In 2022, the new energy vehicle track has become an important ballast stone for the economy, from a macro point of view, China's automobile production and sales completed 27.021 million and 26.864 million units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1%, leading the global car market for the fourth consecutive year, from a micro point of view, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 7.058 million and 6.887 million units, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 96.9% and 93.4%, and the market share reached 25.6%, 12.1% higher than last year.
Among them, the best sales are still this batch of "affordable" new energy vehicles in the 10-20 range, with cumulative sales reaching 1.855 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1 times, and sales are also approaching the head enterprises, with the cumulative sales of the top ten companies exceeding 5.67 million units, and BYD alone occupying a share of more than 1.8 million units.
From the blooming of flowers in the initial period to the emergence of giant crocodiles after the development tends to be stable, in just over five years, we have sent away countless new forces in car manufacturing, and we have also seen the swing, struggle and active embrace of traditional manufacturers, everything is getting better, and each has a very optimistic expectation for sales in 2023.
Is it blind optimism or taken for granted? Everything is traceable.
In domestic sales, BYD, SAIC-GM-Wuling and Tesla ranked in the top three, with 4 companies selling more than 200,000 units, namely 304911 Geely Automobile, 273757 GAC Aion, 221157 Chery Automobile, and 221227 Changan Automobile, and six brands exceeding 100,000 units, namely 148661 Nezha Automobile, 133246 ideal cars, 123,920 Great Wall Motors, 122486 NIO, 120757 Xpeng cars, 111168 Leap cars.
Although various information channels are conveying to you that the new force model is the future, but as the big manufacturers invest funds in the new energy track regardless of the cost, they have gradually established consumer confidence, and relying on the existing production and marketing system, stabilize the basic plate and strive to expand outward, and complete the switch of the track.
In addition, the decline of new energy subsidies in 2023 has made all OEMs that have cut into the new energy track or have just begun to transform realize that the cruel and bloody price war and involution competition that really bayonets are red are inevitable, as an insider said, "I thought the new energy market was a blue ocean, jumped in and found it was a red ocean", I have to make up a knife, the "new energy track" is overly optimistic, here has been killed into the black sea, and is against the inflation countercurrent flying.
In 2022, the chip shortage crisis is still continuing, and Extreme Krypton 001 for the owner to replace the 8155 chip for free is almost the purchase cost of 3.5 small targets according to the price that has fallen at that time, not counting the related labor costs, and every new car sold in the future is to supply the chip factory.
Power battery materials have soared, although the price of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other raw materials fell in the second half of the year, battery procurement costs still weighed down every main engine factory, and the last laugh is CATL, according to the performance forecast released by CATL, the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2022 will be 29.1 billion yuan - 31.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 82.66% - 97.72%.
At the same time, the price of commodities is also pushing up, not affected by the slowdown in global economic growth, steel, rubber, aluminum alloys and other essential raw materials are also rising, even fuel vehicles that have been relying on the "welfare" of small facelifts to adjust prices have also shrunk the preferential strength, the surface situation is very good, in fact, the cold has been transmitted in every link of the industrial chain.
In the end, the ultimate question for practitioners arose, have we been working for a battery factory? Been working for a chip factory?
In the early years, China's new energy market was mainly concentrated below 100,000 yuan, which was basically the "small and beautiful" route that Li Xiang once fantasized about, but from 2022, the real power of new energy is the waist, especially 150,000-300,000, which was once firmly mastered by the joint venture factory.
The invisible price ceiling that the independent brand has undergone thousands of hardships on the fuel track but is still difficult to break through has quietly dissolved in the new energy era.
The efforts of BYD and Tesla have caused a devastating blow to the most profitable range of fuel vehicles in the past, and the slogan of "those who win the intermediate car market win the Chinese car market" has not fallen for many years, and has also achieved the name of the top three Japanese joint ventures, but in 2022, who will pay attention to the sales of fuel vehicles? Even within the joint venture main engine plant, it is still the production and sales of new energy, and I don't know how many engineering R&D teams and sales personnel are sleepless at night.
The new energy cake has become bigger, and now we are facing the problem of distribution.
Tesla's idea is that if you want to replace fuel vehicles with electric vehicles, it is impossible to rely on Tesla alone, so to contribute technology and get more friends and eat tigers, which is completely opposite to the Japanese brand playing hydrogen power to put all the eggs in its own basket, and finally Tesla won the bet.
The cake is bigger, the total amount is bigger, and everyone gets rich together.
Externally, it is the involution war launched by electric vehicles against fuel vehicles, and internally, it is to show their talents, get more money to survive, make their own brand before the traditional fuel main engine factory reacts, and establish its own advantage system.
Maximize resource utilization? What does not exist, distribution is always an unsolvable problem. I think when Musk made the release of technology, he must not have expected that there was a company called BYD on the other side of the ocean, in fact, it had silently established a complete set of mature new energy R & D and production systems, and what was lacking was only the moment when the market was pried.
After waiting for so many years, it is not only to compete for a breath, but also to prove how great they are and get the market all in hand.
In the eyes of investors, the price of hardware will be beaten down in the crazy involution, after all, the industry barriers of new energy vehicles are much lower than fuel vehicles, the end of the involution track must be the price war, the value of new energy vehicles, or profit points will also subvert general changes, in the past, automakers mainly rely on selling cars to make money, and in the future, automakers may enhance value for users through software.
NVIDIA founder and CEO Huang Jenxun said this sentence, Jia Yueting praised excellence.
The paid subscription function has gradually been put on the shelf, taking NIO as an example, it not only has a monthly battery rental, but also a high-level NOP navigation assistance and NAD automatic driving function that pays 680 yuan per month.
According to Morgan Stanley, the current car value composition hardware accounts for 90%, software accounts for 10%, and in the future software will account for 60%, hardware accounts for 40%.
More likely, the value of automotive hardware will still occupy a high position in the future, and software will even account for 0%, and the godfather of red Zhou Hongyi is ready to replicate the great cause of 360 security guard to kill the entire virus software industry.
In the future, 5G communication, big data analysis, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, virtual reality, human-computer interaction and other technologies are widely used in the field of automotive services, and their development trajectories have been countless success or failure cases that are enough to be written into MBA textbooks in the Internet industry in the past forty years.
In addition to batteries and chips, another track that has emerged is lidar, lidar has become the most critical component of the current automatic driving, with a very good "money scene", the most typical is Sagitar Juchuang, since its establishment in 2014, has disclosed 11 rounds of financing.
Where you have the most money, you can earn money.
At present, there are more than 20 new energy vehicles equipped with lidar on the market, and Xpeng P5 and NIO ET7 have been widely recognized by consumers with this key configuration to enhance differentiated competitive advantages, and it is believed that with the multi-faceted application of autonomous driving technology, LiDAR that has just entered large-scale mass production will have considerable investment value.
2022 has passed and few will miss it.
2023 has arrived, and countless people have already rubbed their hands, looking forward to greater development in normal life.
The food that consumers missed in three years will not make up for it one meal after another, they will only do the things they have been dragging out in the previous three years, such as filling teeth, such as medical beauty, such as changing cars, such as changing rooms.
In 2023, the relevant supporting settings will inevitably provide more energy for the pillar industry of automobiles, stimulate market consumption vitality, provide stronger value system support for economic improvement, and the shortage of chip supply will inevitably be alleviated, battery production capacity will be further improved, price fluctuations will not be too large, the technology and mass production of core components will also reduce the cost of procurement, can relieve a certain pressure on the main engine factory, and the release of new energy vehicle manufacturing potential is basically a certainty.