Crude oil:
Table I International crude oil prices
Unit: USD/barrel
| crude | Closing | Change |
| WTI 02 | 80.18 | +0.32 |
| Brent 03 | 85.92 | +1.46 |
China's GDP and December crude oil import data for the fourth quarter of 2022 were better than expected, and international oil prices continued to rise.
International crude oil closed higher: NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract 80.18 rose 0.32 US dollars / barrel or 0.40%; ICE oil futures 03 contract 85.92 rose $1.46 a barrel or 1.73%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2303 rose 3.4 to 544.2 yuan / barrel, and rose 10.1 to 554.3 yuan / barrel in overnight trading.
Domestic refined oil market:
1) Market Focus:
(1) Yesterday's rise in gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong was the mainstay, of which the increase in gasoline was concentrated at 150-200 yuan / ton; The increase in diesel remained below 100 yuan / ton (Shandong).
(2) Yesterday, Shandong georefinery shipments improved, and refinery production and sales were basically flat (Shandong).
2) Future market forecast:
Yesterday, Shandong local gasoline and diesel shipments continued to improve, which played a certain supporting role in the domestic gasoline and diesel market; Coupled with the rise in international crude oil prices overnight, it is conducive to the market entry mentality. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel in refineries will continue to rise today, but the overall increase will be slightly lower than yesterday, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton.
Price adjustment warning:
As of January 17, the comprehensive change rate of crude oil is 3.41%, and it is expected that the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail price limit will be raised, and the next round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on February 3.
Macro aspects:
1) Global economic growth is expected to bottom out in 2023, despite the ongoing war in Ukraine and rising interest rates, said International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Georgieva. Speaking at a panel meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Georgieva confirmed the IMF's forecast that global growth will decelerate to 2.7 percent this year from around 3.2 percent last year. Georgieva said three very significant challenges are the Russian-Ukrainian war, the cost-of-living crisis and interest rates at levels not seen in decades.
2) The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said oil demand in Asia will rebound this year and boost global growth due to the easing of Covid restrictions, and OPEC expressed optimism about the world economic outlook for 2023. In its monthly report, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 2.22 million b/d, or 2.2 percent, in 2023, unchanged from last month's forecast. OPEC expects Chinese demand to grow by 510,000 b/d in 2023.
3) The Ukrainian National News Agency reported on the 17th local time that Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmegal said at the government work conference on the same day that the large-scale missile attack launched by the Russian army on Ukraine on the 14th had devastating consequences for the Ukrainian energy industry, with 1 thermal power plant in eastern Ukraine and 8 thermal power plants in the west damaged, in addition to three substations damaged. He said that this has led to an increase in the power gap in Ukraine, forcing some areas to implement emergency power outages every day since the 15th.
4) On the 17th local time, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced the expansion of the list of EU citizens banned from entering Russia, which is a response to the ninth round of EU sanctions against Russia.
5) Russia expects that sanctions will significantly affect oil products and is expected to increase crude oil exports.
6) Oil production in large U.S. shale regions will increase by about 77,300 b/d in February to a record 9.38 million b/d, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. The EIA forecasts that total gas production from large shale basins will increase by 500 million cubic feet per day in February to a record 96.7 billion cubic feet per day.
(Macroeconomics comes from the Internet)