As early as ten years ago, that is, in 2012, Tianya God made a precise analysis of Taobao and predicted the rise of social e-commerce and group buying
Don't understand why Taobao mode is sunset mode? It is said that it should be the sunrise mode. Isn't JD.com and Dangdang this model?
Taobao and JD.com are completely different enterprises, let's talk about Taobao. Business opportunities arising from the Taobao crisis - online shopping in the same city Taobao does not open a store himself, he only provides a virtual storefront, and his income comes from renting to the merchant. Taobao is completely a virtual economy, while enterprises such as JD.com are the network of the traditional real economy. To put it simply, Taobao's main business is the rental of online virtual stores, plus the quasi-savings business under the custody of third-party transactions in the form of Alipay. Taobao started out as a free startup platform, and if Wanda is a financial pyramid scheme, Taobao is a business pyramid scheme. Taobao is essentially a portal. It was only later that Alipay made it half a bank. Similar to the portal, Taobao's real selling point is on the homepage of the search, or the so-called shop on the diamond, which happens to be the same as the Amway pyramid scheme, which also has a so-called upper diamond. What supports Taobao is the provision of credit payments for remote online transactions. This kind of nationwide platform is very costly. Taobao's customer service is responsible for both merchants leasing virtual storefronts and consumers. The interests of consumers and merchants are in conflict, and what really brings cash flow to Taobao is the virtual store rental fee paid by merchants, which means that Taobao's customer service can only sacrifice consumers and favor merchants. But any online shopping dispute, Taobao is two ends are not people. If you favor the merchant, the deadliest thing is to sell counterfeit and inferior goods to consumers. Even if a return and exchange service is provided, it greatly reduces the consumer's experience goodwill. Enterprises such as JD.com are directly responsible to consumers like traditional stores. Companies like JD.com can't sell fake and inferior goods, Taobao's goodwill is constantly losing, and the goodwill of companies like JD.com is constantly increasing. Taobao's business model is actually one person facing thousands of competitors. We know that companies like JD.com support online payments with their own credit, so if local website platforms can make credit payments for the popularity of their websites, they don't need the existence of third-party payments like Taobao. The storefront of the network, which is virtual; The location can be moved at any time with the URL. Taobao now has a lot of negative information on the Internet. This poses a crisis of goodwill loss for Taobao's brand. Sooner or later, small and medium-sized shop owners on Taobao will understand that non-homepage shop owners are not profitable at all, and will turn to local credit platforms, or develop local credit platforms themselves. Once this kind of local credit platform is popularized in online shopping in the same city, it is the arrival of Taobao's downfall. If local portals have the ability to develop local online shopping platforms and provide credit payments, Taobao will be dead.
Taobao model = franchisee model? Jingdong model = direct store model? Can it be understood this way?
No, even franchisees, can not sell fake goods, right, Taobao only provides stores, as long as the owner pays the store rent, whether the owner sells fake goods, Taobao does not care. Moreover, online stores can theoretically be opened infinitely, and Taobao hopes that the more stores the better, so that the rent will increase. But for the owner, it was miserable. Without the search page homepage, there is no business at all.
Doesn't the landlord know that Taobao is now vigorously developing Tmall? It is also doing B2C, and you must know that as the earliest merchant of online shopping, Taobao still has advantages in terms of channels, and there are not as many things as Taobao in other houses, and many customers have developed consumption habits. Just as after Microsoft cultivated most users, other operating systems have a hard time catching up.
Microsoft is a monopoly, and consumers don't have any choice. Taobao cannot monopolize online shopping. And the Taobao advantage you mentioned, of course, there is. However, this also does not stop the loss of customers. As I said, Taobao started with third-party transactions to escrow credit, and it will end in this way. Because, for consumers, to score merchants and find out credit merchants is always a burden of consumption, and it is time and energy to pay. In order to buy something, deliberately running to a website is also a burden. If Tianya directly provides online shopping business, I will definitely not worry about Tianya selling fake goods or shipping credit. Isn't Tianya also advertising online Suning now? Once portals and local websites offer online shopping directly, Taobao is pretty much the same. These signs show that in the future, netizens will not go to a shopping website to evaluate the owner, this primitive and backward way. I think we need to wait for all parties to understand, why do you need a Taobao platform? For example, so many users of Tianya have virtual points, basically have no real commercial value, if Tianya exchange these points for shopping coupons or discount cards, Taobao users will be fewer and fewer.
Taobao and JD.com, I have the same opinion as you. But I am not very optimistic about the local shopping sites you mentioned.
With JD.com's warehousing across the country, logistics has improved. It is very difficult to make a national network. The biggest challenge right now is the transportation costs caused by oil prices. If Jingdong engages in logistics by itself, it may not be able to control costs, especially the cost of the last mile into the city, and the local government can control logistics costs.
The Taobao you analyzed is very good, but what you said about the local platform, can you more clearly explain what function it should achieve? And, does it need government leadership?
Any economic behavior does not need to be led by the government, and once the government is dominant, the cost of bribery will increase
I don't quite agree with Taobao Sunset. Taobao's living space lies in its platform positioning. Because he doesn't sell his own goods. So, there are all kinds of shops under it, all kinds of doors. Rich in variety, almost everything is needed, this is the foundation of its invincibility. JD.com runs its own business like this. It is equivalent to the traditional model of shopping malls, things are good, quality is guaranteed, but not something strange. The options are not very large. Therefore, no one can shake Taobao's status in twenty years. Although Taobao now has all kinds of criticisms.
The main problem is that there is only one JD now. It is necessary to wait for these enterprises in Jingxi and Jingbei to come out; There is JD in the north, not in the south. And from the logistics point of view, the partition of South Africa can obviously be a win-win situation. JD in the north, doing business in the south, logistics costs will be a challenge. We are waiting for enterprises in Fujian and Guangdong to come out and do JD.com. If there are 100 JD.com in the Chinese market, does Taobao still have any meaning?
Hello everyone, the content in these documents is the post in the famous Tianya forum of that year
After sorting, taking its essence and removing its waste, and sorting out some exquisite Tianya God stickers, which are no longer visible on the Internet.
At that time, there were many talents on the Internet, and those who could publish articles on the Internet were some knowledgeable people.
I saw a lot of classic content here, and it is no exaggeration to say that some posts can even publish a book after being organized.
Now it's hard to imagine that people back then would have put so much effort into the internet.
Very informative, political, economic, literary, fictional stories and much more, including posts on well-known house price forecasts.
These posts have been time-tested, and it's no problem to come up with some to attract traffic
Especially suitable for friends who are self-media, you can send me a private message to find out.