the second quarter and fourth quarter was 0.6 and 0.7 percentage points smaller than that of urban respectively.
The proportion of the county and township market has increased. The rural market system has been gradually improved, coupled with the continuous growth of rural residents' income, the county and township consumer markets, including towns and rural areas, have been developed, and the market proportion has increased. In 2022, the proportion of retail sales of consumer goods in counties and townships, including townships and villages, will be 38.1% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous year.
Fourth, the growth of basic living commodities is good, and the consumption demand for green upgrading continues to be released
Essential goods sold well. In 2022, retail sales of goods will increase by 0.5% over the previous year, and nearly 50% of the 18 categories of commodity categories above designated size will achieve positive growth. Sales of food and Chinese and Western medicines grew rapidly. In 2022, the retail sales of grains, oils, food, beverages and Chinese and Western medicines above designated size increased by 8.7%, 5.3% and 12.4% respectively over the previous year, and the growth rate was 6.8, 3.4 and 10.5 percentage points higher than that of units above designated size.
Retail sales of upgraded goods maintained rapid growth. With the continuous optimization and improvement of market supply and the continuous promotion of green environmental protection concepts, residents' demand for quality consumption and green consumption has gradually increased. In 2022, the retail sales of books, newspapers and magazines and cultural office supplies of units above designated size will increase by 6.4% and 4.4% respectively, which is significantly higher than the average retail sales of goods. According to the Automobile Dealers Association, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles will be about 5.67 million units in 2022, an increase of 90% over the previous year.
Fifth, the scale of the mainland consumer market is large and full of potential, and consumption continues to upgrade and develop
The long-term improvement of consumption development and the fundamentals have not changed. Judging from the recent situation, with the optimization and implementation of epidemic prevention and control policies and the orderly recovery of consumption scenarios, the consumption of contact-based services such as catering that was greatly affected by the epidemic in the early stage has begun to improve. From the perspective of long-term development potential, the total population of the mainland exceeds 1.4 billion, the urbanization rate has steadily increased, and the rural market contains great potential, which strongly supports the stable recovery and development of the mainland consumer market.
The trend of consumption upgrading has not changed. In the past few years before the outbreak of the epidemic, household consumption has shown an upgrading development trend, even if it is affected by the epidemic, the development trend of consumption upgrading has not changed. At present, residents' demand for quality continues to increase, the concept of green environmental protection is more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the willingness to serve consumption is still strong. With the innovation and expansion of consumption scenarios, residents' income has grown steadily and market supply has been continuously improved, and the consumption structure will continue to be optimized and upgraded.
Although the epidemic has had a greater impact on the recovery of the consumer market in 2022, it should also be noted that the resilience and potential of the consumer market are still great. In 2023, with the further implementation of the optimization and adjustment measures for epidemic prevention and control, the in-depth implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, and the acceleration of the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation, the foundation for the stable recovery of the consumer market will be more solid, and the consumer market is expected to recover.
(Author: Dong Lihua, Director of the Department of Trade and Foreign Economic Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics)